How dissatisfied are Republicans with their party? How divided are they? These questions, much in the news of late, are key to whether a new Speaker of the House, such as Paul Ryan, can succeed. But they are only one element in a long-running story of deep dissatisfaction with Washington and with both political parties.
A poll this week from CNN and the Opinion Research Corporation provides some evidence. Fifty-two percent nationally were angry at the way both the Democratic and Republican parties were handling the country’s problems. Just 26% said they weren’t angry. Of the remainder, more were angry at Republicans (14%) than Democrats (7%). Sixty-two percent of independents were angry at both parties, as were 60% of Republicans and 70% of Tea Party supporters. By comparison, 32% of Democrats were angry at both parties, and 37% of Democrats were angry only at the GOP.
Frustration with the way Washington works has been a prominent feature of the polls for a very long time. The latest edition of AEI’s Political Report shows that only a third in Pew’s latest poll approve of the job Democratic leaders in Congress are doing, and only 22% the Republican leaders. Approval of the Democratic leaders in Congress in this question has reached 50% in only one poll since 2001. In that same time period, approval has never reached that level for Republican leaders.
Alongside the disapproval of both parties, discontent inside the GOP has been mounting as well. Only 26% of Republicans in a new Quinnipiac poll of registered voters approved of the way Republicans in Congress were handling their jobs (59% of Democrats approved of the way the way Democrats were handling theirs). In a May Pew poll, just 37% of Republicans felt the Republicans in Congress were keeping their campaign promises; 65% said they weren’t. In a YouGov online poll, only 27% of those who identified with or leaned to the GOP felt their party was united, while 53% said it was divided. Given Republican dissatisfaction with their party’s performance, it isn’t a surprise that Republicans are voicing stronger support for one-party control of government. Forty percent of them, up from 24% last year, said they preferred Congress and the president to be controlled by the same party, while 26% preferred different parties and 30% said it would make no difference. Gallup speculates that two things have caused the uptick in support for united control: First, the November 2014 GOP victory that put both houses of Congress under their control and, second, the upcoming 2016 election, where they clearly believe they can be more successful with one party control.
Will new House leadership make a difference for these dissatisfied Republicans? Only 34% nationally in the new CNN poll think new Republican leaders in Congress will bring real reform, while 62% do not. But Republicans (59%) and Tea Partiers (58%) are more confident a new leader will change the way Congress operates. In a recent Gallup poll, 38% of Republicans said a new Republican speaker would make their party more successful in getting legislation they favor into law, but 59% said it wouldn’t make much difference. Republicans who identified with the Tea Party were more optimistic (49% of them said a new leader would, but an equal 49% said it wouldn’t make a difference).
Paul Ryan is very popular among GOP primary voters: in the new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, 50% of them viewed him favorably and only 10% rate him unfavorably. Tea Party identifiers are even more positive about him. Both groups say they feel comfortable with the idea of Ryan as the next Speaker. In the same poll, John Boehner had a 17% favorable and 37% unfavorable rating among those who said they would vote in a GOP primary.
A new Speaker will no doubt lift the GOP’s spirits, but whether he will lift GOP poll numbers remains to be seen. While the GOP clearly has weaknesses in the public’s mind and among its rank and file, the public remains deeply disenchanted with Democrats and Washington in general as well. The GOP’s internal disarray only scratches the surface of the deep problems in public opinion that both parties face.
