Trump legal problems loom large over 2024 GOP field despite Hunter Biden charges

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Second-tier Republican presidential candidates have been harboring hopes the debates will provide them with the opportunity to differentiate themselves from 2024 nomination front-runner, former President Donald Trump.

But with a Trump-appointed federal judge indicating she intends to proceed quickly with the former president’s classified documents court case in Florida amid other legal matters and new entanglements, his run-ins with the law may hinder rather than help his rivals.

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Republicans should be concerned that Trump’s legal challenges, possibly exacerbated this week by his interview with Fox News‘s Bret Baier, make it less likely he will win next year’s general election should he continue dominating the primary, according to GOP strategist Douglas Heye.

“Independent and suburban voters, many of whom supported Trump in 2016 and [President Joe] Biden in 2020, watch all of this and are reminded of the chaos and drama they wanted to go away,” Heye told the Washington Examiner. “And, with it, potential House and Senate races lost with Trump-esque candidates.”

But the Republican field has flip-flopped in its response to Trump’s legal problems, first criticizing Biden and the Justice Department for weaponizing the federal government against a political opponent, then the former president for undermining national security, before turning on one another after biotech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy dared his counterparts to pledge to pardon the front-runner.

“Maybe he could have skipped a couple of rounds of golf and gone through the boxes to respond to a subpoena from a grand jury,” former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie told CBS on Tuesday of Trump.

“I don’t know why some of my competitors in the Republican primary presume the president will be found guilty,” former Vice President Mike Pence said on NBC last weekend.

After Trump’s first indictment last spring in New York for 34 felony counts regarding allegedly covering up hush money payments made to porn star Stormy Daniels, among others, before the 2016 election, his popularity among Republicans and fundraising numbers surged. But early polls after this month’s federal indictment for 37 felony counts related to the willful retention of national defense information and obstructing the Justice Department’s investigation into him reveal a softening in support.

Trump is the preferred nominee for 47% of Republican and Republican-leaning registered voters, down from 53% last month, according to CNN on Tuesday. Gov. Ron DeSantis‘s (R-FL) support remained steady at 26%, while Pence had 9% of the vote, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley 5%, Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC) 4%, and Christie 3%. Other candidates had 1% or less. CNN also found Trump’s favorability among Republican-aligned voters is 67%, down from May’s 77%. At the same time, the percentage who would not back him under any circumstances is 23%, up from 16%.

As Fox News confirmed Tuesday that Baier and Martha MacCallum will host the first debate on Aug. 23 in Milwaukee, Judge Aileen Cannon set a tentative trial date for Trump’s classified documents case the week before on Aug. 14 in Fort Pierce, Florida, though that date is unlikely to hold considering the number of pretrial motions that are expected to be filed.

The night before, Trump defended keeping the boxes of classified documents, claiming personal items were “interspersed” in them, including “golf shirts, clothing, pants, shoes,” repeating he had the power to declassify them, regardless.

“I want to go through the boxes and get all my personal things out. I don’t want to hand that over to NARA yet,” he told Baier on Monday on Fox News of the National Archives and Records Administration. “And I was very busy, as you have sort of seen. I have been very, very busy.”

Trump, too, was adamant he no longer has any documents and that he is not worried about the matter.

“Based on the law, zero. Zero,” he said.

But when asked how Trump’s classified document legal proceedings will interplay with the primary, particularly the debates, candidates underscored perceived double standards between the former president’s federal case and the federal investigation into Hunter Biden.

Trump-appointed U.S. Attorney David Weiss advised the U.S. District Court in Delaware on Tuesday that Hunter Biden has agreed to plead guilty to two misdemeanor counts of failing to pay $100,000 in federal income tax in 2017 and 2018, in addition to taking part in a pretrial diversion program to avoid a felony charge of having a firearm in 2018 despite being addicted to cocaine, a controlled substance.

“The conclusion of Hunter Biden’s tax-related investigation by the admission of guilt is an important step in resolving at least a portion of the controversies over Hunter Biden’s business dealings,” former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson said. “However, it is important for our country to have the whistleblower allegations answered, and the U.S. attorney and the Department of Justice should be transparent in stating clearly the status of the investigation.”

Trump and his campaign echoed House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) by complaining the Hunter Biden plea deal “proves” there is “a clear two-tiered system of justice,” one for Democrats and one against the former president.

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“Wow! The corrupt Biden DOJ just cleared up hundreds of years of criminal liability by giving Hunter Biden a mere ‘traffic ticket.’ Our system is BROKEN!” Trump said.

“All the while, Joe Biden continues to be given a pass by his weak special counsel for his classified documents strewn all across his garage and in his Chinatown office building,” Trump spokesman Steven Cheung added.

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