The Right Opinion
Public Opinion Always Beats Media's 'Conventional Wisdom'
They've tried over and over, the media and government elites who know so much more than the rest of us. They've doggedly done their best to persuade us that, months ago, the economy already had turned the corner back to emerging prosperity.
In February, I wrote a column called "Prepare for the Economic Meltdown." I wasn't then and I'm not now a psychic, or even an economist. Even so, and as I noted in that piece, I used scientific public opinion data to help me read where the economy was going.
Back then, the numbers I saw from our polling suggested that Americans not only were convinced the nation was still in recession, but also that our chances for a full economic recovery in 2011 or even 2012 were not good.
Fast forward to this past week's news, which included one poll showing that two-thirds of the nation still believes we are in a recession. And a Wall Street Journal headline read, "Housing Imperils Recovery ... Consumer Confidence Falls as Pessimism Grows." Many other news organizations published similar sad stories.
Why is it that many pundits so desperately want us to believe that we were emerging from the recession, that the job market is getting better and that growth is returning to the economy? Perhaps it's because if the economy doesn't start improving -- or at least show signs that it soon might -- President Barack Obama's odds for re-election could be far longer.
Well, as of the week following Memorial Day 2011, let it be known with no uncertainty that things simply are not getting better. The conventional wisdom has had it that by hunting down Osama bin Laden, President Obama has made himself nearly impossible to beat in 2012. That view is no longer the conventional one. Rightly so.
Part of my theory that even investors might become gloomy this year is based on the simple fact that too many companies have cut their costs to the bone. This has allowed many of them to make impressive gains on their books compared to the corresponding financial quarter in 2010.
But they simply will not be able to continue doing this. They can't just keep cutting off more limbs and expect their corporate "bodies" to remain standing. And the jobs picture that was supposed to be looking prettier is now muddy again. Some economists believe the nation is on the verge of another Great Depression. This leads to an assessment of the current "conventional wisdom" about the 2012 presidential election. There are plenty of experts with all types of opinions that collectively make up what could be termed "early presidential conventional wisdom."
Among those opinions is the concept that no Republican can beat Obama; that longtime GOP leaders like Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich can't possibly win in this upcoming election's "tea party" environment; and that some new conservative face will be necessary for the Republicans to have even a chance of defeating the president in 2012.
You can take these judgments, lump them with all the other conventional wisdom that's failed to come true over the last year and dump them overboard.
First, remember that as exciting as new blood is in a presidential race, the GOP has almost never won the presidency without a fairly well known commodity as its nominee. Even in 1968 -- arguably the greatest single year of discontent in modern American history -- it was the worn face of Richard Nixon that delivered the presidency to Republicans.
Yes, tea party conservatives are wary of Mitt Romney. But if he catches fire in the primaries, these same tea partiers will eventually hop onto his bandwagon because of the sudden perception that he has what it takes to actually take down Obama in the general election.
As for Gingrich: Yes, his campaign started out with more fumbles than the Carolina Panthers. But if he wins the first debate later this month, his candidacy could easily be resurrected.
There are bright new names that might emerge during the GOP caucuses and primaries, several of which I have written about. Whichever candidate emerges as the Republican nominee -- be it a "new new" personality or the same old thing -- will have a genuine chance of toppling President Obama.
And that, too, goes against conventional wisdom.
COPYRIGHT 2011 CREATORS.COM
5 Comments
JohnH
Thursday, June 2, 2011 at 8:02 AM
Conventional wisdom be damned. It's conventional wisdom that has gotten us into this mess! The Socialism lite, that this administration has been feeding us, is merely a remedy for a slower death!
Jim Torpey
Thursday, June 2, 2011 at 12:18 PM
Unfortunately, aside from all the pundits and prognosticators, the vast majority of the American Public is "asleep at the wheel" with regard to our Country's dire condition and will most probably remain so until it's too late to save.....and we're already about there.
Howard Last
Thursday, June 2, 2011 at 12:40 PM
Romney and Gingrich are part of the Republican Elite that got us into this mess. Romney gave the citizens of Taxachussetts Obamacare lite and thinks Mass. gun laws are fine, just like the hero of Chappaquiddick. Gingrich is a CFR member, think New World Order. When kommandant klinton started closing parks and monuments in 95 Gingrich could not jump fast enough to pass the budget and castigated House members that would not go along. Name one agency, bureau, department, rule, regulation, law, etc. that was abolished when he was Speaker. Both of these ###### (you fill in the words) think they have a divine right to be king (oops President) same as Dole and McCain. And then there is Karl Rove. As Bush the Younger's advisor he brought us No Child Left Behind, incandescent light bulb ban, pushed amnesty for illegal aliens (oops undocumented workers), etc. Now he is now advising the Republican Big Shots (you can't call them leaders). The Republicans are now negotiating with the communists (oops democraps) on the budget. So much for convential wisdom.
J Henry Jr
Thursday, June 2, 2011 at 1:30 PM
We need to get behind Herman Cain, he's our best hope for a stick-to-his-guns-conservative and as a bonus he takes the demo-commies' favorite attack, the race card, off the table.
BoFromTexas
Friday, June 3, 2011 at 5:31 AM
Matt- stop pushing your old boss Gingrich. He is part of the problem with old line Republicans. We must have new blood. Know that any conservative who is attractive (intelligent, good looking, well spoken) are all going to be attacked viciously by the Damnocrats and the media out of extreme fear. The message has to be clear. America was sold a bill of goods in 2008. Is it going to buy another one in 2012? Follow the Reagan candidacy. All the experts said he could not win. But he was sincere with the American people, did not speak typical political BS, and asked, "Are you better off now than 4 years ago?", a very pointed question that could be asked again with a resounding "NO"!" as the answer from most people. Think about all those voters who cannot get jobs, who were laid off, contractors who have no work, laborers who are barely working, part-time employees who cannot get full time work, degreed people cutting grass and sacking groceries for a living. Then the candidate proposes how to fix the problem. Open up the Gulf to drilling and put 150,000 people back to work.Open up BLM and federal lands to drilling and put another 200,000 back to work while reducing crude oil prices drastically. Cut the welfare programs that are sucking the investment money out of America. The dope dealers and high school dropouts don't vote; why worry about cutting them off welfare? Provide for veterans, old folks, and the truly disabled. Quit sending money to countries who hate us. Get our military out of regions of the world where our only interest is oil, and develop our own vast resources. Let America do what it does best, and that is innovation. Our economy may soon sink to levels that will make the depression look like the roaring twenties. The so-called financial and investment people mostly missed the boat in 2008-2009, and will likely miss it again, causing us to lose our savings irrecoverably. When the value of stock goes to zero, it cannot come back. A bold candidate must take this bull by the horns and speak plainly with common sense. No more mealy mouthed slogans like "Hope and Change" (Obama) or "Change" (Bill Clinton), or all of Jimmy Carter's empty promises, or George H.W. Bush's "But I gave you a war and we took back Kuwait!" (3 years earlier, and nothing since). Right now Herman Cain might be able to pick up the guilty white man's vote. One of the conservative women might be able to pick up some women's votes, but not those of the pro-aborts. Another concern is that the conservatives must have poll workers in every polling place to assure that the Damnocrats do not steal yet another election. They have tried in many, and succeeded in some. The way to stop it is to put bold, qualified, and knowledgeable people at every polling place watching the machines and the ballot boxes.