May 23, 2015

Iraq and the White House Time Machine

Everyone had a field day with Jeb Bush’s mishandling of the Iraq question Megyn Kelly posed during a TV interview last week: “Knowing what we know now, would you have authorized the invasion?” Over the course of several days, Bush’s answer switched from a firm yes (“I would have”) to a firm no (“I would not have gone into Iraq”). Other GOP presidential hopefuls, quick to exploit Bush’s fumble, quickly declared that in hindsight *they* wouldn’t have gone to war. Obviously there will be no do-over of the Iraq war authorization; the next president can’t hop a time machine back to 2003. But even as a theoretical exercise, it’s impossible to answer Kelly’s question without clarifying the meaning of “knowing what we know now.”

Everyone had a field day with Jeb Bush’s mishandling of the Iraq question Megyn Kelly posed during a TV interview last week: “Knowing what we know now, would you have authorized the invasion?” Over the course of several days, Bush’s answer switched from a firm yes (“I would have”) to a firm no (“I would not have gone into Iraq”). Other GOP presidential hopefuls, quick to exploit Bush’s fumble, quickly declared that in hindsight they wouldn’t have gone to war.

Obviously there will be no do-over of the Iraq war authorization; the next president can’t hop a time machine back to 2003. But even as a theoretical exercise, it’s impossible to answer Kelly’s question without clarifying the meaning of “knowing what we know now.”

Was Bush being asked whether he would have invaded Iraq, knowing how the invasion was destined to play out over the next 12 years? Or was he being asked whether he would have invaded Iraq, had he known what mistakes to avoid in order to achieve the most successful outcome? If the former, then the question was whether the war on balance was worth its costs. If the latter, it was whether, in retrospect, the war and its aftermath could have been managed more successfully. Those are very different queries, to which a thoughtful candidate might well give very different answers.

But why revisit only 2003? As long as we’re asking presidential contenders what lessons they draw from George W. Bush’s decision — widely supported at the time, remember — to topple Saddam Hussein, why not ask whether, “knowing what we know now,” they would repeat other historical presidential decisions.

For example:

Would the men and women campaigning for president today have signed the Iraq Liberation Act, as President Clinton did in 1998, thereby making Saddam’s removal from power a matter of explicit US policy?

With 20/20 hindsight, would they have ended the Gulf War after just 100 hours, as President George H. W. Bush did in 1991? Would they, like the first President Bush, have explicitly encouraged the Iraqi people to overthrow Saddam — but then, when Kurds and Shi'ites heeded his call, done nothing to stop the dictator from savagely crushing the uprising?

Or take the more recent decision, by President Obama in 2011, to pull all American troops from Iraq, rather than negotiate a new Status of Forces agreement to maintain a substantial US military presence. That wholesale withdrawal — which was also widely supported at the time — created a vacuum that ISIS and Iran have filled with blood and terror. Knowing what we know now, would the candidates have brought those troops home?

History is always messy, especially the history of wars and their aftermath. Intelligence failures, battlefield misjudgments, diplomatic fiascoes, wavering public opinion — these have played a role in nearly every conflict, including those we recall with approbation. Rarely does the decision to fight proceed as expected. The same is true of the decision not to fight.

World War II, the “good war,” the war to liberate Europe from Adolf Hitler, ended with America acquiescing in the enslavement of Eastern Europe by Joseph Stalin. The Civil War was envisioned as a quick and decisive Northern campaign to put down a Southern rebellion; it turned into grinding, appalling four-year bloodbath. President Reagan chose to withdraw rather than retaliate after US Marines on a peacekeeping mission in Lebanon were killed by Hezbollah and its Iranian sponsor. That was a signal of weakness that helped convince Osama bin Laden to regard America as a vulnerable “paper tiger,” with awful results.

By all means, let’s grill presidential candidates on what lessons they’ve learned from history, and how it informs their approach to national security today. Let’s also remember that politicians always find it easy to tell us how blunders could have been avoided in the past. They’re not nearly so adept at avoiding them in the present.


Jeff Jacoby is a columnist for The Boston Globe.

Who We Are

The Patriot Post is a highly acclaimed weekday digest of news analysis, policy and opinion written from the heartland — as opposed to the MSM’s ubiquitous Beltway echo chambers — for grassroots leaders nationwide. More

What We Offer

On the Web

We provide solid conservative perspective on the most important issues, including analysis, opinion columns, headline summaries, memes, cartoons and much more.

Via Email

Choose our full-length Digest or our quick-reading Snapshot for a summary of important news. We also offer Cartoons & Memes on Monday and Alexander’s column on Wednesday.

Our Mission

The Patriot Post is steadfast in our mission to extend the endowment of Liberty to the next generation by advocating for individual rights and responsibilities, supporting the restoration of constitutional limits on government and the judiciary, and promoting free enterprise, national defense and traditional American values. We are a rock-solid conservative touchstone for the expanding ranks of grassroots Americans Patriots from all walks of life. Our mission and operation budgets are not financed by any political or special interest groups, and to protect our editorial integrity, we accept no advertising. We are sustained solely by you. Please support The Patriot Fund today!


The Patriot Post and Patriot Foundation Trust, in keeping with our Military Mission of Service to our uniformed service members and veterans, are proud to support and promote the National Medal of Honor Heritage Center, the Congressional Medal of Honor Society, both the Honoring the Sacrifice and Warrior Freedom Service Dogs aiding wounded veterans, the National Veterans Entrepreneurship Program, the Folds of Honor outreach, and Officer Christian Fellowship, the Air University Foundation, and Naval War College Foundation, and the Naval Aviation Museum Foundation. "Greater love has no one than this, to lay down one's life for his friends." (John 15:13)

★ PUBLIUS ★

“Our cause is noble; it is the cause of mankind!” —George Washington

Please join us in prayer for our nation — that righteous leaders would rise and prevail and we would be united as Americans. Pray also for the protection of our Military Patriots, Veterans, First Responders, and their families. Please lift up your Patriot team and our mission to support and defend our Republic's Founding Principle of Liberty, that the fires of freedom would be ignited in the hearts and minds of our countrymen.

The Patriot Post is protected speech, as enumerated in the First Amendment and enforced by the Second Amendment of the Constitution of the United States of America, in accordance with the endowed and unalienable Rights of All Mankind.

Copyright © 2024 The Patriot Post. All Rights Reserved.

The Patriot Post does not support Internet Explorer. We recommend installing the latest version of Microsoft Edge, Mozilla Firefox, or Google Chrome.