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A Return to the Norm
· Friday, November 5, 2010
WASHINGTON -- For all the turmoil, the spectacle, the churning -- for all the old bulls slain and fuzzy-cheeked freshmen born -- the great Republican wave of 2010 is simply a return to the norm. The tide had gone out; the tide came back. A center-right country restores the normal congressional map: a sea of interior red, bordered by blue coasts and dotted by blue islands of ethnic/urban density.
Or to put it numerically, the Republican wave of 2010 did little more than undo the two-stage Democratic wave of 2006-2008 in which the Democrats gained 54 House seats combined (precisely the size of the anti-Democratic wave of 1994). In 2010 the Democrats gave it all back, plus about an extra 10 seats or so for good -- chastening -- measure.
The conventional wisdom is that these sweeps represent something novel, exotic and very modern -- the new media, faster news cycles, Internet frenzy and a public with a short attention span and even less patience with government. Or alternatively, that these violent swings reflect reduced party loyalty and more independent voters.
Nonsense. In 1946, for example, when party loyalty was much stronger and even television was largely unknown, the Republicans gained 56 seats and then lost 75 in the very next election. Waves come. Waves go. The republic endures.
Our two most recent swing cycles were triggered by unusually jarring historical events. The 2006 Republican "thumpin'" (to quote George W. Bush) was largely a reflection of the disillusionment and near-despair of a wearying war that appeared to be lost. And 2008 occurred just weeks after the worst financial collapse in eight decades.
Similarly, the massive Republican swing of 2010 was a reaction to another rather unprecedented development -- a ruling party spectacularly misjudging its mandate and taking an unwilling country through a two-year experiment in hyper-liberalism.
A massive government restructuring of the health care system. An $800 billion-plus stimulus that did not halt the rise in unemployment. And a cap-and-trade regime reviled outside the bicoastal liberal enclaves that luxuriate in environmental righteousness -- so reviled that the Democratic senatorial candidate in West Virginia literally put a bullet through the bill in his own TV ad. He won. Handily.
Opposition to the policies was compounded by the breathtaking arrogance with which they were imposed. Ignored was the unmistakable message from the 2009-10 off-year elections culminating in Scott Brown's anti-Obamacare victory in bluer-than-blue Massachusetts. Moreover, Obamacare and the stimulus were passed on near-total party-line votes -- legal, of course, but deeply offensive to the people's sense of democratic legitimacy. Never before had anything of this size and scope been passed on a purely partisan basis. (Social Security commanded 81 House Republicans; the Civil Rights Act, 136; Medicare, 70.)
Tuesday was the electorate's first opportunity to render a national verdict on this manner of governance. The rejection was stunning. As a result, President Obama's agenda is dead. And not just now. No future Democratic president will try to revive it -- and if he does, no Congress will follow him, in view of the carnage visited upon Democrats on Tuesday.
This is not, however, a rejection of Democrats as a party. The center-left party as represented by Bill Clinton remains competitive in every cycle. The lesson of Tuesday is that the American game is played between the 40-yard lines. So long as Democrats don't repeat Obama's drive for the red zone, Democrats will cyclically prevail, just as Republicans do.
Nor should Republicans overinterpret their Tuesday mandate. They received none. They were merely rewarded for acting as the people's proxy in saying no to Obama's overreaching liberalism. As one wag put it, this wasn't an election so much as a restraining order.
The Republicans won by default. And their prize is nothing more than a two-year lease on the House. The building was available because the previous occupant had been evicted for arrogant misbehavior and, by rule, alas, the House cannot be left vacant.
The president, however, remains clueless. In his next-day news conference, he had the right demeanor -- subdued, his closest approximation to humility -- but was uncomprehending about what just happened. The "folks" are apparently just "frustrated" that "progress" is just too slow. Asked three times whether popular rejection of his policy agenda might have had something to do with the shellacking he took, he looked as if he'd been asked whether the sun had risen in the West. Why, no, he said.
(c) 2010, The Washington Post Writers Group
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RiverKing
Krauthammer's cynical view from inside the Beltway apparently doesn't include our awakened electorate. Recycled political activists is one thing Tea Partiers are not. The Tea Party movement is typically populated and led by average people who have never in their lives done anything more politically active than vote...occasionally. And we are actively and successfully recruiting younger people. We are in this for the long haul.
Old salts and newly elected should understand that an awakened electorate is watching like never before. Those who revert to 'business as usual" will quickly become targets and 2012 is just over the horizon.
Posted November 5, 2010 at 9:08:51 AM
KatGra
The arrogance of this administration will be its downfall. It led to the trouncing on Tuesday and it followed it. Obama is the only one who refuses to CHANGE. The rest of the country appears to want to in a very bad way! There is where I have HOPE!!!! In the people!!
Posted November 5, 2010 at 9:25:24 AM
Jeri
Do not underestimate the Tea Pary. I live in MA and was very disappointed with some of our elections here on Tuesday. And, I am very angry at our State Republican Party who did little to nothing to promote some of the excellent candidates we had. It appears to me that the only people with "juice" these days is the Tea Party. This republican will be attending her first Tea Party meeting this coming Wednesday evening. I hail from a large military family and I guess it is time for me to step up and participate in making a difference. I feel my party has no interest in me and they continue to ride the mantra of "what do you expect from a blue state". I expect you to get out and fight, especially when the battle was yours to win and you blew (not to be confused with blue)it!
Posted November 5, 2010 at 12:07:13 PM
Bill
Bravo Jeri! Time to take the Republican party back from those who can't distinguish between pragmatism and compromising principles!
Posted November 5, 2010 at 1:47:59 PM
Roger McBee
I'm in agreement with RiverKing on this one. And Charles, with all due respect, the Republicans did receive a mandate of sorts: no more business as usual. If there is business as usual, then the Republicans should be tossed out on their noses, and I'll help do it. Tea Party favorite Marco Rubio said it best:
""We make a great mistake if we believe that ... these results are somehow an embrace of the Republican Party. What they are is a second chance, a second chance for Republicans to be what they said they were going to be not so long ago." --Senator-elect Marco Rubio (R-FL) as noted on The Patriot Post
Posted November 5, 2010 at 1:59:19 PM
Michael
AMEN!!! RiverKing. I like Krauthammer's views as a rule but I also believe he is wrong on this one. This is not the typical cycle as he shall soon see.
Posted November 5, 2010 at 3:06:32 PM
Jim
I agree Jeri - I live in Western New York - part of the Socialist Republic of new york - I am disgusted that those who voted for health care were all re elected - as well as all the other wealth redistributing demoncrats in my area - we are not all liberal demoncrats here - we have tea party groups - we will keep fighting to stop the destruction of America.
Posted November 5, 2010 at 4:19:07 PM
WOB
Has anyone noticed what the Republicans have been doing since trouncing the Dems this past Tuesday? You'd think they'd be out on every street corner and soapbox shouting about how Americans had awakened in time to see the sham that Liberalism is. That Americans had finally got to see Liberalism in all it's "glory" ... had watched how it has taken us to record debt ... swallowed up our healthcare system ... taken more control from states ... had divided Class and race.
But no ... what were they doing? Attacking the Tea Party!!! That's right ... it was the Tea Party's fault that they had not won the Senate! If it had not been for O'Donnell, or for Angle ... or for Miller ... blah, blah, blah. Here we are at one of the great moments in Conservative history and we're shooting our own.
Good Grief ....
Posted November 5, 2010 at 6:21:16 PM
BoFromTexas
Krauthammer-- you need to get out of the office and walk around and talk to folks. This was not the normal recycle. I have been participating in elections since Goldwater/Johnson, and I ain't never seen spirit and anger and resolve like this. To hell with the Republican party. They haven't been toeing the line or following conservative policy for a long time. I am not kidding when I say that we were a few weeks away from an armed revolution, something I did not want, but as one of our founders said, the tree of liberty needs to be occasionally watered with blood. The Tea Party is not a bunch of stupid rednecks spitting tobacco. It is the base of what used to be the Republican party. Did you notice that despite some great independent and libertarian candidates, the Tea party stuck together to avoid another Bush Sr./Ross Perot/Bill Clinton type fiasco in the various house and senate races, as well as governors' races. I predict that if anybody wants to get elected in the next eight years, they had better get real cozy with the Tea Party. I am willing to write off California and Massachusetts forever. They can have each other. The Republican party is on life support right now, and the kill switch is in the hands of the Tea Party.
Posted November 5, 2010 at 7:53:43 PM
Mumsie
This is the first time that I can remember that we, the people, actually had a choice that was not between "bad" and "worse."
We, the people, are supposed to restrain the government, because it always wants to grow. Republican or Democrat.
It's sort of like intestinal bacteria. Necessary for life, but it cannot be allowed to run wild.
Posted November 5, 2010 at 8:42:39 PM
Gregorial
Govt as intestinal bacteria. That has to be the GREATEST and most appropriate analogy I have ever heard constructed. Bravo!
Viva Rubio! 2016 baby, mark my words...
Posted November 6, 2010 at 12:21:18 AM
Mudgie
As a resident of Illinois I am a frustrated member of the conservative libertarian wing of the republican party, a.k.a. the tea party. Look up the Illinois county map for governer and you'll see 99 red counties with four blue counties. This netted us a blue governer and a purple senator. The tea party needs to start focusing on informing the 99 remaining counties that the inner-city minority vote and the near-insurmountable urban machine politics CAN be overcome. This will require a significantly energized ground game in a lot of rural areas. Pining on blogs like this will do little to effect change at that level. Listen tea partiers, you need to take the battle to the country-class. Most are puzzled about the leadership they end up with. Do the math - 125 republican votes per red county would have given us a republican governer! Is that too difficult to accomplish? Can it be replicated in the other states with urban machine politics overruling the will of the conservative majority? YES IT CAN! (to borrow a concept)
Posted November 6, 2010 at 12:15:01 PM
Clarence De Barrows
I have an honest question for those of you who are impressed with Marco Rubio. I am hard pressed to understand why he is allowed to fly under the radar on this, but he, early on, expressed his displeasure with Arizona's SB-1070 calling it racist and, further, he opined that it was sure to result in overreaction on the part of law enforcement and, among other things, result in racial profiling. Such thinking gives me pause as it doesn't sound like the opinion of a thinking conservative, yet the Republican party seems enamored with Rubio's credentials. Does the acronym RINO ring a bell?
Posted November 6, 2010 at 5:59:08 PM
michele
sorry, charles. Scott Brown didn't win in MA because of the "anti-Obamacare". See, here in MA, we already have a health care system that covers 97% of the commonwealth.
We just said NO to rolling our taxes back to 3% and we went bluer than blue. Yes, we have some rapid "tea partiers" here in MA - no doubt about it. But the majority of MA, including indies, are sane people. We like our higher standard of living for ALL, not just the chosen few.
Scott Brown is toast in 2012, despite the fact he would be considered a democrat in the southern states. He has been a major disappointment for MA citizens.
Posted November 7, 2010 at 12:40:56 AM
karl anglin
Never believe anything in politics
until it has been officailly denied.
---Otto von Bismark (1815-1898)
Posted November 7, 2010 at 4:46:31 PM
Candyman
I take issue with Krauthammer's assertion that Bush lost because of "2006 Republican "thumpin'" (to quote George W. Bush) was largely a reflection of the disillusionment and near-despair of a wearying war that appeared to be lost." The 2006 and 2008 losses were due to an unrelenting assault on Everything that Bush said or did during the previous 6 years. I get frustrated when we hear our learned friends spouting nonsense about what happened in the first 6 years of George Bush's administration. He was constantly under fire by the Radical, Left-wing Liberal Lame-stream-media. I challenge anyone to withstand that kind of assault and survive with the exception of Ronald Reagan!
Posted November 8, 2010 at 1:34:03 PM
57Cynic
Wow, Mr Krauthammer, I respect your opinion a great deal but I am shocked that not even you can see what happened. We the People stood up and shouted at the pols. Apparently we need to do it to the pundits too. Come on and be part of the solution. Not an apologist part of the problem.
Posted November 8, 2010 at 3:12:29 PM
Kendall47
Michelle and the other denizens of the People's Republic of Massachusetts, like those of RI and CT, remain politically comotose.
She thinks prosperty is delivered by government through wealth redistribution. These three states, as well as CA, NY and others, are caught in the web set by the public employee unions and the antiquated notion that the Democrat Party is the party of the working man. Problem is, the government employees have gathered all the marbles and too many of the rest of the electorate have not cauht on yet (including the clueless Michelle). The unions operate with a huge war chest extracted from hardworking private sector employees who do not enjoy the generous salaries and benefits of their public sector brethren, but which they are nevertheless forced to subsidize. The voters in these states, unlike those in the heartland, will eventually catch on once they connect their states fiscal woes, and their own, to those unions and the Democrat Party. The Tea Party has just begun to fight, and look what we have accomplished already.
Posted November 8, 2010 at 4:36:01 PM
Just saying
I got to thinking, in view of the election results: we should propose that the blue states form their own country, a seccession of blue from red states, with the people free to move to one or the other. Let the ones who want socialism try it on their own, and not impose it on the rest of us, and let us live our lives free from government control and benevolence. And then Michelle, and her ilk will see who the sane ones are. Ever since I came to this country I wanted that the ones preaching equality and redistribution be able to get a taste of their own medicine, but the real deal, not the elite life of the leaders...
Posted November 8, 2010 at 5:05:32 PM
Kendall47
Just Saying: This is a brilliant suggestion. This would be true poetic justice. Leftists should be forced to live with the consequences of their own stupidity. We can start by making sure that CT, RI, NY, CA and other blue states get NO bailouts. Let their public employee unions pay for their budget deficits.
Posted November 8, 2010 at 7:10:00 PM
picante
As a witness to the cycles of governance the electorate has sent to Washington, Krauthammer might just be thoroughly delighted if the 'awakening' of this electorate turned out to be genuine. Human nature is a hard thing to 'swing' entirely to a new mindset, and the prevailing winds in D.C. have yet to be proven to contain the constant fragrance of liberty for which we hope. As many have already stated, the Republicans are back in the majority, but on probation. I sincerely trust that they will take to the capitol not the elation of political victory, but the sobriety of high responsibility coupled with a sensitive ear to those who sent them. If not, I'm not sure where our electorate will turn at their next opportunity.
Posted November 9, 2010 at 2:44:15 AM