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Unintended Consequences: The Problem With Syria
· Friday, February 24, 2012
What should our leaders think about as they consider aiding the Syrian rebels?
If the past decade taught Americans anything, it is that there is no getting around the law of unintended consequences, especially in foreign policy.
No matter how good our intentions might be or how carefully we plan, once we "cry havoc and let slip the dogs of war" we no longer control events, they control us.
As I said, this should be obvious by now. But apparently it isn't.
It is difficult to read the news about Syria and not be appalled. As I record this, forces loyal to president Bashar al-Assad are shelling the city of Homs, which according to Reuters, "has been at the heart of the uprising against Assad's 11-year-rule."
The scene is eerily reminiscent of what happened in Hama thirty years ago almost to the day: forces led by al-Assad's uncle and acting at the behest of his father, leveled the city as part of the regime's war against the Muslim Brotherhood. Between ten and twenty thousand people were killed.
Apart from the Syrian government, nobody wants to see history repeat itself. The question is: How do we stop it? Syria has ignored entreaties from the UN and the Arab League. Economic sanctions are too slow to prevent the killing, if they work at all.
It's not surprising, then, that at the Republican debate on Wednesday, three of the four candidates suggested some kind of U.S. involvement in toppling the Syrian government. On Capitol Hill, senators John McCain and Lindsay Graham endorsed the idea of arming the Syrian opposition.
Whatever happened to the just war doctrine?
While it may be good politics to want to go after the bad guy, but folks are acting as if the past decade never happened. Set aside the fact that arming the rebels will only prolong the killing. Once again, our leaders and opinion elites are urging the use of military force without thinking about what happens after the "bad guy" is gone.
Syria is a divided nation. The Alawites, who rule the country, are a minority. The majority of Syrians are Sunni Muslims. There are also substantial Christian and Kurdish minorities.
Sound familiar? Actually, there are differences between Syria and Iraq: Many Sunnis don't consider the Alawites to be Muslims at all, and they resent them for the way the Assad regime has treated Sunnis. Because of this, one human-rights activist predicts that a Syrian civil war would be "more destructive in terms of human lives, losses and regional instability" than the Iraqi civil war.
And let's not kid ourselves: civil war is the most likely result of Western intervention. Even if Assad could be persuaded to quit Syria, the rest of Syria's 3.5 million Alawites have nowhere to go. They would be facing the prospect of reprisals. Since they control the Army and security apparatus, they would of course fight.
Caught in the middle of all this destruction, loss, and instability would be Syria's Christian minority, which constitutes about ten percent of the population. Like their Iraqi brethren, their fate doesn't figure prominently in the thinking of those urging intervention.
It figures in mine, and it should figure in yours. While I understand the sentiment that led to the so-called "duty to protect," I also understand the history behind the phrase "unintended consequences."
The question is: do our leaders?
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Steve
Colson asked the question: Do our leaders understand the history behind the phrase "unintended consequences"? If they do, then they have sold out and are being paid to ignore it.
As Colson points out THREE out of four GOP candidates favors intervention in Syria. Of course, we all know that the ONE out of Four opposed to intervention in Syria is Ron Paul, the only candidate advocating a policy of NON-INTERVENTION across the board, not just in Syria.
As one columnist here suggested (perhaps) tongue in cheek, the US should never interfere when one set of muslims is busy killing another. But seriously, the US should stay out of ALL internal conflicts and civil wars of other nations. Period.
Our military should be focused entirely on DEFENSE ----defending US territory and our merchant shipping interests on the seas. It seems a very sick joke that we cannot control our southern border with Mexico but we throw away trillions in treasure, not to mention the blood of young Americans, into harm's way to occupy and police other nations.
The military industrial complex most certainly has "undue influence" as Eisenhower warned in 1961. As such, they are a threat to American liberty and our way of life.
Endless war is fiscal insanity and only one candidate from either BIG-GOV party gets it. Ron Paul gets it. The Founders got it. See Washington's farewell address. Their policy was "trade and friendship with all nations, entangling alliances with none." Thomas Jefferson and later John Quincy Adams, were noted for saying that we are "friends of liberty everywhere, but guardians only of our own." See Jefferson's inaugural address of 1801.
A return to first principles and a wise policy of strictly neutral non-interventionism is the best way to keep America safe and to keep her treasure avoid more debt.
Posted February 24, 2012 at 4:46:22 PM
Howard Last
Steve, you are correct. Besides both sides hate us. The CFR types have to have their way
Posted February 24, 2012 at 4:58:21 PM
mac
Whenever muslims are fighting each other - don't get involved - let 'em kill each other off.
Posted February 25, 2012 at 5:00:41 PM
Terry Webb
We, as a nation, continue to believe that our values are in sync with the values of other nations. We are either naive or completely deluded as to the reality of geopolitics and diverse "cultures"..
There exists "nations" that have a 13th century worldview consisting of societies that celebrate an encapsulation that refuses to accept any outside influences which may "infect" their populace. Exhibit "A": Afghanistan: a nation that has embraced western technology only to the extent that it offers a more efficient method for killing each other. Disagree with their "religion" - we'll express our cultural inferiority complex by exporting our natural penchant for killing to you.
When are we, as a nation, going to accept the reality that everyone does NOT identify with our definition of freedom and do not embrace ANY similarity to it? On the contrary, the Muslims hate this nation simply because they understand their despotism and subjugation of their women are threatened.
STOP nation building, and protect our own culture.
Posted February 25, 2012 at 9:23:24 PM
DaneChile
I have yet to hear any explanation of why Syria is a national security issue for us.
Posted February 25, 2012 at 10:49:12 PM
FairTaxpair
For us, it didn't start that way, but Ron Paul is making more sense to us each day. Other than first aid, we should not be mucking around in another country's business.
Posted February 26, 2012 at 11:10:37 AM
wjmccrindle
The savages are killing each other, so be it. While they are so engaged they are not sending folks to shoot rockets into Israel. That is a good thing, let them solve their own problems, and if they become a problem to other nations (like Iran is doing), then hammer them hard, but until then, let these dogs lie in their own demise.
Posted February 26, 2012 at 12:02:26 PM