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You Can't Go Home Again
· Saturday, March 19, 2011
The biggest takeaway, the biggest foreign-policy fact, of the past decade is this: America has to be very careful where it goes in the world, because the minute it's there -- the minute there are boots on the ground, the minute we leave a footprint -- there will spring up, immediately, 15 reasons America cannot leave. The next day there will be 30 reasons, and the day after that 45. They are often serious and legitimate reasons.
So we wind up in long, drawn-out struggles when we didn't mean to, when it wasn't the plan, or the hope, or the expectation.
We have to keep this phenomenon in mind as we chart our path in the future. It's easy to start a war but hard to end one. It's as simple as that. It's easy to get in but hard to get out. Even today, in Baghdad, you hear that America can't leave Iraq because the government isn't sturdy enough, the army and police aren't strong enough to withstand the winds that will follow America's full departure, that all that has been achieved -- a fragile, incomplete, relative peace -- will be lost. America cannot leave because Iraq will be vulnerable to civil war, not between Sunnis and Shiites, they tell you now, but between Arabs and Kurds, in the north, near the oil fields.
America is scheduled to leave Iraq this December, of course, but everyone seems to be waiting for Nouri al-Maliki's government to request an extension. (A longtime observer told me he thought Prime Minister Maliki would not ask, in part because he assumes that if he gets in trouble the U.S. will come back.) Meanwhile, another observer told me, the December hand-off from the U.S. to the Iraqi government will actually be more like a hand-off from the Defense Department to the State Department, with the part of U.S. security forces played by contractors from Uganda.
In Afghanistan, America cannot leave because it is the 9/11 place, the place that helped 9/11 to happen. America cannot leave because, as the iconic Time cover had it, the Taliban will cut off women's noses and brutalize them in other ways. America cannot leave because al Qaeda will return, fill the vacuum left by our departure, and create a new terror state. America cannot leave because of turbulent, dangerous Pakistan. America cannot leave because from the day we arrived, we invested blood and treasure, and it cannot have been in vain. America can never leave because American troops always bring their kindness and constructiveness with them, and their rule of law. Innocent people will be defenseless without them.
There are always a million facts and forces arrayed against the idea of America leaving. So America has to watch where it goes.
In the troubled future we are entering, America must be prudent as never before, know and respect its own interests and limits as never before. It must be careful of the lives of its soldiers. It must be careful, even, of its purse, which is something we haven't always worried about, but must now, and not only because of the crash and the deficits. What if what just happened in Japan had happened on the San Andreas fault? What if it were a broken American nuclear reactor? You have to keep some wealth and force in reserve, you can't just assume you'll always be lucky.
These are the thoughts I brought back from a trip to Iraq and Afghanistan. I left with the sound of Defense Secretary Robert Gates's speech at West Point ringing in my ears. The time for big counterinsurgency efforts such as those in Iraq and Afghanistan, he suggested, has passed: "In my opinion, any future defense secretary who advises the president to again send a big American land army into Asia or into the Middle East or Africa should 'have his head examined,' as Gen. MacArthur so delicately put it."
Who could argue? No one I spoke to in Iraq or Afghanistan protested Mr. Gates's remarks. They are attempting to do their jobs through the end stages of both conflicts. In Afghanistan especially, the professionalism of the U.S. troops -- we were at Bagram and Kandahar, at forward operating bases; they flew us at night in the dark in C-130s -- is more than impressive, it is moving. They are well-trained, well-educated, skillful, and they would die for you.
Two points worth noting: You are aware in Kabul and elsewhere that the war is the work of a coalition, that the Brits are there and the French, and they fight. Everyone seems to have admired the Aussies; there is sympathy for the Poles, who were treated particularly badly by Afghans because their uniforms and faces reminded them of the Russians. And the logistical challenge of the surge -- the scale, scope and speed of the movement of men and matériel -- has the look of a small managerial masterpiece.
But in terms of a fully believable long-term strategy, the U.S. seems to be scrambling to find a thread that was lost somewhere between 2003 and 2009. We are nation-building in a nation that shows little sign of wanting us to build it. The military surge has been accompanied by a "civilian surge" -- representatives of State, U.S. Agency for International Development and provincial reconstruction teams -- that the Army, in an Orwellian locution, has taken to calling "The Uplift," in hope you will too.
What is ahead for all of the troops is a hard time that those on the ground say they believe will be decisive. Gen. David Petraeus referred to it this week in congressional testimony, but officers in briefings mentioned it every day: With winter over and the fields, including the poppy fields, harvested, the Taliban are about to launch a new offensive. They mean to answer the American surge with a "spectacular" surge of their own -- suicide bombings, assassinations, IEDs, attempts to take back cities such as Kandahar. The American strategy is to beat them back and, in the process, break the back of the insurgency, forcing the Taliban to the bargaining table to take part in a negotiated political settlement. No one can explain exactly how this would happen, or what the elements of such a settlement might be.
The same people who tell you a settlement is the only way out, that the war will be resolved not militarily but politically, tend also to mention, later in the conversation, that the rising generation of the Taliban, the new ones coming up, are believed to be more radical and extreme than those who came to power in the 1990s and were sent packing, for a while, in 2001-02. So we're hoping people who are even more extreme than the earlier Taliban will ask for a negotiated peace?
Meanwhile, support for the war among the American people is falling. The Washington Post this week had a poll saying two-thirds no longer think the war is worth it. Intensified fighting and higher casualties this spring and summer will likely further erode U.S. support.
America has now been in Afghanistan longer than the Soviet Union was; we mark the 10th anniversary of our presence in October. The surge is on, and we'll know more in six months. But I'm thinking of a Pashtun taunt sometimes thrown at Americans: "You have the watches, but we have the time."
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Janine
Actually it is exactly as easy to leave and it was to go there in the first place - the thing that's slowing down the process is 'pride'- yes you went and 'bombed them back to the stone age',' filled them with 'shock and awe' but No, you didn't win and no, you wont.
(Apparently) surprisingly our military and cheerleaders are surprised that the locals hold it against them when their family members are liberated to death - it doesn't take a genius to imagine how it would feel if foreign troops landed in your country and started destroying and killing ( just TRY to imagine what that might feel like and how you might respond).
Anyway ,eventually the USA and friends will leave Afghanistan - its really just a matter of when and how many innocents will be killed between now and then.
Posted March 21, 2011 at 2:33:27 AM
john
From the concept of the Manifest Destiney, now expanded to include the whole world, America, posing as reluctant warrior, has always been a violent, expansionist nation. Violence is in the genes, and in the air we breath as shown by the the crime statistics within the nation, and in the nation's foreign policy. Weapons, from the simple hand gun, to nuclear bombs is the American answer to every disagreement.
Posted March 21, 2011 at 6:05:19 AM
scottinDallas
Gee, before you agree with Peggy remember, a sophist will pander to you, say what they think you want to hear. Where is the sudden concern Peggy? You should follow your own advice, "and keep on walking."
Posted March 21, 2011 at 9:41:51 AM
Dan
We have reached a new low in our American Republic. We have chosen to go to war, without the president so much as asking the Congress to give authorization for the act. Which is worse, an absolute presidency who does not need Congress, or the loss of sovereingty so that the President is bound to the decisions of the UN and/or Nato? Let us mourn the death of freedom at home while pretend to battle for freedom abroad.
Posted March 21, 2011 at 9:54:52 AM
Richard
Interesting article to emanate from a neocon
website. But then again Peggy was never a full
throated neocon.
Posted March 21, 2011 at 10:50:04 AM
Bob D
I can't wait to see how Obomber justifys occupying Libya for a decade or two. Probably the most effective method of choice for these perpetual war advocates is to murder some civilians themselves then blame Gadafi.
Posted March 21, 2011 at 11:05:28 AM
sandy
ron paul had it right when he said if we can march in there we can march out.
it really isn't that hard to do, and that is exactly what we need to do if we are ever going to have any chance of an economic recovery in this country
Posted March 21, 2011 at 11:07:41 AM
Dave
All Presidents Administrations must preserve and grow Pax Americana or they will end up like JFK.
I say let the Crusaders,War Pigs, Empire-Builders, Zionist Lebensraumer Fifth Columnists, Neocons, Armageddonites and Corporatists run amok with their fantasies for a while more...The whole Order will soon massively implode and evoke a violent revolt internally- and eventually return America to a Republic. Realistically, this is the best one can hope for.
Posted March 21, 2011 at 12:11:46 PM
Michael
Our Founders would detest our militaristic, interventionist foreign policy. John Adams advised: Do not go abroad, in search of monsters to destroy.
Posted March 21, 2011 at 12:15:57 PM
Joe
It would appear that it is time to re-read The Art of War by Sun Tzu
He gives clear and approriate guidance to those wishing to enter into a war in his section titled Waging War.
Recommended reading for all of hour elected officials. They could also benefit from the History Channel program on the same subject.
Posted March 21, 2011 at 1:49:37 PM
Phil
Point of clarification: Afghanistan had nothing whatsoever to do with 9/11, and that war was every bit as unjustified as Iraq.
That's a point that damn near the entire nation is as ignorant of as ever, but desperately needs to be learned. Those attacks were supposedly carried out by an individual group, not allied with any state or government; they were planned in Florida and Germany and carried out entirely within the USA. If they had any connection with anyone, it was from receiving support & financing from Saudi Arabia and the CIA.
If the point of the campaign was to capture Osama the official scapegoat, all the White House had to do was say yes when the Taliban agreed to hand him over. If the point was to go after him and his gang, then the American forces should have left Afghanistan as soon as their targets did in late 2001. It should have been a small force with a specific mission, not an entire army running a campaign against an entire population that had nothing to do with a few rogues, who may or may not have still happened to be in the neighborhood.
"It was from here that we were attacked," indeed. Not at all, Barry. Not even close.
Posted March 21, 2011 at 1:59:18 PM
Sammy
Goodness! Listen to the doves flap their jaws. Better to take it to them than have them bring it to us.
Posted March 21, 2011 at 2:23:59 PM
Chris Dowd
Stopped reading Peggy Noonan years ago- I think when she said something along the lines that their are things that our government does that it is best if we don't know about- like murder people and torture them for example. She's a moral reprobate- Irish granny act or not. She's repulsive.
Posted March 21, 2011 at 4:16:31 PM
Luniversal
Peggy sounds more like Pat Buchanan every day. She may write for the Wall Street Journal, but reality is steering her away from the neocon fantasy world of America as everybody's big pal who has to hurt you for your own good. It's good news for the military industrial complex, not so good for the taxpayer.
Once Peggy wrote for the Gipper. No doubt she remembers how he tried to mend fences with Iran and pulled the Marines out of Lebanon.
Three wars against Mideast Muslims at the same time? No satisfactory and honorable way out of two, and another beginning? Sheesh.
The USA is in hock to China yet still trying to play Globocop. This is how imperialist countries die-- when their self-important, self-imposed burdens bankrupt them.
Posted March 21, 2011 at 6:59:59 PM
avatar singh
GEN. WESLEY CLARK: Well, in a way. But, you know, history doesn’t repeat itself exactly twice. What I did warn about when I testified in front of Congress in 2002, I said if you want to worry about a state, it shouldn’t be Iraq, it should be Iran. But this government, our administration, wanted to worry about Iraq, not Iran.
I knew why, because I had been through the Pentagon right after 9/11. About ten days after 9/11, I went through the Pentagon and I saw Secretary Rumsfeld and Deputy Secretary Wolfowitz. I went downstairs just to say hello to some of the people on the Joint Staff who used to work for me, and one of the generals called me in. He said, "Sir, you’ve got to come in and talk to me a second." I said, "Well, you’re too busy." He said, "No, no." He says, "We’ve made the decision we’re going to war with Iraq." This was on or about the 20th of September. I said, "We’re going to war with Iraq? Why?" He said, "I don’t know." He said, "I guess they don’t know what else to do." So I said, "Well, did they find some information connecting Saddam to al-Qaeda?" He said, "No, no." He says, "There’s nothing new that way. They just made the decision to go to war with Iraq." He said, "I guess it’s like we don’t know what to do about terrorists, but we’ve got a good military and we can take down governments." And he said, "I guess if the only tool you have is a hammer, every problem has to look like a nail."
So I came back to see him a few weeks later, and by that time we were bombing in Afghanistan. I said, "Are we still going to war with Iraq?" And he said, "Oh, it’s worse than that." He reached over on his desk. He picked up a piece of paper. And he said, "I just got this down from upstairs"—meaning the Secretary of Defense’s office—"today." And he said, "This is a memo that describes how we’re going to take out seven countries in five years, starting with Iraq, and then Syria, Lebanon, Libya, Somalia, Sudan and, finishing off, Iran." I said, "Is it classified?" He said, "Yes, sir." I said, "Well, don’t show it to me." And I saw him a year or so ago, and I said, "You remember that?" He said, "Sir, I didn’t show you that memo! I didn’t show it to you!"
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Gitmo still open
- Military tribunals ongoing
- Indefinite detention still in use
- Extraordinary rendition to brutal foreign intelligence agencies for EIT
- Renewal of the Patriot Act
- Tripling the number of combat troops in Afghanistan
- Stepped up use of drone asssasssinations
- Dramatic increase in private military ‘contractors’
- Flexible and expanding Afghanistan withdrawal date
and now ...
- Threatening to attack Libya
Yes an act of war within its own country. Not outer. Gaddafi isn't invading other countries or has 1000 bases around the world like the US. Nor is Gaddafi in multiple wars with other countries or have clandestine spec ops in 75 countries like the US. Don't you understand how the US wants to add Libya to that list? Do you know how much mega bad corporations have business in Libya?
============
Posted March 21, 2011 at 7:42:27 PM
liveload
Anytime one decides to go somewhere and kill lots of people, there will be consequences.
Posted March 21, 2011 at 9:46:04 PM
Camille Semaan
Dear Peggy,
You write:
"America can never leave because American troops always bring their kindness and constructiveness with them, and their rule of law. Innocent people will be defenseless without them."
Ironically I just happened to read the following report in the news, a minute before stumbling upon your comment article:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/mar/21/afghanistan-trophy-photos-us-soldier
And here are two quick quotes for those who are never tempted to read past the titles when they are unfortunate enough to be hit by those (not so rare) stories:
"The publication of the photos will also mark the ultimate disgrace of the group of young US soldiers, who are currently facing military justice for killing innocent civilians for sport and mutilating their bodies by cutting off fingers and ripping out teeth to keep as trophies."
"In videotaped evidence, he has said Gibbs would pick out a possible target with a comment such as: 'You guys wanna wax this guy or what?'"
Posted March 21, 2011 at 10:31:08 PM
John M
Nice to see that Peggy has converted to a patriot, from a "nattering nabob of neo-conservatism". What is unexcusably left out is what part Noonan played in echoing the lies and fear-mongering of the Bill Kristol,Max Boot, Frank Gaffney,Paul Wolfowitz Crowd in the prelude to the Iraq War. Glad to hear Noonan has finally rejected the fantasy-based Armchair General mentality of the neo-cons, whose "war is easy" approach has slaughtered so many American soldiesr so needlessly for a cause based completely on lies. Is Noonan now ready to admit the error of her ways in blindly promoted the other main tenet of all neo-cons: that the national security interests of Israel are always and everywhere identical to those of the US? If not, she'll have many more wars to write "dialing-back" columns about like this.
Posted March 22, 2011 at 9:19:45 AM
Brad ONeal
Afganistan is the Graveyard of Empires and has bankrupted us. Let's declare victory and go home.
The real reason we can never leave is that the military chews through money and enriches the Soros types in power allowing them to ride Central Bank inflation to great wealth. The rest of us get crushed but as long as the top and bottom support the Democrats, they'll keep pludering us through the Central Banks monetary policies to stay in power.
Just remember, you can't understand what happens in Washington DC without understanding how it benefits the big banks and financiers of government. Then it all makes perfect sense. Sick and twisted, but perfect sense.
Posted March 22, 2011 at 12:12:59 PM