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Low Turnout and the Big Tune-Out
· Saturday, February 11, 2012
Voters aren't bothering with the GOP, but Obama has lost their attention too.
The Romney campaign is better at dismantling than mantling. They're better at taking opponents apart than building a compelling candidate of their own. They do not seem capable of deepening his meaning, making his stands and statements more textured and interesting. He comes across like a businessman who studied the data and came up with the formula that will make the deal.
A particular problem is that he betrays little indignation at any of our problems and their causes. He's always sunny, pleasant, untouched by anger. This leaves people thinking, "Excuse me, but we are in crisis. Financially and culturally we fear our country is going down the drain. This guy doesn't seem to be feeling it. So why's he running? Maybe he thinks it's his personal destiny to be president. But if the animating passion of his candidacy is about him, not us, who needs him?"
Mitt Romney's aides are making the classic mistake of thinking the voters want maturity, serenity and a jolly spirit. What they want is a man who knows what time it is, who has a passion to reform our country, and who yet holds these qualities within a temperament that is mature, serene and jolly. Newt Gingrich has half the package: He has a passion to reform, but it exists inside a crazy suit. Mitt has no particular passion within an obviously sane suit.
Which leads to Rick Santorum. Nobody in the conservative base hates Rick. Newt is hated by many and Mitt by some. Mr. Santorum is liked. He has real indignation about what's happened to America, and he brings passion to his ideas about reform.
He's got little money, little organization -- there's no broad assumption he can pull it off. And by the time the Romney campaign is done dismantling him, he may have some people who hate him. But this will only underscore the Romney campaign's reputation for destroying, not creating. And nobody loves a Death Star.
Newt's not done and could rise again. I keep thinking of what a sage old pol, a veteran former GOP governor, said two weeks ago. He turned to me in conversation and said, "By the way, don't call it a brokered convention. That's what the media and the Democrats will call it because it implies there are brokers. Call it a contested convention because that's what it will be, contested." Could it really come to that? The odds, he said, are still way against it. "But they're probably the best in my lifetime."
* * *
Let's turn to low turnout in the Republican races. Colorado, Minnesota and Missouri this week were all down, Iowa and New Hampshire were flat, Florida, that Little America, was down almost 15%. All this in a volatile race, in a time of crisis.
What are the reasons? Maybe it's the increasing negativity of the campaign, maybe it's widespread dissatisfaction with the field. Maybe it's that, and more.
There are some small indicators something else may be going on. Cable news ratings, which should spike in an election year, and which indicate interest on both the left and the right, are relatively flat, with mild increases here and there. Broadcast evening news ratings continue their gradual decline. One network anchor, on being urged to capture more of the joy and ferocity of the Republican contest, sighed. "Every time we show those guys, our numbers go down." A major website operator tells me people aren't clicking on political stories.
But it's not confined to the Republican side. Look at President Obama's State of the Union numbers. That speech famously blankets all television and radio networks.
His first speech to a joint session of Congress, in February 2009, drew 52 million viewers. A year later the State of the Union had an understandable falloff to about 48 million. In 2011, another fall: 43 million watched. A few weeks ago his 2012 State of the Union drew just 38 million.
From 52 to 38: That's quite a decline. And again, during a continuing crisis and in a presidential election year. As for the president's interviews and other speeches, well, when was the last time you heard someone ask excitedly, "Did you hear what Obama said?"
Whose numbers are up? The NFL's.
Maybe the story the political class is missing is not "They don't like the Republican field," or "They don't like Obama." Maybe the story is that people are tuning out altogether. Maybe they're bored with politics, and most especially with politicians. Maybe they think our government can't solve anything. Maybe, even, our political class has done such a good job depicting the crisis we're in that the American people, with their low faith in institutions, think nothing, really, can be done about it. So let's check out. Let's watch the game.
* * *
An update on the furor surrounding ObamaCare and the Catholic Church. The Obama White House was surprised by the pushback but hopes it will blow over. Their thinking: The Catholics had their little eruption, letters were read from pulpits, the pundits came out, and then the pols. But life goes on, new issues arise, we'll hunker down, it'll go away. Meanwhile, play for time. Send David Axelrod out to purr about possible new negotiations.
That would be a trap for the church. Any new talks would no doubt go past Election Day, at which time, if the president wins, he'll be able to give the church the back of his hand.
The short-term White House strategy is to confuse and obfuscate, to spread a thick web of untruths about the decision and let opponents exhaust themselves trying to fight from under the web.
The church must be resolute and press harder. Now is the time to keep pounding -- from the pulpit, in all Catholic publications and media, in statements and meetings. For how long? As long as it takes. The president and the more radical part of his base clearly thought the church was a paper tiger, a hollow shell, an entity demoralized and finished by the scandals of the past 20 years.
Now is the time for the church to show it's alive. How?
• Educate. Unconfuse the issues. Take a different aspect of the ruling and its deeper meanings every week, and pound away.
• Reach out. This is bigger than the Catholic Church. Go to the mainline Protestant churches, evangelicals, synagogues and mosques. Plead for vocal, public and immediate support: "If the church is forced to go against its conscience, religious liberty in America is not safe. If religious liberty is not safe, you are not safe."
• Know your people. Mr. Obama carried secular Catholics overwhelmingly in 2008. But churchgoing Catholics were evenly split, 51% to 49% for John McCain. These are the voters the president could lose by huge margins over the ruling. And he will, if they fully understand it. Such a loss could determine the 2012 outcome. He knows it, you know it. Have faith in the people in the pews. Give it to them straight, week after week, and they'll back the church overwhelmingly. The White House is watching. Pound away.
• Call for Democratic support. Religious liberty should not be a partisan issue. Republicans have come to the fore, but it's better for the church if Democrats do too. They're starting to come over. Make clear from the pulpit that members of both parties are absolutely essential in this fight. "All hands on deck."
You can win. Keep the faith. Literally: Keep it.
Third-party content does not necessarily reflect the opinions of The Patriot Post.
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charlie price
What we have is political speech saturation. Obama has been in our living rooms every day for three years. And now it is Republican contenders in endless debates and stump speeches. BORING!!!. Besides, we know you cannot believe what any politician says on the stump---rather, by their past records ye shall know them. If only that had been applied in 2008. So the apathetic primary voter turnouts may be explained by an "any one of these candidates is preferable to Obama" attitude. It is not necessarily indicative of the interest in the general election when it's down to one Republican vs Obama.
By the way, who'd have thought the mantra this election year would be "it's religious freedom, stupid"??
Posted February 11, 2012 at 10:29:10 AM
Vicki g
Ms. Noonan, with regard to low turnout at the primary polls, how about this explanation?
If other voters are anything like me, they hope their own primaries are as far off as possible. That's because they change their minds almost daily between Gingrich, Romney, and Santorum.
Everything you said about the three of them is true. So how does one begin to decide? Gingrich says something inspiring, so I'm with him that day. Then he does something stupid and I'm off of him again and onto Romney. But Romney is such a huge question mark. So then Santorum seems to be the one. But someone in the know calls him wholly "unelectable." I roll my eyes, but that person (and others) say unelectability is a thing to take seriously. I scratch my head, look for the Excedrin, and am grateful the California primary is still a ways off.
My point? Once we have a nominee, we'll come out in force for the General Election, won't we? It's this primary battle that's giving us all one gigantic headache.
Posted February 11, 2012 at 11:43:50 AM
Pamela Heckel
Obama got away with nationalizing the automobile industry, student loans and the banks. He waged war on Libya for NATO without Congressional approval. He thinks he's the Teflon President. If Congress continues to abdicate its responsibility, Obama is right. By the time the Supremes consider any of the legal challenges contesting Obama's actions, his second term will be over. Time is on his side.
Posted February 11, 2012 at 2:58:53 PM
Jim Darlington
There IS a reason Mark Alexander makes space for Ms Noonan.
Posted February 12, 2012 at 10:21:08 AM
wjmccrindle
I beleive low turnout is due to folks not liking any of the remaining candidates, and the conviction that they will vote for whomever is the eventual nominee. I hope all thinking Americans will vote to rid ourselves of this illegal marxist statist islamic fraud. It is not just the Catholics, but all America that is being subjugated by tyranny of the state. Obamao means to rule, his way or the highway, and his re-election would end our Republic for his tyranny. If he wins re-election, it won't be for four years, he will declare his presidency for life, end elections, and he and his illegal czars will rule.
Posted February 12, 2012 at 10:21:12 AM
Gator
I agree alot with Peggy Noonan about Mitt. Santorum however isn't ready, but on the other hand Obama wasn't and isn't ready either. Obama has only proven that we couldn't have done worse and anyone can do this job but at least none of the Republican Candidates will bring the human garbage and baggage with them as did Obama with all of his connections with Communists, Marixts, terrorists and social engineers and a blank check from George Soros.
Posted February 13, 2012 at 11:50:09 AM
TheVonz
Concerning the Religious issue(s) and as related to obamacare....
Since when, in the US, can one person make such overwhelming decisions for the rest of us?... decisions that are against the US Constitution and therefore breaking the law !!!
Our "elected representatives" must do their job and stop this movement to dictatorship and socialism IMMEDIATELY.
This administration has broken MANY laws of the US, and should be arrested and tried for treason.
Posted February 13, 2012 at 1:50:23 PM
Charles R. Lewis
Sen.Santorum. (a)Earmarks worth $483,000,000 on 872 projects in PA ($5 million for Visitor Center which now charges upward of $12 to try to balance its budget.(b)supported Davis-Bacon with Edward Kennedy to curry favor with Big Labor (c)physically embraced (with "W")Specter on TV rather than support Pat Toomey, conservative. (d)"bridge to nowhere" (e)Teapot Museum in NC (f)voted for tariff on steel to support his blue-collar stand (g) voted 8 times to lift the debt ceiling (h)preserved gov't wage-setting regulations(i)supported lifting minimum wage (j)didn't lead in slashing budget (k)Again! SUPPORTED SPECTER!! Yes, he seems a nice guy but not one who will reverse the current disaster--not according to his past reticence.
Posted February 13, 2012 at 2:49:52 PM
John Householder
Peggy and Mark,
I'm fairly certain there are actually four still in the GOP race. What I'm uncertain about is why our media doesn't know it, care to acknowledge it, or dare to intellectually deal with it. This, from a 23 year veteran and one passionate supporter of Ron Paul, who happens to the most consistent of all the candidates.
Posted February 13, 2012 at 3:16:46 PM
Capt. Call
Thank you Mr. Lewis! That is just it! Gingrich, Romney, Santorum----not one of the current crop of candidates, is acceptable! Once again, Conservatives will have to hold their noses while they select the Republican Candidate in November!
Posted February 13, 2012 at 3:26:34 PM
Sherry
Isn't it funny, the message is always directing attention away from the obvious. Ron Paul is generating excitement everywhere he goes and his message is the only conservative message on the trail. Ron Paul cannot be bribed by lobbyists, has the correct position on the Constitution, the correct monetary policy and the correct foreign policy. He also just happens to have the only record of integrity in the field. Yet, he is unelectable because the paid media messengers have decreed he is unelectable and therefore must not be covered. It easy to talk big about how bad it is to take bribes and kickbacks and give quid pro quo back room deals. It is another to actually stand up and say, "No, more." We either elect the one who will do the job or have another 4 years of more debt, more big government, more NATO wars, more unemployment, more rules and regulations, more bureaucratic legislative fiat. You decide. Ron Paul is the only choice we have that doesn't lead to more of the same thing we have had for the last 40 years.
Posted February 13, 2012 at 5:38:57 PM
Steve
Noonan is on to something and is asking SOME of the right questions. Sherry above comes closer to the core truth.
Government AND the political parties occupying it ----- the so-called two major parties are actually just two wings of the same BIG-GOV party) --- are always using FEAR to enslave us and get The People to go along with ongoing slavery and tyranny.
H.L. Mencken explained that governments use fear and use manufactured crisis, "an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary," to control people. Robert Higgs, in his 2007 book NEITHER LIBERTY NOR SAFETY, devotes a chapter to explaining the use of FEAR as a control mechanism. The chapter is entitled: "Fear: The Foundation of Every Government’s Power." This has been true throughout recorded history.
http://www.independent.org/publications/books/book_summary.asp?bookID=68
At every election, we are told that "THIS election is the most important in our lifetimes," with each politician trying to hold or gain elected office. On the one hand, we should resist the tendency to get hysterical each time we hear this fearmongering tale. On the other, we all know that the accumulation of debt and excessive taxation will soon reach a tipping point and start the collapse of the "Hotel of Impossible Promises" --- a collapse that will be catastrophic and unstoppable.
Voter turnout and participation has been falling for decades. The People are realizing in larger numbers that nothing substantial changes regardless of the party (wing) in power. Government continues to grow, its power extends, wars go on and on, debt keeps mounting. Each election, we're presented with a "choice" between two evils: Liar 1 or Liar 2; Crook 1 or Crook 2.
Does anyone really believe that we'd be in a SUBSTANTIALLY better place if McCain had won in 2008 instead of Ohdrama? The wars would have continued as they have. The debt would have stacked, perhaps a Trillion or so less, but it no doubt would have increased. Remember... the GOP controlled the White House and the Congress from 2002 through 2006... and set new records for crazy spending. If Kerry had won in 2004 instead of Bush, would it have been any worse? Probably about the same.
And that is the conclusion more and more would-be voters have reached. Hold your nose and choose one, and it still doesn't change much. Either wing of the BIG-GOV party (the Repubs or Dems) give you the status quo... with just slightly different agendas and priorities for spending. The TOTAL spending and borrowing of 40 cents on every dollar of tax revenue does NOT vary that much.
Our last chance to turn toward Liberty was in 1964. The choice then was Barry Goldwater or LBJ. American chose the path of slavery and more BIG-GOV. The Contract With America in 1994 was just a stunt. We steered right back to status quo.
And yet, in 2008 and again in 2012, there is a candidate who would substantially change the status quo: Ron Paul. He is the ONLY candidate sincerely offering a REAL change from the status quo, a turn back toward SANITY in spending, living within the Constitution, adoption of a sensible non-interventionist foreign policy, the adoption of sound monetary policy to prevent the banksters and the FED from robbing us with manufactured inflation.
Every entity at the public trough, every party that benefits from the status quo is against Ron Paul's ideas for liberty. We're told that Ron Paul is unelectable. Ask yourself WHY. WHY?
Because your masters, the owners and operators of the BIG-GOV party (Republicans, Democrats, profiteers, the military-industrial-complex, the banksters & government dependents), don't want change. They want STATUS QUO, keep the trough open. Just charge our high life style to future generations to pay.
Who is in charge here? The masters? Or The People? Until The People make a stand for Liberty and change, the masters will ride our economy into the ground. Our liberty has morphed into tax and debt slavery...and will end in total tyranny. Apparently, The People prefer to be "affluent" slaves. Liberty is hard. Let's take the easy way out. Surrender.
Expect voter TUNE OUT to increase and TURNOUT to continue declining. That is what our masters want. Adjust your chains and get comfortable.
Posted February 17, 2012 at 10:32:43 AM
Todd C
How can Ron Paul not be considered. Like a couple other people have already posted, He is clearly the best candidate for the job. I support him, not just because I agree with most of his ideas(Which I agree with almost everything he stands for.) It's the fact that he doesn't flip-flop on the issues. He stands by everything he says and never contradicts himself. He is completely blacked out by the mainstream media. You know what that means? Our so called reliable news is blinding you from what is right just because their corporate sponsors don't want change. They want us to stay on this self destructive track. All I keep hearing is "all you hippies want Paul for is to get drugs legal."I hate to tell you legal or not(prescription or not) people are going to do drugs. We need to stop putting people in jail for non-violent drug use. And that's the only issue they think Paul stands for. Ron Paul stands for our rights as the constitution was meant to do. When Obama signed the "Patriot Act" into law that officially waives all your rights if your suspected of committing acts of terrorism.
What they consider an act of terrorism
1. Stock piling food and water.
2. Having a large amount of guns(2nd amendment)
3. Speaking out against the government(1st amendment)
4. They can detain you indefinitely because you might commit a crime(6th amendment)
Those were just off the top of my head, but that alone scares me. Your rights as citizens are gone already. I hope people will learn to make choices on their own because I can not force anyone. I can just speak the truth and hope someone is listening. Thank you for your time. And hope you vote Ron Paul in 2012.
Posted April 16, 2012 at 12:29:45 PM