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The Politics of Budget-Cutting
· Thursday, November 11, 2010
The voters just spoke. They think they want no more gargantuan deficits, massive public spending and exponential growth in government -- or the specter of higher taxes to pay for all of it. No wonder: We are on pace to soon owe 100 percent of our annual gross domestic product in national debt, while compiling the largest annual peacetime deficits in our history.
So cutting the borrowing and spending is inevitable if America is to avoid a Greece-like implosion. But as the blood sport begins, we should remember the strange politics that will soon govern the process.
First, no one ever reduces government in good times, when we are far better able to limit spending, and the public needs less assistance. Cutting happens only after the economy falters and the money runs out.
That fact always leads to a vicious cycle: When the people believe they need public assistance the most, an indebted government is least able to provide it. Recipients become accustomed to the steady additions in federal money they receive and will insist that they can survive only by continual increases, never by their own reduction in expenditures.
Second, tax-raising has limits, as we see from the California meltdown. There, a 10 percent state income tax on upper incomes and a sales tax of nearly 10 percent did not result in balanced budgets, but instead either sent high earners and businesses out of state, or made them stop hiring and buying equipment. Employers will prefer to shut down or hide rather than take risks while they feed the ever-growing state beast.
Third, Democrats are always politically in a far better position to cut federal spending. As the signature party of redistributive change, they are least vulnerable to charges of being needlessly cruel -- in the same ironic way that conservatives give aberrant big-spending Republicans a greater pass, as if their profligacy is somehow out of character.
That paradox may explain why government spending as a percentage of GDP actually shrunk under Bill Clinton, who achieved budgetary surpluses in three of his eight years as president -- but deficits and government spending rose dramatically under George W. Bush. Yet Clinton was rarely derided by liberals as hard-hearted for his fiscal discipline or praised by conservatives for his parsimony. Nor was Bush often lauded as caring by the left for his government generosity, or chastised much by the right for his profligacy.
Fourth, politicians promise the easy cutting of generic "waste and fraud," "foreign aid" or "unnecessary wars." The problem, however, is that waste, wars, and aid this year probably account for less than 5 percent of the federal budget. In contrast, more than 60 percent of yearly spending is devoted to Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid, and Defense apart from war expenditures. Budgetary discipline is impossible without a no-holds-barred discussion of demography, increased longevity, and the national-security perils of unsustainable national debt.
Fifth, self-interest governs the entire debate. Roughly half the public pays no income tax. And roughly half of America either receives all of its income or a large part of it from the federal government. Beneficiaries vote for higher taxes on others and still more benefits for themselves. Benefactors obviously prefer fewer payouts for others and lower taxes on themselves.
Yet political affiliation is not always a clear guide. Despite public rhetoric, many conservatives will privately object to the cutting of any federal benefits they receive, while high-earning liberals might quietly resent having to pay increased taxes to be spent on others.
Sixth, there is always a "you go first" element to budget cutting. The party that imposes discipline is demagogued, even as its opportunistic opposition usually claims credit for the improved economy that follows from the responsible policies of others.
What can the public do? Americans should laud any politician of either party who has the courage to balance budgets, and they should hold accountable any who do not. Budget cutting may be depressing, but not as depressing as bankruptcy (ask the French and Greeks). Do not forget that just as households become upbeat when mortgages and credit cards are paid off, so too will Americans collectively recover their optimism and sense of pride when we are admired abroad for our fiscal sobriety rather than ridiculed for our spending addiction.
And look at it this way: In terms of our collective health and national security, a budget surplus is probably worth more than an expanded federal health-care entitlement, another Social Security cost-of-living increase, or a new aircraft carrier.
(C) 2010 TRIBUNE MEDIA SERVICES, INC.
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J Henry Jr
I don't care how hard it is to slash federal spending, it must be done, period. Our "poor" living on the dole would be considered upper class in many countries. Sorry, they'll have to take a haircut too. No more $100k per year public sector pensions, I don't give a darn what the union agreement says. Just don't raise the debt ceiling. As the money runs out, pay the smallest dollar amount entitlements first and skip the luxo-welfare recipients. Tell the crony-capitalists to take a hike, they're not welcome to any more corporate welfare. Start downsizing and closing the military bases on foreign soil. Sorry, we can't afford to be the world's police force anymore, call the UN. Speaking of the UN, they get a brush cut. We'll pay no more than 2% of the UN's expenses from now on. 1/50th is plenty generous, Libya, Iran and the other "champions" of human rights will just have to kick in their fair share if they want to chair any more committees. Sorry arts and humanities, you'll just have to wait for prosperity again for your turn at the public trough. Shut off the money faucet and we'll figure out what we really need to pay for to survive in a big hurry.
Posted November 11, 2010 at 1:31:33 PM
Tim
Bill Clinton did not really have any budget surplus. The total debt rose every year, as it has since the late 50's. True, the public portion of the debt declined a bit, but not the total.
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/govt/reports/pd/histdebt/histdebt_histo4.htm
Gives the whole picture. The current debt is about 13.7 trillion, mighty close to the GDP.
Posted November 11, 2010 at 1:36:36 PM
Roger McBee
If there's no budget cutting, I suggest that "we go first" and toss those unwilling to make hard choices out on their ear, just as we began to do with the recent election. And let's not let the elected get by with the tired old rhetoric of announcing that no increase in spending means a cut in spending. Apply that principle to your own household. Still believe it? We can get started by slicing at least 10% of government employees and sunsetting the government departments that contribute nothing to our society...can you say Department of Education? Education decisions can be made by communities, counties, and states. And why do we keep spending money on a Post Office that can no longer compete or be fiscally strong? Think of the jobs created by a private system of non-union "post offices", competing in a free market system. The list of potential spending cuts is long. Until the elected consider alternatives like these, it's all still a game of smoke and mirrors, in this reader's opinion.
Posted November 12, 2010 at 2:04:58 PM
Abu Nudnik
I appreciate your work, Dr. Hanson but I hate constructions like this: "more than 60 percent of yearly spending is devoted to Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid, and Defense apart from war expenditures."
Social security = ?
Medicaire = ?
Medicaide = ?
Defense = ?
I like Roger's approach above. Education is NOT mandated by the Constitution: it is a State matter. Airline security is better in the hands of airlines who have a serious stake in it (no one wants to lose their passengers, planes and reputations), etcetera. The post office? It's an interesting point. This may be one of those things Jefferson meant when he talked about change. With the internet, does the country need a national postal service?
Posted November 15, 2010 at 1:20:37 PM
Tex
YEAH,,,,whatever you do,,,DO NOT give our retired Seniors, trying to survive on $1000.00 a month ANY consideration of a cost of living raise! We might have to allow our HOHORABLE REPRESENTATIVES the opportunity to give themselves a $1000.00 a month raise so they cab afford to live in $15000.00 a month apartments while they figure how to cut more of their senior citizens allowable!!!!
Posted November 15, 2010 at 1:46:33 PM
Mike Schuerger Sr
Get a clue, VDH, you are usually much better than this.
"while compiling the largest annual peacetime deficits in our history" - Aren't we in our 10th year of war? This is not "peacetime" just because it is not WWIII (or WWIV)!
"under Bill Clinton, who achieved budgetary surpluses in three of his eight years as president"
Are you kidding me? The GOP class of '94 made this happen, not Clinton. Read the Constitution - all spending begins in the House. Further, no President since NIXON has been able to sequester funds allocated by Congress. Thus, the only thing Presidents can do is suggest spending and sign or veto bills. Repealing that law - that mandates the Administration spend all funds Congress allocates - is one that should be repealed. It is no the dreamed-and-maybe-Unconstitutional "Line-Item Veto" but before Carter, Presidents could use it to rein-in spending.
I think if we start by eliminating all Unconstitutional activity of the Fed, we could cut a lot of spending. (Some things might require a period of years as people and businesses might need time to adjust, so some things might be cut, for example, 20% each year for 5 years.) Some spending might, _might_, be constitutional, but the Fed should butt out already - agriculture comes to mind. Again, this might need to be cut over a few years, but IMO, the "help" is both expensive and harmful, so we should stop spending that money.
The next thing, after we balance the budget, is to pay the debt. I think we could start by selling lots of Federal land -and- actually selling the leases for resource development in wilderness areas like the law says but the government won't. This, for example, is where the Rare Earth metals are that we need and are buying because China has 97% of the market right now. Then of course there is the leasing for oil exploration and drilling.
There is not a surplus today because the Powers That Be don't want one.
Posted November 18, 2010 at 8:00:04 AM