The Patriot Post® · New York Times: Registered Voters Spank Biden, Again

The New York Times published its latest presidential poll, and the outlook for Joe Biden is not getting better.

Under the headline “Voters Doubt Biden’s Leadership and Favor Trump,” the latest Times/Siena poll of registered voters found, among other things, that disapproval of Biden’s presidential performance is now at an all-time high of 47%.

Registered voters were asked, “If the 2024 presidential election were held today, who would you vote for if the candidates were Joe Biden and Donald Trump?”

The result: “With eight months left until the November election, Mr. Biden’s 43 percent support lags behind Mr. Trump’s 48 percent.”

There were other significant details in this poll that were bad for Biden:

The poll offers an array of warning signs for the president about weaknesses within the Democratic coalition, including among women, Black and Latino voters. So far, it is Mr. Trump who has better unified his party, even amid an ongoing primary contest. …

Mr. Trump is winning 97 percent of those who say they voted for him four years ago, and virtually none of his past supporters said they are casting a ballot for Mr. Biden. In contrast, Mr. Biden is winning only 83 percent of his 2020 voters, with 10 percent saying they now back Mr. Trump. …

One of the more ominous findings for Mr. Biden in the new poll is that the historical edge Democrats have held with working-class voters of color who did not attend college continues to erode.

Mr. Biden won 72 percent of those voters in 2020, according to exit polling, providing him with a nearly 50-point edge over Mr. Trump. Today, the Times/Siena poll showed Mr. Biden only narrowly leading among nonwhite voters who did not graduate from college: 47 percent to 41 percent. …

Mr. Trump’s policies were generally viewed far more favorably by voters than Mr. Biden’s. A full 40 percent of voters said Mr. Trump’s policies had helped them personally, compared to only 18 percent who said the same of Mr. Biden’s. …

The gender gap, for instance, is no longer benefiting Democrats. Women, who strongly favored Mr. Biden four years ago, are now equally split, while men gave Mr. Trump a nine-point edge. The poll showed Mr. Trump edging out Mr. Biden among Latinos, and Mr. Biden’s share of the Black vote is shrinking, too.

Predictably, after Democrats have argued for four years that Biden is totally fit for office, the Times/Siena poll also found that 75% of registered voters think Biden “is just too old to be an effective president,” while 42% expressed the same concern about Trump. If elected, Trump will enter office older than Ronald Reagan was when he left office. If reelected, Biden will enter office older than most former presidents were at the time of their death.

It is worth noting that the Times/Siena poll frames the question, “If the candidates were Joe Biden and Donald Trump…” That’s a BIG “if.”

As I asserted 16 months ago, “It’s Official — Biden Will (NOT) Be the Demo Nominee in 2024.” I speculated then that Biden would likely take himself out of the running after the primaries for health reasons, and then the Democrat Convention delegates would choose who will be on the general election ballot. I think there is a substantial probability that this switch is already baked into the Demos’ political calculus cake.

In my most recent column on the presidential matchup, “Trump’s Prospects if Demo Delegates Dump Biden,” I noted: “The probability of Biden being replaced by Democrat Convention delegates ultimately hinges on his polling against Donald Trump at the end of the primaries. The Democrat primaries will conclude on 8 June, ahead of the Democrat Convention the third week of August.”

Currently, though still a political lifetime until the November general election, Trump also holds a narrow RealClearPolitics average of polls lead over Biden — and has held that lead for almost five months. The latest NYT/Siena poll bolsters that lead, and if Trump’s lead against Biden is trending up through the primaries, Democrats will likely pull the plug on Biden.

Further, as noted by National Review political analyst Jim Geraghty: “Since January 31, there have been 21 national surveys of a general-election matchup between Biden and Trump. Trump led in 18 of them, two were ties, and one had Biden ahead.”

And another indicator of Biden’s failing rhetoric this week: In a new CBS News/YouGov poll, Biden, who promotes himself as America’s “savior of democracy,” barely edged out Trump by one percentage point when registered voters were asked who will keep democracy and Rule of Law safe.

It is also worth noting that The New York Times makes clear there are “eight months left until the November election.”

The Demos have yet to begin rolling out their massive national ad campaigns fomenting fear and hatred for Trump.

They will remind their legions of snowflakes about Trump’s erratic communications and arrogant behavior and will rewarm their claims that he led the violent January 6 “insurrection” to overthrow the government. And they will likely find another dead drug thug like George Floyd, whom they canonized as “Saint George,” to launch a sequel to the summer of rage they ignited just before the 2020 election.

Notably, however, fomenting urban violence again could backfire given that it would be on Biden’s watch, and he will be directly tied to it.

Here is what the current polls are not able to predict.

Even in his enfeebled state, if Biden is on the ticket, he could still defeat Trump because the election is not about Biden; it is about all the fear and hatred Democrats can successfully foment against Trump, as they did in 2020 — and the fact that Trump tends to throw gasoline on that fire. Demos are the party of fear and hatred, and they are experts at propagating the hysteria.

Democrats are very effective at using the “Pollaganda Effect.”

Trump has a steep uphill climb to defeat any Demo ticket because the biggest obstacle remains rigged elections. No, not rigged voting machines, as Trump errantly claimed in 2020, or even rigged vote counts in certain Demo strongholds (though I suspect there were some of those). The election rigging is the Demos’ massive bulk-mail ballot fraud strategy — collecting and counting tens of millions of unauthenticated votes.

And a harbinger of the challenge Trump faces in November was made clear by the massive 2022 midterm “red wave” that fizzled into a red ripple.

The only poll that matters is the one in November, but I hope Trump can keep up the momentum all the way back to the White House.

(Footnote: With rising anti-Semite student protests against Biden’s policies with Israel, some Democrats have said out loud what others are whispering, that maybe they should cancel the Democrat Convention in order to avoid the 1968 optics of violent protestors battling police. Recall that the worst of the J6 protest optics involved Trump supporters in pitched battles with Capitol and District Police.)

Semper Vigilans Fortis Paratus et Fidelis
Pro Deo et Libertate — 1776