The Patriot Post® · Say 'Goodbye' to the Petrodollar

A 50-year pact ended last week, not with a bang but a whimper.

In 1974, in the wake of the energy crisis, the United States and Saudi Arabia struck a deal: The Saudis would price their oil in dollars and invest their surplus oil revenues in U.S. Treasury bonds. In return, the Americans would provide protection and military support for the kingdom. So even when oil prices surged again in the late 1970s, it wasn’t all bad news for America because the Saudis were investing here. Moreover, it was a good deal for our defense industry, which had a new market for its wares.

Over the half-century of the pact’s life, those “petrodollars” were a key feature of our economy. Because everyone used our dollars to price oil, Americans enjoyed the benefits of a strong currency. Imports were cheaper, and those who traveled abroad enjoyed seeing their dollars go further. More important, they helped stabilize the world economy to our benefit. With the end of the deal, though, the Saudis can go their own way, most likely demanding payment for their oil in their currency, the riyal — which, since 1986, has been at a mostly constant rate of 3.75 to the dollar. That currency may be allowed to float as well. Nor would it be a surprise to see the Saudis begin to unload their Treasury bonds, no longer being compelled to buy them.

Now, other oil-producing nations may follow suit, particularly Russia. It has been the primary energy producer of the BRICS alliance (originally Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa), formed as a counterweight to American influence in 2009 and gaining members as other nations now see it as the stronger horse. Indeed, the BRICS nations have served as the market for Russia, countering the recent Western sanctions stemming from the invasion of Ukraine. The Saudis themselves were recently invited to join, and without the constraint of the petrodollar agreement they just might.

In a commonsense assessment, The Federalist’s Jessica Marie Baumgartner notes, “The end of the petrodollar lessens the power of U.S. currency even more and will lead to increased inflation once foreign holders of the U.S. dollar send that money back. With BRICS gaining more members and the U.S. dollar continuously losing its value and respect, American wealth is on the chopping block.”

Although neither Donald Trump nor Joe Biden was looking to renew or extend the petrodollar pact — and the Saudis were likely happy to let it expire — an America that was energy independent with low inflation and increasing government revenues thanks to a humming economy would have been better equipped to handle this change. While a weaker dollar may have the perverse effect of making Chinese imports more expensive, the end of the agreement also eliminates a captive market for our Treasury bonds and could lead to even higher interest rates — on top of Bidenflation, which is more bad news for people trying to invest in the housing market.

Another negative assessment comes from Daniel Turner, who advocates for energy jobs as the founder of a group called Powering the Future. “Among all the news stories that matter, few rank higher than this,” writes Turner. “It’s bigger than President Trump and Hunter Biden’s convictions, bigger than jobs reports and inflation numbers, and perhaps even bigger than the southern border crisis. The end of the petrodollar is the end of the United States as the world’s lone superpower.”

And Turner may be right, more likely so with our present leadership. Yet, it also presents an opportunity if the situation is played correctly. Going forward, America won’t be able to float along on the security of petrodollars to boost its economy. Instead, we’re going to have to compete with the assets we have. Writer Ward Clark checked off a few of those American assets: We’re not facing a demographic apocalypse, we still have an industrial base, and we have farmers who can still feed us many times over. Furthermore, we have plenty of our own oil that we can still sell in dollars if we choose to.

To get back in this game, though, America will have to choose wisely and abandon the folly of the last four years in favor of tightening our spending belt, returning to the wise use of our God-given fossil fuel resources, and truly rebuilding our economy back better by adding value to it instead of increasing debt to create phony prosperity.

It can be done. But in the meantime, it might not be a bad idea to turn to the One who is really in control.