The Patriot Post® · China's Nautical Strategy

Some 70.8% of the earth’s surface is covered by oceans. It’s no surprise, then, that roughly 90% of the world’s commerce goes by sea. For China, 95% of commerce goes by sea, which — also not surprising — contributes to the fact that 64% of global trade goes through the South China Sea. The Chinese long ago recognized the strategic, political, and economic importance of the oceans and have become dominant in all things nautical.

According to the Congressional Research Service (CRS), the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) has long since passed the U.S. Navy as the world’s largest navy, and the gap will only get larger. CRS says:

DOD states that China’s navy “is the largest navy in the world with a battle force of over 370 platforms, including major surface combatants, submarines, ocean-going amphibious ships, mine warfare ships, aircraft carriers, and fleet auxiliaries. Notably, this figure does not include approximately 60 HOUBEI-class patrol combatants that carry anti-ship cruise missiles (ASCM). The … overall battle force [of China’s navy] is expected to grow to 395 ships by 2025 and 435 ships by 2030.” The U.S. Navy, by comparison, included 292 battle force ships as of January 29, 2024, and the Navy’s FY2024 budget submission projects that the Navy will include 290 battle force ships by the end of FY2030.

With this huge numerical advantage, virtually all of which is in its coastal waters/South China Sea, China dominates the waters in that vital economic region. The U.S. has approximately 60 ships at any given time in the INDOPACOM area of operation, and 370 combatants to 60 is a worrisome metric.

The China Coast Guard (CCG) is large and sophisticated and, in stark difference from the U.S. Coast Guard, is under the operational control of the PLAN. In addition, Chinese Coast Guard ships are built like combat ships and are armed with weaponry. “China now has 157 large regional and oceangoing patrol vessels with full-load displacement of more than 1,000 tons — double that of Japan,” says The South China Morning Post. “The Pentagon’s 2023 report on China’s military power said the CCG operated more than fifty regional patrol combatants (over 500 tons) suitable for limited offshore operations, and an additional 300 coastal patrol craft (ranging from 100 to 499 tons). Many of the CCG’s vessels are modified decommissioned naval ships, and while the missile launchers and heavy firearms are removed at handover, artillery such as 76mm caliber guns remain.”   If that were not enough, China also has another nautical force called the Maritime Militia. Exact numbers are unknown, but multiple sources indicate that hundreds of quasi-military ships are employed to augment the PLAN and Coast Guard. These smaller ships come under the command and control of the PLAN, are armed, and have at least rudimentary military training to augment the PLAN when needed. The Maritime Militia has been extensively used in encounters with the Philippines in disputes over various features in the South China Sea.

The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a highly respected nonpartisan defense think tank, reports that as many as 300 maritime militia craft have been involved in China’s efforts to intimidate the Philippines to abandon islands in their Exclusive Economic Zone. Their crews even wear uniforms. “China completed the construction of its artificial island outposts in the Spratly Islands in 2016,” according to CSIS. “It finished most of the infrastructure on those outposts a year later. Since then, its focus in the South China Sea has shifted toward using those outposts to assert de facto control over peacetime activity across the South China Sea. A key component of this shift has been the expansion of China’s maritime militia — a force that primarily consists of vessels ostensibly engaged in the business of commercial fishing, but whose true occupation is in achieving Chinese political and military objectives.”   The capability gap in shipbuilding is even greater in the commercial sector. A leaked Navy slide paints the picture.

According to the Alliance for American Manufacturing, “China’s shipbuilding capacity is 232 times greater than the United States. Specifically, Chinese shipyards have a manufacturing capacity of roughly 23,250,000 million tons, whereas U.S. shipyards have less than 100,000 tons.” According to the Bureau of Transportation Statistics, U.S.-flagged merchant ships numbered only 185 in 2024. In contrast, according to Voice of America, China has over 5,500 merchant vessels.

The Council on Foreign Relations reports that China has invested in ports worldwide. The Chinese now have a financial interest in 92 ports on every continent except Antarctica, effective control over 13 international ports, and 10 of their overseas ports can support naval activities.

In summary, China has a huge numerical advantage over the U.S. in the Indo-Pacific in combat ships, merchant ships, Coast Guard ships, and a Maritime Militia like no other. China can completely dominate the South China Sea through which a significant fraction of the world’s commerce travels. China’s maritime dominance puts the U.S. and our allies at significant risk. If China chose to launch economic warfare against the U.S., our Asian allies, and the West, we would have seemingly insufficient ability to stop it. At a moment’s notice, the Chinese could plunge the U.S., our allies in the region like Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea, and the rest of the free world into an economic tailspin simply by cutting off commerce, and there is little the U.S. could do to stop them. The U.S. Navy used to be the world’s most powerful navy. That may no longer be the case. The combination of the PLAN, the CCG, the Maritime Militia, and a huge commercial fleet arguably means China is the world’s most dominant nautical power.

Our enemies no longer fear our Navy. The incidence of lawlessness at sea has multiplied because we are stretched so thin we can patrol only a tiny fraction of the oceans, and even where we do patrol, we can only devote a handful of ships. The South China Sea has become China’s province. Iran, through its proxies, can interrupt international commerce in the Middle East, and we cannot stop it. Russia resumed port visits to Cuba and combat patrols off the U.S.‘s east coast. The leaders of both parties have failed us by shrinking the size of our Navy. Our nation and our way of life are in peril if we do not reverse course and rebuild our Navy to be the most powerful in the world.