The Patriot Post® · Hypersonic Weapons Revisited

Hypersonic technology is critically important, so it’s time to check in to see where we now stand. According to news reports, nothing much has changed.

Newsweek in March said, “China is winning the hypersonic weapons race and is moving full speed ahead with plans to expand the reach of these hard-to-target weapons.” Jeffrey McCormick, senior analyst with the National Air and Space Intelligence Center, said in testimony to the House Armed Services Committee, “China’s missile programs are comparable to top-tier producers internationally, and China now has the world’s leading hypersonic arsenal.” He added, “Russia currently has three deployed hypersonic weapon systems, including two that have been used in conflict against Ukraine.” Furthermore, “China has an extensive and robust research-and-development infrastructure, including many wind tunnels, devoted to the development of hypersonic systems.”

What defenses do we have against such systems? The answer is essentially none. According to a Congressional Research Service report from August titled “Hypersonic Weapons: Background and Issues,” “At present, the Department of Defense (DOD) has not established any programs of record for hypersonic weapons [emphasis added].” The report says that, according to former DOD Principal Director for Hypersonics Mike White, “DOD has not yet made a decision to acquire hypersonic weapons and is instead developing prototypes to assist in the evaluation of potential weapon system concepts and mission sets.”

Do you follow that? The U.S. has yet to decide whether we need hypersonic defense. The CRS report says, “The Missile Defense Agency additionally requested $182.3 million for hypersonic defense in FY2025, down from its $190.6 million request in FY2024 and $225.5 million request in FY2023.”

In the report under Hypersonic Missile Defenses, it says, “DOD is also investing in counter-hypersonic weapons capabilities. In September 2018, MDA — which in 2017 established a Hypersonic Defense Program pursuant to Section 1687 of the FY2017 NDAA (H.Rept. 114-840) — commissioned 21 white papers to explore hypersonic missile defense options, including interceptor missiles, hypervelocity projectiles, laser guns, and electronic attack systems. In January 2020, MDA issued a draft request for prototype proposals for a Hypersonic Defense Regional Glide Phase Weapons System interceptor intended to be fielded in the mid-2030s; however, the program was later cancelled in favor of an alternative solution, the Glide Phase Intercept (GPI). According to MDA FY2024 budget documents, the agency sought to field a regional, sea-based GPI capability in FY2034 [emphases added]. MDA’s FY2025 budget documents state that GPI is to be delivered in FY2035.”

So, the plan is for the U.S. to have defenses against China and Russia’s hypersonic weapons by 2035. You can sleep well tonight.

CRS also reports: “Other analysts have argued that the strategic implications of hypersonic weapons are minimal. Pavel Podvig, a senior research fellow at the United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research, has noted that the weapons ‘don’t … change much in terms of strategic balance and military capability.’ This, some analysts argue, is because U.S. competitors such as China and Russia already possess the ability to strike the United States with ICBMs, which, when launched in salvos, could overwhelm U.S. missile defenses. Furthermore, these analysts note that in the case of hypersonic weapons, traditional principles of deterrence hold: ‘it is really a stretch to try to imagine any regime in the world that would be so suicidal that it would even think threating [sic] to use — not to mention to actually use — hypersonic weapons against the United States … would end well.”

Are we reassured? Does MAD (mutually assured destruction) apply to the use of hypersonic weapons? We are relying on a UN analyst who asserts that MAD applies to the use of hypersonics.

As far as offensive hypersonic weapons, we are making limited progress. According to National Defense magazine, “The United States has yet to deploy a single hypersonic weapon. The Army’s Long-Range Hypersonic Weapon was supposed to be the first to the field in 2023, but due to testing delays likely won’t be ready until fiscal year 2025, according to the Government Accountability Office’s 2024 'Weapon Systems Annual Assessment’ published in June.” This weapon pairs an Army launcher with a Navy missile and a new warhead to create a new offensive threat primarily envisioned to be used in USINDOPACOM.

What does this mean? Are we defenseless? Hard to say. It has been reported that existing missile systems, such as the Navy’s family of Standard Missiles, are effective against hypersonic weapons. News reports indicate the Navy’s array of SM-2, SM-3, and SM-6 missiles are quite capable of taking down multiple threats, including hypersonic ballistic missiles fired by Iran. To date, the Navy has been 100% effective at defending our ships in the Middle East and somewhat effective at helping to protect Israel and commercial shipping. In 2022, the then-head of the Missile Defense Agency (MDA) praised the SM-6 as a game-changing element of our air defenses, including against maneuvering hypervelocity missiles. U.S. Navy Vice Adm. Jon Hill, then-head of MDA, said the multi-purpose SM-6 missile is the only weapon in the country’s arsenal at present that offers any ability to knock down highly maneuverable hypersonic threats.

Let’s hope he is right.