The Patriot Post® · Congress Hangs in the Balance

While the presidential race has deservedly received the lion’s share of media coverage, the makeup and control of Congress also hangs in the balance. The biggest question is whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris will be working with a divided Congress or one under single-party control. Secondly, will it be the new president’s party that controls Congress, or will it be the opposition party?

Looking first at the House, Republicans now have a mere four-seat majority, and polling shows a tight race for control. Current polling gives Republicans 208 safe seats to the Democrats 205, with 22 seats listed as tossups. Should those seats split evenly, that would leave the Republicans in control but with an even slimmer three-seat majority. Speaker Mike Johnson has pitched a road forward, but he’s also facing the prospect of a tougher job. Obviously worse would be Speaker Hakeem Jeffries.

The Senate may be more critical, however. Republicans hold the advantage, and taking control of the chamber with a slim 51-seat majority looks to be a very likely outcome, given current polling. Of course, a 55-seat majority would be preferred and not outside the realm of possibility, especially if the election moves hard in Trump’s way.

Gaining the Senate is critically important for Republicans, especially should Harris win. She and her fellow Democrats have made their agenda clear should they win the presidency and retain control of the upper chamber. The 60-vote filibuster would be on the chopping block, as it represents the only obstacle to the Democrats’ plans to fundamentally change our government institutions.

Harris wants a nationwide abortion rights law instituted — one that would go well beyond the limits of Roe v. Wade. Also on the Democrats’ agenda is nationalizing election laws in the mold of California. This would mean outlawing voter ID, legalizing ballot harvesting, and ending virtually all election integrity measures. They’ve been prioritizing such legislation for a long time.

Furthermore, should Harris and the Democrats win control of Congress, the Supreme Court would come under serious “reform” risk. Everything would be on the table — from packing the Court to imposing new ethics rules to term limits on justices.

If Trump should win but Democrats retain control of the Senate, his ability to seat conservative justices will be effectively blocked. This is especially troubling, given that the Court’s two oldest justices — Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito — also happen to be its most consistently conservative. Arguably, Trump’s greatest first-term success was his three choices for the Supreme Court.

Senate races to watch are in Montana, where Republican Tim Sheehy has a good chance of ousting the three-term Democrat Jon Tester. In Ohio, Republican challenger Bernie Moreno is in a dead heat with Democrat incumbent Sherrod Brown. In Pennsylvania, longtime Democrat incumbent Bob Casey is in a dogfight with Republican challenger Dave McCormick. Should these three races go to the Republicans, they will almost guarantee a flipping of Senate control. Should things really go the Republicans’ way tonight, they could pick up seats in Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Nevada.

Democrats have a tall order, especially in keeping the Senate. But a Harris victory would certainly help, as they would need to retain just 50 seats. Democrats have focused on the Texas Senate race where Republican incumbent Ted Cruz is polling just four points ahead of the RCP average of Democrat challenger Colin Allred. Defeating Cruz would be a huge scalp for the Democrats in Texas, signaling a major success in their long-running efforts to turn the Lone Star State into a swing state.

As always, the election results will be a bit of a mixed bag for both parties, with the top of the ticket being the biggest judge of success or failure. Let’s just hope we know the answer tonight.