The Patriot Post® · Demographic Doomsday: A Crisis Averted?

In the 1990s, National Review published a cover story in which a senior editor at the time, Peter Brimelow, and his colleague, Edwin Rubenstein, used statistical analysis of voting behavior and America’s changing demographics to predict that Democrats would secure a permanent majority in American politics.

Shortly thereafter, John Judis and Ruy Texiera published a book in which they lauded how the increased presence of non-whites in America would give the Democrat Party an electoral advantage for election cycles to come.

Given the differential voting patterns between ethnic groups in America and the sheer volume of legal immigration to the United States starting in the 1970s, Brimelow’s saying that “demographics are destiny in American politics” seemed like a truism. After all, between 1992 and 2020, Republicans only won the popular vote in the presidential election two times, a trend largely attributable to the population growth of immigrants and their descendants.

Fortunately for America, the left-wing elite’s hold on non-white Americans seems to be weakening. The exit polls for the 2024 election show that Hispanic men voted for Donald Trump over Kamala Harris by 12 percentage points, a 35-point change since Joe Biden’s victory in 2020. Additionally, the Trump campaign was able to shrink the traditionally 40- to 50-point lead Democrats have over Republicans with Hispanics overall to a paltry six points and also won over non-whites who identified as “other” by nine points. This shift of non-whites to Trump ultimately delivered Republicans their first popular vote victory in decades.

Worth noting is that Trump was able to make these enormous gains without engaging in the same ethnic pandering that the Left does. Furthermore, Trump was able to win these non-white voters on a campaign of mass deportations and strong border security that the Republicans of yesteryear would have slandered as “morally repugnant” or an act of “electoral suicide” given the rising dominance of Hispanics in America.

Two decades ago, Republicans were lectured by Karl Rove that liberal immigration policies were the key to Pablo the Pool-boy’s vote. Rather than think that Pablo and his hard-working, law-abiding peers were Americans who cared about real issues like the economy and law and order, Rove thought that Pablo was a Mexican first and American second, arguing that to curry favor with Pablo and his pueblo, Republicans would have to give illegal immigrants citizenship and allow them free access to our buffet of government giveaways.

Now, it is also important to be honest and realistic about how this recent shift in voting behavior does not mean these non-white Trump voters love Liberty or believe in a limited federal government. After all, many white Trump voters are longtime Democrats who sat idly by while Democrat presidents and their Supreme Court appointees defiled our Constitution and introduced government program after government program.

Presidential elections are not indicative of a change in ideology. Rather, they are an avenue for voters to vent frustration about their economic condition and cultural resentments. I point this out not to say that voters are ignorant or uneducated about public policy but that these historic election results do not indicate a permanent widespread ideological shift in favor of conservative ideas.

What the results of the latest election do tell us is that there are millions of Americans — particularly non-white Americans — who are open to trying something they never previously had before. Non-whites are telling our ruling class that they are done being talked down to. They are done being treated as if they are crystal castles that could crumble with the slightest microaggression and thus need protection provided by a legion of rich White Liberal Knights. And most importantly, they are sick of being told that their concerns about the safety of their communities or their pocketbooks should be secondary to their tribal identity.

While the momentum is in the Right’s favor, the Democrats’ latest defeat is not a wholesale repudiation of the demographic doomsdayism I mentioned earlier. Conservatives will have to work tirelessly to turn this rightward shift of non-whites into a permanent constituency of proud, Liberty-loving Americans.

Democrats are finally learning the consequences of taking non-white voters for granted — it would be a shame if Republicans do the same and are caught with their pants down during the midterm elections, or worse, the next presidential election.