The Patriot Post® · Bad News and Good News for Taiwan
Taiwan is the number one manufacturer of the most advanced computer chips, with 60% of the overall market and 90% of the market of the most advanced microchips. These chips are essential for supercomputing, smartphones, military systems, space systems, cars, electric vehicles, telecom networks, financial systems, medical technology, energy grid systems, industrial automation systems, robotics, cloud infrastructure, and AI.
If China conquers Taiwan, it will either control that essential tech sector going forward, or Taiwan will destroy the technology before China can capture it. Either outcome is unacceptable, with vast damage done to the world economy.
It would subject 23+ million free people to the slavery and brutality of Communist China. Ask the Tibetans, the Uyghurs, and the citizens of Hong Kong and Macao how they like being ruled by China.
If Taiwan falls to China, it makes the threat to Japan, the Philippines, and many others in the Indo-Pacific much greater. The sovereign Japanese territory of the Ryukyu Islands stretches down hundreds of miles from Japan towards Taiwan. Yona Guni Island, with ~1700 Japanese citizens, is only 70 miles from Taiwan. Japan is rapidly militarizing the Ryukyu Islands due to fear of China’s plans.
If Taiwan fell to China, it would severely damage the U.S. as the leader of the free world and the nation most responsible for creating freedom around the world. Europe is free because of the U.S. intervening in WWII. Japan and most of Asia is free today because the U.S. intervened and defeated Japan in WWII. If China conquered Taiwan and the U.S. either stood by and let it happen or tried to protect them and failed, it would end our status as the world’s premier power.
If China conquers Taiwan, it is a huge step forward in their 100-year plan dating back to their victory in the Chinese Civil War in 1949, after which it hatched its plans for world domination by 2049.
Keys to Taiwan’s Defense
Taiwan is turning itself into an A2/AD fortress. The common definition from multiple sources describes A2/AD as “Anti-access/Area Denial, which is a military strategy aimed at preventing an opposing force from entering a specific area (anti-access) and limiting their freedom of movement within that area (area denial).” Taiwan will use advanced air defense missiles, advanced warning systems, drones, highly maneuverable corvettes, and unmanned craft, decoys, and a host of other methods to confuse and defeat any attempt to attack, invade, or blockade Taiwan.
While not ruling out a direct defense using USINDOPACOM indigenous assets which are considerable and surge assets from home, the U.S. is currently supporting Taiwan with the ability to defend itself effectively in the form of pre-positioning assets to support them, improving training, stockpiling ammunition in theater, improving ally supporting structures and positioning, enhancing communications and coordination, and strengthening the electronic playing field for all concerned.
The U.S. views the first island chain as defensive architecture for Taiwan. Japan’s Ryukyu Islands’ close location and strengthening have already been noted. With U.S. aid, the Philippines is orienting major defenses north and west toward Taiwan and positioning assets, including USMC and rotational Army units, that can be used to defend Taiwan. Even as far away as Australia and Guam, all defense efforts are in the context of the threat from China and for the aid and defense of Taiwan. The message is clear in these moves: Taiwan is not alone. The U.S. and other nations will be there to help it defend itself.
It is true that the increase in the pace, size, and complexity of Chinese exercises is deliberately intended as practice for an attack on Taiwan. However, the very fact that this has been the case in recent years is proof that China now recognizes that Taiwan is increasingly able to defend itself with support from its allies and the preparations those allies are making to support it. China now realizes with much greater clarity how difficult it will be to take Taiwan and what the stakes are in terms of the extent to which Taiwan’s friends and allies will go to help defend it. China has a much better understanding that taking Taiwan will be extremely difficult, if not impossible, with devastating loss on all sides and terrible consequences for the world economy. China will bear all the blame for this human and economic disaster.
Taiwan is a critical asset and ally to the international order and thus is a key to stability for the sea lanes, energy transport, and the U.S. treaty ally network. This network is the key deterrence factor for aggressors like China and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea. The U.S. and its allies are not going to roll over and play dead while the enemies of freedom attack the international order. Momentum is building in Taiwan’s favor on many fronts, not least the U.S.‘s reemergence as the undisputed world leader in military power and international influence. The monumental events in the Middle East with the routing of Iran and its proxies everywhere, and now with the events in Venezuela, have highlighted for the world the extent of our military’s reach and sophistication. The decimation of Iran’s nuclear bomb program and the capture and arrest of the criminal Maduro in Venezuela speak volumes to anyone around the world, including China. It is now clear to the Chinese that the U.S. has advanced methods and means to conduct surgical strikes on key targets to kneecap potential adversaries. The leaders in Beijing must be wondering what the U.S. has planned for them in the event they foolishly decide to attack Taiwan.
- Some experts, including noted China expert Gordon Chang, think that the most likely China/Taiwan scenario would not be an invasion. Chang recently argued the PRC might try to exploit the U.S.’s recent actions as propaganda cover for either a blockade or quarantine of Taiwan. Chang cited many reasons why outright invasion is unlikely including how dependent China is on trade especially the need for imported oil, the continued turmoil in their military with massive corruption scandals, the fact that polling indicates an outright invasion of Taiwan would be extremely unpopular with the Chinese public and the realization by President Xi Jinping that the U.S. and its strengthening ties to its many allies would be formidable foes. Good news for Taiwan
The U.S. approved a recent $11B in defense items, including advanced missile defense systems and long-range missiles to attack the Chinese homeland launch sites. This also includes $2.5B in defense aid to the Philippines. The stronger Taiwan’s allies are, the harder it is for China to concentrate all its attention on Taiwan.
The U.S. and Taiwan are collaborating on up to five microchip factories in Arizona. Taiwan plans to increase its defense budget to 2% of GDP, with a pledge to raise it further. Taiwan is investing more in its own sophisticated air defense systems, modeled after Israel’s Iron Dome. Taiwan continues to produce improved Chiang-class corvettes that will be key to littoral defense. Taiwan does not need to defeat China. Taiwan needs the strength to make the cost to China unacceptable in any scenario.
The U.S. has established the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) with sites in the Philippines, with USMC assets nearby for the defense of Taiwan. These sites can be used to launch NMESIS (Navy-Marine Expeditionary Ship Interdiction System) anti-ship missiles and to operate aircraft. The sites have also been used for U.S. Army HIMARS missile exercises. HIMARS (High Mobility Artillery Rocket System) is a truck-mounted precision missile launcher that gives ground forces naval-strike, deep-strike, and airfield-kill capability normally associated with airpower but much harder to detect and kill. Sites are located:
Balabac Island (Palawan) — strategic for South China Sea approaches toward Spratlys
Camp Melchor F. dela Cruz (Isabela, Luzon) — northern Luzon, facing Taiwan approaches
Lal-lo Airport (Cagayan) — airfield in northern Luzon
Naval Base Camilo Osias (Santa Ana, Cagayan) — coastal location in the far north, facing the Luzon Strait
Japan plans to increase its defense spending to 2% of GDP directly due to the increased threat to Taiwan and to the Japanese islands near Taiwan. Japan is considering the development of nuclear weapons due to the threat from China. These developments are a revolutionary evolution in Japan’s approach to its defense since the end of WWII, where it, because of the horrific impact of the war on Japan and its populace, essentially swore off war for all time in its post-war declarations.
The U.S., Australia, and the UK signed an agreement on advanced submarines for Australia. China already has an outsized impact on Australia and aggressive expansion of its military, especially the PLAN. The number one defensive weapon to help Australia defend its homeland from China’s threat is being able to obtain the most advanced attack submarine in the world, the Virginia class, and that is exactly what the AUKUS (Australia, UK, and U.S.) alliance does for Australia.
President Donald Trump recently proposed a $1.5T defense budget for FY 2027. Portions of this increase will go to helping allies around the world, including in Asia, to be better prepared to defend themselves, including Taiwan.
Allies who would likely come to the aid of the Taiwan in the U.S.’s defense of Taiwan include Japan, the Philippines, Australia, Canada, and other members of NATO who have issued statements in support of Taiwan. Many have conducted freedom of navigation transits of the Taiwan straits in recent years including the U.S., UK, France, Germany, Japan, Canada, New Zealand, and the Netherlands, strong statements of strategic risk acceptance, i.e., in effect, thumbing of the nose to China who claims sovereignty over the Straits of Taiwan.
What does the recent Department of War report issued at the end of 2025 say about China’s ability conduct an amphibious attack on Taiwan? It says, “There is no indication the PLAN is significantly expanding its number of tank landing ships and medium sized landing craft, despite almost certainly not having the conventional air and maritime lift capacity to conduct a large-scale amphibious assault on Taiwan.” This is good news, in effect affirming that China now lacks the ability for an outright invasion of Taiwan. This same report has an extensive portion on continuing problems the PRC has with serious corruption among its senior military officer ranks. The corruption is ongoing and continuous and stretches back a long time. It does not seem to be getting any better. Legions of senior officers have been fired and disappeared over the years. While not conclusive, this pattern of corruption may indicate a lesser propensity for China to attack Taiwan any time soon. If President Xi adheres to the oft hinted at 2027 timeframe for taking Taiwan, it may well mean the Chinese would not invade but use one of their other options like forms of coercion, blockade, or even limited strikes on Taiwan assets.
The U.S., UK, France, Germany, Japan, the Philippines, and Australia all publicly criticized recent exercises by China practicing for attack on Taiwan. Japan’s public statements tie its defense and security directly to the interests of Taiwan.
Conclusion
China has not publicly backed away from 2027 being a pivotal date for something to happen regarding its plans for Taiwan. However, there are signs and changes that may impact its calculus on what it does. It cannot have missed Chinese leaders’ attention that defense spending of those pertinent to the issue, Taiwan itself, Japan, the Philippines, the U.S., Australia, and others is way up.
Recent U.S. military successes in the Middle East, the takeout of Iran’s nuclear capabilities in spectacular fashion, and the recent capture and arrest of Nicolás Maduro in equally spectacular fashion must give them pause. President Trump is on record of saying that President Xi has given him personal assurances that China will not attack Taiwan while Trump is president. If true, that pushes the date out to 2029. By 2029, Taiwan and all the others in the theater will be much stronger than ever if the current trends hold.
Is it realistic to hope that at the end of the day, China will realize that conquering Taiwan is a bridge to far and will give up that ambition? To ensure that outcome, the U.S. and its allies along with Taiwan itself must continue the path we are now on of rapidly building up the defenses.