The Patriot Post® · Vietnam's Surprising Impact on China and Taiwan

A tragic part of America’s history is the ill-conceived and strategically poorly executed war with Vietnam. That war’s carnage resulted in the deaths of 58,000+ Americans, 153,000+ wounded, and half a million with PTSD. Compounding the damage to those who fought in Vietnam was political abuse heaped on innocent military members by the anti-war movement that added insult to injury. Despite the death and sacrifice of so many, the U.S. lost that war against communism to a tiny nation in part due to support from China. Present-day Vietnam and its long-term combative relationship with China, its strong ties to the U.S. economy and, yes, even our military, and its impact on the future of Taiwan are the subject of this article.

Vietnam (officially the Socialist Republic of Vietnam) is a relatively small Southeast Asian country with a population just over 100 million, a GDP of ~$525B, ranking it 32nd in the world. Its IMF purchasing power parity ranking is 25th. Its economy is export-driven, and much of its trade is with the U.S. and Asian countries. Vietnam is one of the most open, trade-oriented economies, with a trade-to-GDP ratio of 170%, making it extremely sensitive to disruptions in global trade. The World Bank says that Vietnam’s GDP grew at a healthy 8% rate in 2025. Vietnam has a vital strategic trade location bordering China to the North, Laos and Cambodia to the west, and the South China Sea (SCS) to the east.

China significantly aided the communist element of Vietnam in winning the war with the U.S. by supplying weapons and logistics support. Despite this help from China, after the war with the U.S., Vietnam aligned more closely with the Soviet Union, resisting China’s intentions for domination. Without China’s help, the Vietnamese communists would likely not have prevailed against the much more powerful U.S. Vietnam and China have a thousand-year history of border opposition and fighting, including an outright war in 1979, which Vietnam won.

Vietnam’s defense policy is decidedly unique and non-aligned. However, it is by history and past and present actions, an important anti-China country in the region. According to the U.S. International Trade Administration, Vietnam’s policy is:

• No military alliances
• No taking sides for one country or another
• No foreign military bases or use of Vietnam to adversely impact other nations.
• No use of force or threat of force in any international context.

Vietnam is very strategically located along major sea lanes to the east, south, and north. The SCS is the current main source of tension between Vietnam and China. As discussed in earlier articles, China’s fictitious Nine-Dash Line, which claims the SCS as China’s, is a major source of disagreement between China and Vietnam. Vietnam claims to own the Paracel and Spratly Islands. Vietnam occupies dozens of islands in the Spratly chain and still claims the Paracels, despite China having occupied many of those features since the 1970s. Ignoring the International Court in the Hague, China illegally claims ownership over the entire SCS, including both the Spratly and Paracel Islands. China has built extensive facilities in the Paracel Islands. Vietnam’s claims to these islands are not recent. They have well-documented historical ties to both island chains dating back to the 17th and 18th centuries, so it is a matter of national pride not to abandon those claims and yield to Chinese aggression. Taiwan decidedly does not want China to dominate either the SCS or Southeast Asia. Thus, Vietnam has greatly strengthened 27 SCS outposts, giving it more space for anti-ship missiles, rocket systems, coastal defense sites, and radar installations. Vietnam objects strenuously to China’s gray-zone tactics in the SCS, including intimidation of other nations.

Vietnam recognizes the one-China policy of the People’s Republic of China and is not an advocate for Taiwan’s independence. It keeps no formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan but does conduct robust trade with Taiwan. Vietnam was Taiwan’s eighth-largest trading partner in 2025, and economic ties are growing. In other words, Vietnam’s policy stance toward China’s claim on Taiwan is no obstacle to its trading with Taiwan. Quietly, Vietnam’s policy is both helpful to itself and undermines China’s desire to dominate in the region.

Vietnam’s military is focused on defending its own territory, preserving its independence from China, and keeping the SCS open for trade and free of Chinese control. In its 2019 defense white paper, a warning to China was given. It said that if China’s malign behavior in the region continued, Vietnam may strengthen its defense ties with other nations outside the region especially the U.S. Vietnam’s coastal defenses, submarines (Russian built Kilo’s), anti-ship missiles that potentially would threaten Chinese at sea naval assets, air defenses to defend key locations, its presence in the Spratly’s, and its geographic and intelligence advantages, make it a relevant factor to any potential future conflict over Taiwan. In considering attacking Taiwan, China must factor Vietnam into the equation due to its forces in the region, its access to the sea lanes, its long-standing resistance to bogus Chinese claims, and its economic ties to others in the region, including Taiwan. Vietnam would not get directly involved in any conflict over Taiwan, but would call for restraint by China, peace in the region, and stability and respect for international law. As an emerging power in Asia, its voice is increasingly respected.

Vietnam has close regional ties to countries and entities in the region and is active in the ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations), joining in 1995. It is an economic and strategic partner with Japan, India, South Korea, the Philippines, and Australia. In May of this year, Vietnam and India signed a deal to provide BrahMos (Indian missile system) missiles to Vietnam, including training and logistical support. Vietnam’s purchase of BrahMos complicates matters for China. The long-standing hostility between China and India and various border wars over the years testify to the strained relations between those two nations.

Let us turn to the current relationship between the U.S. and Vietnam.

We have gone from enemies who fought a brutal war decades ago to having set up a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership in 2023. This is Vietnam’s highest diplomatic level. Its framework includes cooperation in diplomacy, economics, science and technology, semiconductor supply chains, education, climate, war legacy issues (such as continuing to find and recover remains of U.S. service personnel in Vietnam), and defense cooperation. The agreement further enhances cooperation in the defense industry and trade, including U.S. support for Vietnam’s self-reliance in defense. In particular, the trade relationship between Vietnam and the U.S. is now huge and growing, with the U.S. Trade Representative reporting that, for 202 Vietnam exceeded $193B and trade to Vietnam increased to almost $16B. Vietnam is becoming a major trade alternative to China. Even U.S. companies such as Apple, Intel, Nike, Microsoft, HP, and Google/Alphabet have set up a presence in Vietnam. Demonstrating Vietnam’s importance, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth visited Vietnam in 2025, emphasized its importance to the U.S., and expressed a desire to continue improving relations. The areas for U.S. Vietnam cooperation are continuing to expand and now include maritime security, Coast Guard cooperation, port visits, defense trade, POW/MIA accounting, toxic cleanup, and unexploded ordnance cleanup. In return, Vietnam is getting increased access to the U.S. market, U.S. investment in Vietnam, supply-chain diversification, access to U.S technology, and access to some U.S. defense systems. Of note, the recently concluded U.S.-Vietnam Pacific Partnership 2026 shows an improving emphasis on maritime cooperation and disaster response and recovery. Topping off the event, the acting secretary of the Navy, Hung Cao (a Vietnamese native), paid a high-profile visit to his homeland, which was notably positive and showed the potential for maturing the relationship between the nations in the future.

The current improving relationship between the U.S. and Vietnam bodes very well for Taiwan. Vietnam would not come to Taiwan’s aid in any overt way if China were to move on or threaten Taiwan. Its support would be more subtle in the form of diplomatic statements for restraint and peace, going on high military alert to protect its own interests in the region, increasing its own patrols and defense readiness, and likely allowing limited, deniable humanitarian and logistics cooperation with the U.S. and our allies in any Taiwan contingency. Vietnam’s history of successful defense against China’s incursions, its growing strength and influence in the region, and its informal efforts to aid Taiwan or heighten the threat to it are crucial factors in the Chinese calculation of the wisdom of attacking Taiwan. Vietnam’s rise in economic and military power must give pause to China’s strategic and military thinkers.