The Patriot Post® · California's Default Line

The latest earthquake in northern California notwithstanding, stories have been circulating for weeks about the Golden State’s ostensible economic comeback. The 6.0 temblor caused some $1 billion in damage and scores of injuries (though no deaths) in an area of the state that should be looking forward to the coming Labor Day weekend as a boon for business and tourism. But, as families and businesses rebuild, the state as a whole continues to push the narrative of its recent good fortune.

California’s 2013 tax revenue helped push the state budget into balance for the first time after years of deficits so large they would have crushed many smaller states and foreign countries. Who deserves the thanks? Certainly not former Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, whose foray into politics was backed by little more than his movie star persona. Should it be the current Gov. Jerry Brown, the consummate liberal whose previous term as governor (1975-83) earned him the nickname “Governor Moonbeam”?

Maybe it makes no difference because stories of California’s recent rise from its years of economic darkness might be a bit exaggerated.

Sure, tax revenue was higher last year. And the fabled tech giants of Silicon Valley like Facebook and Google have been making big waves gobbling up smaller startups that may make themselves more competitive in the evolving digital sphere. Multibillion-dollar startups and high-price stock purchases have surely driven higher tax revenue for California in recent months. But the state government cannot base its tax strategy, let alone future tax revenue projections, on this recent activity.

“The revenues soon disappear as is happening now,” says Rob Arnott, chairman of money management firm Research Affiliates. “When Google went public in 2004, capital-gains revenues jumped 49 percent the next year. Within two years, cap-gains taxes accounted for 11 percent of the California budget. But not long after the Google tax windfall had faded, the state was broke again.”

California cannot count on or predict future tax revenue based on what Mark Zuckerberg, Sergey Brin, Larry Page and other entrepreneurs are doing. The state’s problems run much deeper.

Any news of a government surplus is outweighed by the large pension liability of $650 billion for retired state workers that assumes a 7.5% return on investment. The real return, based on long-term Treasury bond yields and economist Stephen Moore’s assessment, is closer to 3.5%. That means there is a deficit of $26 billion in the state budget, and that doesn’t make for a balanced budget.

But California is the most populous state in the Union. Great. However, according to U.S. Census reports, Americans are not moving to California from other states. According to the U.S. Census, the state’s growth is attributed largely by people outside the U.S. The latest data we have about emigration is from 2012 – 100,000 people left the state that year for other states. Funny. That’s when California was supposedly just about to hit its stride.