February 1, 2016

Obama Red Lines in Syria

Peace talks continue, but to what end?

Barack Obama and John Kerry have been pushing “peace talks” between Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad and certain rebel groups in hopes of another feather in the cap for their “smart power” diplomacy. After all, it’s been such a smashing success everywhere else. The Wall Street Journal editorial board writes:

> Regarding the Syrian peace talks that began over the weekend in Geneva, allow us to raise two questions: What peace — and what talks?

> The regime of Bashar Assad is intensifying its longstanding “starve or kneel” policy against besieged enclaves containing an estimated half a million people. The regime has also scored recent battlefield victories against moderate opposition forces, aided by a combination of Russian air power, Hezbollah ground fighters and Iran’s elite Quds Force.

> Meantime, the Institute for the Study of War reports that Islamic State (ISIS) has responded to its recent losses in Iraq by launching a fresh offensive in eastern Syria to consolidate control of the Euphrates River valley, while the al Qaeda-linked Nusra Front is gaining strength in Aleppo, once Syria’s commercial capital. Neither ISIS nor Nusra are at the talks, and they will continue to fight regardless of what comes out of Geneva.

> Also not represented are Kurdish forces, which have been the most effective ground fighters against ISIS but were excluded due to Turkish sensitivities.

One consequence of the talks is that, once again, Russia has an opening to expand its influence, defending its proxy in Assad, and putting Obama on the defensive, so to speak. The talks also weaken the only effective opposition to Assad. But hey, small price to pay for Obama getting another diplomacy “win.”

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