The Patriot Post® · The Looming Recession?

Inflation hit 8.6% in May, accelerating at a faster rate than was anticipated. As the average price of gas topped $5 per gallon nationally for the first time in U.S. history, the inflation rate hit the fastest rate of increase since December 1981. Rather than slowing down, inflation appears to picking up speed. Hello stagflation, and hello recession. At least that’s what business leaders are increasingly saying.

First, a few more numbers for context: Energy prices rose 3.9% over last month, bringing the total energy price increase to 34.6% over last year. Housing costs increased 0.6% in May, marking the fastest one-month increase since March 2004. Over the past year, average housing prices have risen 5.5%, an annual rate not seen since February 1991. And food price increases are also showing no sign of slowing — last month recored a 1.2% jump, setting the total annual price growth at 10.1%.

Meanwhile, despite a 0.3% average hourly earnings increase, real wage growth isn’t keeping up with inflation, meaning costs are outstripping the minimal wage gains. “Those escalating prices meant workers took another pay cut during the month,” CNBC reports. “Real wages when accounting for inflation fell 0.6% in April. … On a 12-month basis, real average hourly earnings were down 3%.”

In short, in Joe Biden’s economy, Americans are collectively getting poorer. And fears that an inevitable recession is coming, if not already here, have set in. “It’s hard to look at May’s inflation data and not be disappointed,” says economist John Leer. “We’re just not yet seeing any signs that we’re in the clear.”

The first quarter of 2022 saw the U.S. economy shrink by 1.5%. According to a CNBC survey of chief financial officers, 68% believe that the U.S. will be in a recession by the first half of 2023. In fact, “No CFO forecast a recession any later than the second half of next year, and no CFO thinks the economy will avoid a recession.” In other words, for America’s business leaders, it’s not a question of if, it’s a matter of when the recession will hit.

The Federal Reserve has raised the interest rate in an effort to slow inflation, but it hasn’t yet worked. JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon recently put the situation in perspective by stating, “You know, I said there’s storm clouds but I’m going to change it … it’s a hurricane.” Tesla CEO Elon Musk also ominously said that he had a “super bad feeling” about the economy. Don’t we all.

Goldman Sachs, however, believes the inevitable recession fears are overblown, suggesting that as long as the Fed continues to increase interest rates, and the demand side of the economy slows just enough, there’s still a chance it can be avoided. What would also help is if Joe Biden reverses his anti-fossil fuel policies, but that may be asking for the moon at this point. In the meantime, Americans will continue to suffer higher prices and slowing wage growth.