The Patriot Post® · What the Exit Polls Told Us
We won’t know for days, or in some cases weeks, the full results of the 2022 midterm elections. We can thank the severely divided electorate and the long voting season for the lack of immediate results. Numerous key races are too close to call, and many more will be decided by early voting tallies and absentee ballots that were cast weeks ago. Such is the trade-off for extending what used to be Election Day into Election Season. Weeks’ worth of voting means weeks’ worth of vote counting.
We can glean a little bit of information from the exit polling that has taken place. It’s not a complete picture, but it does give us a glimpse into what motivated voters across different demographics.
Overall turnout appears to be lower than the 2018 midterms, with some battleground states experiencing higher-than-average turnout, including Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, and Pennsylvania.
Turnout among voters under 30 was the second highest in a midterm in 30 years. Again, young voter turnout was highest in the above-mentioned battlegrounds, along with Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, and Ohio. Turnout in these states averaged 30%, whereas youth voter turnout is typically around 20% in midterm election cycles.
The major demographic groups appeared to break as they generally did in previous elections. Males overall trended Republican; females overall trended Democrat. White males and females trended Republican, and minority males and females trended Democrat. Younger voters trended Democrat and, with their higher-than-average turnout, were one of the reasons that the widely predicted red wave never materialized. As voters grew older, they leaned Republican.
More telling exit questions probed voters’ views of the issues, which yielded information on their motivation. Democrats overwhelmingly, and in some cases nearly exclusively, supported President Biden’s job performance, believed that inflation was not a problem for them, and remained unconcerned about crime and illegal immigration. The biggest issues for Democrat voters were access to abortion, gun control, and race.
The Democrats were able to play to their strengths among the younger, unmarried, and minority cohorts. These groups tend to vote overwhelmingly Democrat in major elections, and the data collected so far shows that 2022 is no exception. Nearly 70% of single women voted Democrat this year, most likely motivated by the party’s misleading bromides on the issue of abortion.
Exit polls reveal that Republicans turned out because of concern over rising crime, the economy, illegal immigration, and the inability of Democrats to effectively address any of these issues. No surprise there.
Nor was it a surprise that the issues motivating voters varied across party lines. In the end, Republicans and Democrats both succeeded in turning out their base, but neither party was able to drive enough turnout to significantly shift the political status quo.