The Patriot Post® · Is a Recession Inevitable?

When the ball dropped in Times Square to close out 2022, it also closed a brutal year for the domestic stock markets. While the Dow Jones Industrial average fell “only” 8.8%, other indices endured double-digit losses, with the S&P 500 tanking 19.4% for the year and the NASDAQ Composite cratering 33.1%. (Morgan Stanley warns of another big slump this year.) Moreover, holiday sales for this most recent Christmas only increased 7.6%, according to Mastercard SpendingPulse, slightly beating its expectations but barely keeping up with inflation. Gifts that were purchased, though, were more practical, with clothing sales up but electronic and jewelry sales down.

Having already been through one mild bout of recession in 2022 — despite media efforts to suddenly redefine it in an election year — consumers right now seem to be once bitten and twice shy. And despite the fact that inflation eased over the second half of 2022, analysts are still bearish on the economy for this new year. The contention now seems to be just how severely we will get hit by the next downturn.

Bill Conerly, an analyst for Forbes, warns, “A later recession is most likely, one beginning in late 2023 or early 2024,” but in his next breath states, “Predictions of recession timing are much more difficult than the eventual arrival of recession, so this forecast should be taken with a grain of salt.” We can do that.

Meanwhile, Sam Karnick of the Heartland Institute contends we’re heading for a “planned disaster.” After calling the Fed a “whipping boy” for poor governmental decisions and pointing out our labor supply has been growing at a slower pace than average since 2010, Karnick cut to the chase. “We are now moving from the inflation phase to the inevitable recession,” he said. “Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is doing precisely what he and the other Fed governors think is the Fed’s job: to fine-tune the economy by crashing it whenever there are not enough unemployed people to push labor costs down. Does that sound cynical to you?”

He continued: “The spending, taxing, borrowing, and regulatory policies of the U.S. federal government (and many state and local governments) suppress the production and trade of goods and services to levels far below what we would achieve if given the freedom to produce. Nearly all our economic problems are caused by this fiscal and regulatory squeeze.”

Yet where there is adversity there is also opportunity. At least that’s the opinion of James Freeman of The Wall Street Journal, who reminded us of a recession 40 years ago that was broken by Ronald Reagan working across the aisle with Tip O'Neill and a Democrat Congress. In that spirit, Freeman notes, “If Mr. Biden can somehow adopt a spirit of compromise with the Republican House and see his way clear to allowing more opportunity for growth in the private economy, history says he will need to ignore critiques from the eternal Beltway media.”

Then again, while the media savaged Ronald Reagan, his ability as the “Great Communicator” enabled the American people to understand his policies would eventually work. Let’s just say we’re skeptical that Joe Biden can achieve the same.

With that, we’re reminded of another great communicator, Rush Limbaugh, who famously told his listeners not to participate in the Great Recession. Granted, he had the means to not be hurt as others who lost their jobs were, but his faith in the system was contagious, too. Rush’s point remains valid, regardless of who is president and who runs Congress: Those who have initiative and aren’t afraid of rolling up their sleeves and doing hard work will do just fine.

But it wouldn’t hurt to get government out of the way.