Carbon emissions from electricity fell 8% in the United States last year, even as the economy grew, as utilities continued shifting away from using coal to cheaper natural gas and renewables, according to an analysis released Wednesday.
Experts expect even more dramatic emissions reductions across the economy in 2020 thanks to the coronavirus pandemic reducing transportation and consumption levels.
Emissions are likely to rebound when the economy recovers as people return to driving and flying, which are mostly powered by oil-based products. But the new analysis by the sustainability group Ceres suggests emissions reductions in the power sector are here to stay, chiefly because cleaner electricity sources are cheaper to use.
“This is an acceleration of the decoupling of economic growth and carbon emissions,” said Dan Bakal, Ceres’s senior director of electric power, noting that U.S. gross domestic product grew 2.3% last year even as emissions fell. “It’s fairly safe to say we are going to continue to see decarbonization of the power sector, and hopefully, at an accelerated pace.”
In 2019, renewables and other zero-carbon resources, led by nuclear power, generated more than 35.7% of U.S. electricity. Natural gas, a fossil fuel that emits about half the carbon as coal, was the most used power source at 38.4%. Coal provided 23.4% of the nation’s electricity, down from about 50% a decade ago. Renewables, counted as solar, wind, and hydropower, provided more power than coal for the first time last year, according to the Energy Information Administration. Renewables will dominate investments in new power capacity in 2020, the EIA says.
Some of the nation’s biggest power companies over the past few years have made commitments to reduce their emissions to net-zero by 2050, including Southern Company, Xcel, Duke, and Dominion.
While utilities are acting in response to economics, along with consumer and shareholder pressure, they are also being prodded by state policy. More than half of U.S. states have adopted clean electricity standards or more restrictive renewable portfolio standards, requiring utilities to obtain an increasing amount of electricity from wind, solar, and other zero-carbon energy sources.
“It takes a combination of smart policy and stakeholder pressure to move us in the right direction because the goals we have to meet are extremely challenging,” Bakal said.
Yet, even as utilities add more renewable power, the industry remains dependent on natural gas and is struggling to articulate plans to move on from it. Utilities say some natural gas is needed to balance out the grid since solar and wind are variable and dependent on the wind and sun. Bakal argued that federal policy, such as a carbon tax or national clean electricity standard, would nudge companies toward clean energy sources more quickly.
“Policies will help utilities achieve those goals, and even they admit that,” Bakal said.
Utility leaders say that to reach 100% clean electricity, advancements are needed in technologies, such as long-duration energy storage, which would enable greater use of wind and solar, carbon capture for coal and gas plants, and advanced nuclear reactors.
“There are no studies we have seen that talk about a way to fully decarbonize in an affordable and technologically reliable manner today,” said Chris Gould, the chief innovation and sustainability officer of Exelon, a Chicago-based utility.
“It is not clear to me that what works in 2030 will work farther out,” Gould told the Washington Examiner.
Exelon produces more zero-carbon power than any electric company, according to data compiled by Ceres, thanks to its massive nuclear fleet, which provides 86% of its power.
Exelon has also invested in Charge Point, an operator of the largest electric vehicle charging network, in a bid to help the transportation sector, the highest emitting, to run on more clean power produced by Exelon.
“We understand all paths to economy-wide decarbonization, not just electricity, lead through the electric sector,” Gould said.
Exelon generates none of its electricity from coal, but it still relies on natural gas for 11% of its power and is expanding its gas fleet.
Gould sees no path to get off natural gas without technological advancements, so Exelon is investing in ways to make gas cleaner, such as partnering in a first-of-its-kind carbon capture gas plant and researching blending hydrogen with gas.
“If you look at the future, it’s not quite certain,” Gould said. “It will really take an all-of-the-above approach.”
