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Auto Sales Breakdown

U.S. auto sales: 2017 likely to mark first fall since Great Recession

Nathan Bomey
USA TODAY

Solid but not spectacular U.S. auto sales in November likely sealed the industry's fate: 2017 will almost surely mark the first full-year sales decline since the Great Recession.

But sales still remain near 2016's record, and automakers are selling a bevy of profitable sport-utility vehicles, crossovers and pickups. Although passenger cars continued to suffer in November, automakers are rapidly adjusting to the new normal.

At the Los Angeles auto show earlier this week, for example, Hyundai revealed a crossover called the Kona, Subaru rolled out a SUV called the Ascent and Jeep introduced the redesign of its popular Wrangler SUV.

More:Hyundai reveals Kona crossover at Los Angeles auto show

More:Subaru finally goes big with new Ascent SUV

More:Jeep Wrangler, an icon, gets fresh new look, big changes

In November, U.S. sales increased to 1.39 million vehicles, up about 1% from a year earlier, according to Autodata. The final numbers included an estimate of sales for Nissan, which was unable to report November figures Friday due to a systems glitch.

Honda was a standout for the month, as the company's SUVs and crossovers surged, leading the way to an overall 8.3% sales boost. Ford, with a boost from sales to fleet customers, was up 7%.

General Motors and Toyota, two of the world's three largest automakers, posted sales declines of 2.9% and 3%, respectively. Fiat Chrysler was down 3.7%.

The average sticker price paid for a new vehicle hit an all-time high of $35,870 in November, according to Kelley Blue Book. That's up 2% from a year earlier.

But Kelley Blue Book analyst Alec Gutierrez said that dealer discounts are rising at a faster pace, meaning the actual cost to buyers for the average vehicle is coming down slightly.

For the first 11 months of the year, total industry sales were down 1.5%, putting a full-year increase essentially out of reach. PricewaterhouseCoopers projected full-year sales of 17.1 million vehicles, below last year's 17.6 million.

The expected 2017 dip could mark the start of a longer slide. The National Automobile Dealers Association on Friday projected 2018 sales of 16.7 million vehicles, while Autotrader.com and Kelley Blue Book projected 16.6 million.

"We definitely think sales will be down some for next year," Autotrader.com analyst Michelle Krebs said.

One reason: Many people are buying nice used cars that recently came off of leases instead of opting for expensive new models.

Barclays analyst Brian Johnson said that the industry is facing "an eroding plateau" that will settle in a "normalized" range of 15.5 million to 16 million vehicles a year.

For November, analysts at car-buying research site Edmunds.com projected a year-over-year sales increase of 3.5%. Analysts at car-buying research site Kelley Blue Book predicted a 1% decrease.

Passenger car sales remain weak.

Here's how the major automakers fared for the month:

General Motors

Edmunds forecast: 1.8%

Kelley Blue Book forecast: -1%

Actual results: -2.9%

The Detroit-based automaker, the larges U.S. seller of new vehicles, reported overall sales of 245,181 units for the month.

The company said its retail sales were flat, while fleet sales declined 13%, largely reflecting a cut in sales to rental car companies.

GM's flagship Chevrolet brand declined 1.2%, GMC fell 5.8%, Cadillac was down 12.8% and Buick slipped 3%.

Ford Motor

Edmunds forecast: 4.9%

Kelley Blue Book forecast: 1.8%

Actual results: 7%

The Blue Oval automaker outperformed expectations as sales of SUVs and sales to fleet customers jumped 13.3% and 25.9%, respectively. Overall, the company sold 210,205 vehicles in November.

The company's namesake Ford brand increased 7.6%, while the luxury Lincoln lineup fell 5.5%, according to Autodata.

The most popular vehicle in the U.S., the Ford F-series pickup truck, recorded a 0.9% sales increase to 72,769 vehicles.

Fiat Chrysler

Edmunds forecast: -2%

Kelley Blue Book forecast: -5.5%

Actual results: -3.7%

The Italian-American automaker sold 154,919 vehicles in the U.S. for the month. That included a 2% jump in retail sales and a 25% decline in less-profitable sales to rental car companies, which the company has been intentionally reducing.

The company's Jeep lineup, its most popular brand, posted a 1.9% sales decline to 66,001 vehicles. Ram was down 5%, Dodge declined 15.3%, Chrysler fell 13.7% and Fiat slipped 28.2%. The company's relatively new Alfa Romeo brand sold 1,440 vehicles, up from 23 a year ago.

Toyota

Edmunds forecast: 5.8%

Kelley Blue Book forecast: 0.2%

Actual results: -3%

The disappointing month for Toyota included a 2.4% decline in the namesake Toyota brand and a 6.7% decline for the luxury Lexus lineup.

Car sales fell 10.1%, including steep drops for the Prius hybrid and Corolla sedan. But the redesigned Camry gave the company a boost, with Camry sales up 24.1%.

Sales of crossovers, SUVs and pickups increased 2.3%.

Nissan

Edmunds forecast: 6.7%

Kelley Blue Book forecast: 1.6%

Actual results: The company said it would not report its November sales until Monday after suffering technical problems.

Honda

Edmunds forecast: 12%

Kelley Blue Book forecast: 3.3%

Actual results: 8.3%

The Japanese automaker set its own November record, aided by a 14.9% boost in sales of crossovers, pickups and SUVs.

Car sales also rose 1.4%.

Honda's CR-V crossover continues to flourish, rising 25% for the month and topping the Civic sedan as the company's best seller.

The Honda brand was up 8.3% for the month, while the luxury Acura lineup rose 9.5%.

Volkswagen Group

Edmunds forecast: 6.2% (does not include Porsche)

Kelley Blue Book forecast: 0.4% (includes Porsche)

Actual results: The company's namesake VW brand declined 1.6% to 29,207 units. But sales for the first 11 months of the year are up 8.3%. One big factor is the new Atlas SUV, which has filled a critical hole in the company's lineup.

The company's Audi brand rose 12.1% to 19,195. The Audi Q5 crossover led the way with a 30.6% surge to 5,467 units, easily making it the brand's most popular vehicle.

Subaru

Edmunds forecast: (none)

Kelley Blue Book forecast: 2.3%

Actual results: 0.8%

The Japanese brand continued its momentum with its best-ever November, selling 51,721 vehicles and posting a monthly increase for the 72nd consecutive time.

The company sold 51,721 vehicles in November.

Hyundai-Kia

Edmunds forecast: -9.2%

Kelley Blue Book forecast: -12.2%

Actual results: Hyundai down 8.5% and Kia down 15.6%.

Follow USA TODAY reporter Nathan Bomey on Twitter @NathanBomey.

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