Democrats were hoping for yet another upset deep in Republican territory Tuesday night in the special election in Arizona’s 8th Congressional District, but Republican Debbie Lesko held on for the win.
In early returns, Lesko was winning with 53 percent of the vote to Democrat Hiral Tipirneni’s 47 percent.
It was to be a tall order. President Trump carried the district by 20 points in 2016, and Mitt Romney won it by 25 four years earlier. Republicans have held this House seat since the 1980s. Democrats did not even field congressional candidates here in the last two elections.
But after Democrat Conor Lamb scored a victory in Pennsylvania’s 18th Congressional District, which also went for Trump by 20 points, Republicans aren’t breathing easy anywhere. While Sen. Doug Jones, D-Ala., faced a GOP opponent with an unusual set of baggage to pull off his improbable win, Lamb beat a fairly generic Republican.
National GOP organs have poured nearly $1 million into the race to boost Lesko, a former state senator with political roots in the district. The party is up on the air with ads and Trump has been conducting robocalls on Lesko’s behalf.
Lesko faced off against Tipirneni, a cancer research advocate and former emergency room doctor. Tipirneni hasn’t benefited from the same level of support from her party’s national organizations, in part because Democrats fear nationalizing the race would work to her detriment.
A first-time political candidate running against the political dysfunction in Washington, Tipirneni has a good story. She emigrated to the U.S. from India when she was 3. She lost her mother and nephew to cancer, sparking her work on the dreaded disease.
“The reason I’m doing this is because I am a constituent as well in this district, and I’ve spent many years frustrated, feeling that I don’t have a voice in D.C.,” Tipirneni told Fox News.
The seat became open in the first place because Rep. Trent Franks, R-Ariz., resigned after offering a female staffer money — $5 million, to be exact — to carry his child. This was part of a wave of inappropriate behavior by lawmakers and others exposed by the “#MeToo” movement.
Republicans have been underperforming in special congressional elections dating back to last year, even when they have prevailed at the ballot box. Democrats are energized by their opposition to Trump and at least a subset of affluent, college-educated voters who normally pull the lever for Republicans are staying home or even voting Democratic out of antipathy toward the president.
But Republicans have still won a number of these tough races. Karen Handel eventually beat Democrat Jon Ossoff in Georgia’s 6th Congressional District runoff despite a lackluster showing in the first round. Republican Greg Gianforte was elected to Montana’s lone House seat even after being arrested for assaulting a reporter covering his campaign.
It was the upsets by Jones and Lamb that really put fear into Republicans about districts they would normally assume are safe. Still, nearly half the early voters were registered Republicans, compared with 27 percent who are Democrats and 23 percent who are independents.
Lesko did not run as if she viewed Trump as a liability. She campaigned as a backer of the tax cuts the Republican Congress passed and Trump signed into law, as well as funding for the president’s proposed border wall.
Tipirneni ran on letting people below retirement age opt into Medicare, an incremental step toward government-run single payer. She favors border security and immigration enforcement measures that stop short of Trump’s wall.
A Democratic upset would have narrowed the party’s path to retaking the House. The relatively close result in a heavily Republican district is probably still a net positive for candidate recruitment and fundraising, but it keeps the size of the GOP majority intact.
“Congratulations to Debbie on her hard-fought victory,” said House Speaker Paul Ryan, R-Wis., in a statement. “Debbie ran a smart campaign and focused in on the issues that voters cared about, like having more take-home pay, fewer regulations, and a secure border. She is a committed conservative who will make Arizona proud, and I’m excited for her to get to Washington so she can help as we continue to advance our agenda. Her victory proves that Republicans have a positive record to run on this fall and we need to spend the next seven months aggressively selling our message to the American people.”
“I congratulate Congresswoman-Elect Debbie Lesko and look forward to welcoming her to our conference,” said NRCC Chairman Steve Stivers, R-Ohio, head of the House GOP’s campaign arm, in a statement. “Debbie is a strong conservative whose values truly reflect those of the voters in Arizona’s Eighth District. The NRCC was proud to support her and our targeted and early investments proved to be a difference maker in the race.”
