Nevada’s highly anticipated caucuses are the first hurdle 2020 Democratic presidential candidates need to overcome to prove their bona fides with a more diverse electorate than Iowa and New Hampshire.
The third state contest, the first in the West, also presents the seven contenders whose names will appear on caucus cards across Nevada — Joe Biden, Pete Buttigieg, Tulsi Gabbard, Amy Klobuchar, Bernie Sanders, Tom Steyer, and Elizabeth Warren — with the opportunity to notch up much-needed delegates, attract positive media attention, and entice donations at a critical juncture in the Democratic race for the White House before it’s derailed by Michael Bloomberg and his $400 million-plus advertising buy.
Sanders surge
If you’re a betting person, you’d put money on Sanders winning a sizable number of Nevada’s 36 pledged delegates, which are apportioned either via congressional district or statewide results from the caucuses.
Though polling in Nevada is very difficult given the state’s political and economic landscape, its more recent inclusion on the early-voting calendar, and the deliberative nature of caucuses, the Vermont senator averages 30% of the vote, about double that of closest rivals Biden, Buttigieg, and Warren.
Sanders’s support, however, contradicts with criticism leveled against him by the Culinary Union, members of which oppose his Medicare for All healthcare plan, and the Las Vegas Sun’s editorial board, which wrote his becoming the nominee “guarantees” President Trump a second term.
A victory for the socialist would help propel him into South Carolina next Saturday and Super Tuesday on March 3 after the drama surrounding the Iowa caucuses denied both him and Buttigieg the polling and fundraising bump that winners traditionally enjoy. His close finish in New Hampshire with Buttigieg, the former South Bend, Indiana, mayor, was also narrower than expected, countering the national media narrative he’s the Democratic Party’s runaway front-runner.
Second-place squabble
With Sanders’s front-runner status almost cemented, the focus of political observers has shifted to Biden, Buttigieg, and Warren, as well as rising star Klobuchar, and how they’ll fare at the almost 2,100 caucus precincts spread across 250 sites.
Biden, the former vice president, has hung his White House hopes on South Carolina but needs a strong performance in Nevada after shrugging off his poor showings in Iowa and New Hampshire to the predominately white demographic landscape of the states. Nevada could bolster his electability argument, based on his popularity among minority Democrats, given how Latinos make up an influential voting bloc.
Warren’s campaign, too, requires a boost after the Massachusetts senator recorded weaker than expected outings in Iowa and New Hampshire, though less so following the Nevada debate where the college debater effectively prosecuted the case against her opponents while touting her own platform. Yet, her bid hit a roadblock this month when it was revealed women of color on her Nevada team quit after being made to feel like they were token diversity hires, among other reasons.
On the flip side, Buttigieg and Klobuchar, a senator for Minnesota, have come under scrutiny for their struggles to appeal to nonwhite Democrats, seen as a death knell for their chances to unify a “big tent” Democratic coalition against Trump ahead of the general election. Their candidacies will be tested in Nevada.
Although Gabbard and Steyer haven’t received the press coverage of their competitors, environmental activist Steyer should be watched because of the money he’s doled out for advertising, including Spanish-speaking spots, in the state. He’s a dark horse heading into South Carolina, where he’s polling third behind Biden’s 24.5% and Sanders’s 20.8% with 15.5%.
Lessons learned from Iowa
After the shambles of Iowa, the Nevada Democratic Party has gone to great lengths to avoid the pitfalls that sunk the first-in-the-nation contest.
Results from the caucuses, which will start at 3 p.m. EST, won’t be filed by mobile application after plans to use the same program as Iowa were scrapped. Instead, precinct leaders will rely on paper, phones, and iPads to report initial and final alignments, data used to calculate the all-important county convention delegates. The state party has also lowered expectations about how quickly outcomes will be released.
Meanwhile, keep an eye on turnout figures as a metric for voter enthusiasm. Approximately 75,000 caucusgoers took part in a four-day early-voting period between Feb. 15 and Feb. 18, an uptick in participation compared to 118,000 in 2008 and 84,000 in 2016, amid a process different from Iowa’s satellite caucuses. Votes cast in the New Hampshire primary similarly broke the party’s 2008 record.
