Secretary of State Mike Pompeo will travel to Indonesia next week as U.S. and allied leaders seek to band with other democratic powers to curb China’s capacity to dominate the Indo-Pacific region.
“It’s in their best interest to ensure that their sovereignty is protected against the continued efforts to encroach upon their basic rights — their maritime rights, their sovereign rights, their ability to conduct business in the way that they want to inside of their country that the Chinese Communist Party continues to threaten,” Pompeo told reporters Wednesday.
The trip reflects how competition with China has changed perceptions of the archipelago, long-viewed as a “strategic backwater” despite Indonesia’s status as the fourth-most populous country in the world, as one analyst put it. U.S. overtures to Jakarta are hampered by the Indonesian aversion to aligning with any major power, but Washington’s efforts are being reinforced by Japan.
“Japan is opposed to any actions that escalate tensions in the South China Sea,” Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga said Wednesday during a trip to Indonesia. “Let me stress anew the importance of all the countries concerning the South China Sea issues not resorting to force or coercion but working toward peaceful resolutions of the disputes based on international law.”
That’s a rebuke of China, which has asserted sovereignty over vast swaths of the South China Sea and attempted to buttress those claims by deploying military assets to artificial islands in the busy waterways. Those claims entail trampling on the sovereignty claims of several other countries in the congested neighborhood, but Indonesia has the greatest potential capacity to resist China’s pressure — although Jakarta has hesitated to join any collective efforts to rebuff Beijing.
“We need to strengthen ties with large, like-minded democracies, such as India and Indonesia,” Defense Secretary Mark Esper said Tuesday, touting his meeting last week with Indonesian Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto.
Yet Indonesia’s reported desire to purchase F-35 stealth fighter jets from the United States, paired with its reported hesitance to allow American forces to make refueling stops, underscores the impediments fashioned out of Indonesia’s traditional of nonalignment and a lack of U.S. focus on the country.
“Both sides misunderstand the limits of what’s possible,” said Center for Strategic and International Studies analyst Gregory Poling, who added that Indonesia should be regarded as “a partner, a low-level partner, but mainly one that will look out for its own interests.”
Pentagon officials have expressed public concern that China will pursue military-basing capabilities in Indonesia, but Poling is confident that Indonesia will not make such a concession.
“Its own interests largely align with ours,” he said. “It’s OK to leave Indonesia to its own devices and support Indonesia with capacity building, training … and recognizing that a strong, independent Indonesia is good for the U.S.”
Pompeo hinted he’ll make that argument in service of multiple priorities. “There are commercial issues, security issues, and diplomatic issues where the United States has already improved the relationship between the countries, but there’s more that we can do,” he said. “I know the Indonesians share our desire to make sure there’s a free and open Indo-Pacific, and we want to make sure they know they have a capable, willing partner in the United States of America.”
