The Patriot Post® · Iran's Proxy Fizzle?

As I write this column on July 28, news just broke that an Iranian ballistic missile surprise attack on U.S. forces in the Middle East has shattered the No Ayatollah Nuclear Weapons War’s latest ceasefire.

The Pentagon reported air and missile defense forces in the war zone successfully intercepted every Iranian missile.

Why did the remnant regime break the ceasefire? Islamic revolutionary radicals seeking to undermine fragile Washington-Tehran negotiations is one obvious answer, but also an inadequate answer.

Consider other July 28 war updates. According to the AP, Saudi Arabia declared its air defense forces had successfully intercepted and destroyed several explosive drones launched by Iranian-supported militias located in Iraq. In other words, the drones attacked from across the northern Saudi-Iraqi land border, not from Iranian soil on the east side of the Persian Gulf. The same Iraq-based proxies had recently launched a drone attack on a Saudi oil refinery.

Also on July 28: Iran’s Yemen Houthi proxy force claimed its fighters attacked a Saudi oil tanker in the in Red Sea and forced it to turn and retreat. Last week, the Houthis announced they would prevent Saudi tankers from sailing in the Red Sea.

I’m guessing the Houthi attack occurred in or near the Bab al Mandab, the maritime strait connecting the Red Sea to the Indian Ocean. If so, that suggests the Saudi tanker had successfully transited the Strait of Hormuz, which connects the Persian Gulf to the Indian Ocean, and then sailed west toward the Red Sea.

Iran’s remnant regime claims to control the Strait of Hormuz, but the Pentagon and Trump administration say no, it doesn’t, the U.S. Navy and Air Force do. A Saudi tanker entering the Red Sea from the south likely came through Hormuz.

Another July 28 communique: The price of oil dropped $7 to around $79 a barrel. On July 21, the price of a barrel of Brent crude was around $90. Oil is a fluctuating indicator, but its close in toto with the other July 28 events that suggest the Pentagon has more control of the Strait of Hormuz than the fanatics currently commanding the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps forces.

A rough estimate: It appears the IRGC ballistic missile volley occurred shortly after Wall Street stock trading closed. For the record, on July 28, the Dow Jones average was up over 500 points.

Of course, in 24 hours, these economic statistics can change dramatically. Oil could soar; the Dow lose 2,000. IRGC fanatics certainly hope so.

This column’s preceding analysis makes the case that the IRGC and its Yemeni and Iraqi proxy attacks had economic aims — the remnant Iranian regime demonstrating it has the power to trigger global economic … what … economic terror? No, too grandiose. Chaos? Fear? Both words are a bit strong, given the U.S. is the world’s largest oil producer.

Global worry? Perhaps, but investors always worry.

The ayatollah regime has been playing the Middle East oil tanker disruption game for 40 years. The regime or its proxies have been attacking U.S. citizens and facilities since 1979.

Sometimes chaos and fear were the results, often not. I think terror would definitely apply if Tehran controlled the Strait of Hormuz and possessed nuclear weapons. But now, thanks to the Trump administration and the U.S. military, Tehran has neither. Give Israeli intelligence a very big kudo.

Sure, economic threat to oil supplies remains the regime’s major global threat. However, after five months of on-and-off war, that has all but destroyed Iranian military capability; that threat is diminishing.

These IRGC-directed attacks may have another motive, one that I think signals growing regime desperation.

Over the last five months, U.S. air and missile strikes have obliterated Iranian air and naval forces. Regional Arab, U.S. and Israeli air and missile defenses have blunted Iran’s missile and drone threat.

The regime knows its Houthi, Hezbollah (Lebanon) and Iraqi (old Mahdi militiamen?) proxies are its last regional military and terror threats.

On July 28, the IRGC sought to demonstrate that it can still conduct coordinated strikes by its proxies. And two proxies attacked, in rough concert with Tehran.

Result: The Iraqi, Houthi and regime attacks got headlines but had little effect.

Meanwhile, in Lebanon, Israel hammers Hezbollah as the Lebanese Army rearms and prepares to contest Hezbollah-controlled cantons.

Major warfighting question in Tehran: Does the regime have enough money to continue to pay its proxies to do more than bluster?

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