December 22, 2012

The Iceman Cometh

In the spirit of the season I will limit comments on my opponents on the other side of the climate issue, except to say they probably should have kept quiet on how warm it’s been. It seems like every time they use the U.S. as an example of global warming – particularly laughable this winter when much of the land masses of the Northern Hemisphere are well below normal – the weather turns around and silences them. Another example of that will occur over the next few weeks. The cold is not only coming, but like some other winters that started warm (meteorological winter actually starts December 5, the 3 month coldest period of the year, so we’re about 20% through) it’s coming with a fury that will be much more like the winters 2 and 3 years ago, than last year’s blowtorch. In a classic balancing act of Mother Nature, the heat of July in the central part of the U.S. may be rivaled by the cold in January that sets in. In fact, the overall pattern looks opposite of last winter.

In the spirit of the season I will limit comments on my opponents on the other side of the climate issue, except to say they probably should have kept quiet on how warm it’s been. It seems like every time they use the U.S. as an example of global warming – particularly laughable this winter when much of the land masses of the Northern Hemisphere are well below normal – the weather turns around and silences them. Another example of that will occur over the next few weeks.

The cold is not only coming, but like some other winters that started warm (meteorological winter actually starts December 5, the 3 month coldest period of the year, so we’re about 20% through) it’s coming with a fury that will be much more like the winters 2 and 3 years ago, than last year’s blowtorch. In a classic balancing act of Mother Nature, the heat of July in the central part of the U.S. may be rivaled by the cold in January that sets in. In fact, the overall pattern looks opposite of last winter.

But that’s nature. While you have been bombarded with talk of warmth, it’s been very cold overall in the Northern Hemisphere. And now it’s time for the U.S. to become one of the epicenters of cold. It’s similar to reversals we’ve seen before. If you recall the winter of 1993-1994, most of us were wondering if there would be winter in mid-December, but by mid-January much of the nation was encased in snow and ice.

So as we slide into and through the Holiday Season, I want you to know that, yes, we are going to have a winter this year, and indeed the Iceman cometh. And somehow the AGW crowd will try to paint the cold that comes into the nation, and right in time for the Holiday Season, as something that is a sign of global warming.

You know, they take a lot of fun out of the weather. It’s like the Grinch that stole … climate.

Happy Holidays, everyone.

Joe Bastardi is chief forecaster at WeatherBELL Analytics, a meteorological consulting firm.

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