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December 11, 2013

New Cold Record Probably Not What It Seems

Satellites have detected a temperature of -135.8 degrees Fahrenheit in Antarctica, which is the coldest ever recorded. What I’m about to say isn’t going to be popular with people on my side of the climate issue. We shouldn’t be depicting the new record as anything but what it is: evidence that we’re able to detect data in a way we couldn’t before. By trying to construe this as something beyond that – implying that it means it’s the coldest *ever* – is wrong. It’s the coldest ever *recorded*. We could not see such things in years past.

Satellites have detected a temperature of -135.8 degrees Fahrenheit in Antarctica, which is the coldest ever recorded.

What I’m about to say is not going to be popular with people on my side of the climate issue. We should not be depicting the new record as anything but what it is: evidence that we’re able to detect data in a way we could not before. By trying to construe this as something beyond that – in other words, implying it’s the coldest temperature ever – is wrong. It’s the coldest temperature ever recorded. We could not see such things in years past.

By elevating this beyond a method of better detection, it would make us no better than the agenda-driven alarmists we’re trying to show are plainly wrong. It’s the equivalent of trying to blow Typhoon Hainan out of proportion, or, with the help of satellites, spewing propaganda about a particular year being the hottest ever when we didn’t have solid satellite data that could detect warmer periods. The U.S. temperature records speak loudly to this: The hottest decade by far was the 1930s, but we had no satellites to measure the extent of the heat as we do today.

My plea is for skeptics not to become like those driven by agendas. The fact is, we’ve only been truly evaluating temperatures by satellite since 1978. And the fact that the station where the cold record was previously measured, Vostok, hasn’t broken its record, indicates that, long-term, the area hasn’t gotten colder. There’s no way to reliably say that, in the pre-satellite era, a colder temperature would have been seen if we had satellites.

In my opinion, implying anything more is propaganda and not worthy of what we’re trying to do – get at the truth of the climate issue. It’s the lowest temperature ever measured by satellite, and that’s where we should leave it.

That’s the bad news – that I may now become a pariah to people who see this issue the way I do.

Now the good news: There is evidence from Antarctica that supports our stance: The expanding sea ice. The graphic below reveals that, during the post-satellite era, Southern Hemispheric ice has undoubtedly increased, which runs counter to the idea of man-made global warming.


The amount of above normal ice extent in the Southern Hemisphere is well above the amount of below normal at its northern counterpart.

This reveals, via satellite measurement, an above normal global sea ice area.

Quite the comeback!

All this is in support of natural cyclical occurrences: the back and forth episodes in temperatures in both the oceans and air, all of which can now be measured by satellites, so we can actually record what’s been theorized about natural climate cycles – which has been seemingly shoved under the rug by folks who’d be screaming loudly if we were talking about the warmest temperature ever recorded by satellite.

How do I know they would do that? Look at the pattern: There’s been over 2,500 cold and snow records since November 20. Do you see the media saying this could be global cooling? What do you think they’d be doing if we were experiencing record warmth? You need not look beyond March 2012 or the three consecutive hot summers between 2010-2012, which were very similar to 1952-1954.

There are many, many side issues in this fight. I’m not interested in anything but the search for the truth. That means calling it as I see it. The discovery of the coldest temperature ever should be chalked up as a tribute to better detection methods, and nothing beyond There’s no reason to use distortion when we have the truth on our side.

Joe Bastardi is chief forecaster at WeatherBELL Analytics, a meteorological consulting firm.

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