The Patriot Post® · Wake Up Cold
We came out the gate with a cold winter outlook. In our forecast, the three months scored are December, January and February. We are about 50% through with winter now. The forecast that went out to clients in November followed the cold ideas we have had since last spring, and in fact the seeds for this winter were rooted in ideas about what happens when La Ninas weaken.
Since this was issued well beforehand to folks that pay us if they find our ideas have merit and then publicly released well before the fact, I want to show people what we were saying. This season’s cold is no surprise so far.
The Weatherbell.com team focused on three aspects: The very warm water in the northern Pacific, which promotes what we call ridging near the West Coast of the US, and in turn allows the jet stream to buckle into the US, and the relationship in the tropical Pacific when water is warmer in the central and western sections than the east. We poured over and analyzed countless maps. Additionally, there is an interesting “bounceback theory”: After La Ninas quit, the US turns cold in winter. The classic examples are the warm La Nina winters of the mid-1970s, which were followed by the cold winters of the late 1970s.
Watch. Here are the winters of 1973-‘74, '74-'75, and '75-'76:
And the following three winters:
Watch the sea surface temperature (SST). Notice the cold Pacific near the West Coast of the US and Canada and the tropical Pacific during the warm US winters.
Now watch what happens when it warms in the areas that were cold. If you have the opposite temperature pattern in this huge source of energy for the planetary climate, and it turns opposite, the response to the US is opposite.
Why would this happen? Think about it. In the natural ebb and flow, if it gets warm in one place, it’s cold in another. There is no mystery. The fact we had 30 years of a cold Pacific, and the Atlantic was cold, makes this example even more dramatic. It’s something we think will come back in the coming 20-30 years as the Pacific warms and the Atlantic is warm now. The Pacific recently shifted back into its cold cycle. What do you think will happen generally to the global temperatures? They will return to where they were. In fact a close up look at the past six years since the Pacific moved to its cold overall cycle has seen the temperature drifting down.
There are other examples, but I wanted to show you this one. That some can claim it’s because of global warming shows how bankrupt their ideas are, since there are many examples of cold winters and their causes that are similar to this. The absurdity of the statement is beyond comprehension. Think about it: It’s cold now, so you speculate that all the other cold outbreaks were because of a different reason, and this one is because of man-made global warming. How do you know that? What about all the other ones? How can you tell? And if it’s going to get colder further south because of warming further north, don’t these people understand the implications of that as far as the planetary energy budget? (Talking weather, not fuel here). It’s literally cutting the feet out for warming, destroying their own theory! That shows you how little thought is put into such statements. It’s no secret that since the tropical Pacific went into its cooling phase, the earth’s temperatures have drifted down, as seen here:
This is not a right-wing think tank. Its NCEP – the National Center for Environmental Prediction.
In November we warned people that a pattern similar to the great Arctic outbreak in December of 1983 was setting up for early December. Sure enough, it came the second week of December. It was so cold it broke all natural gas weekly “draw” records even though it was not the heart of winter. How did we know? (More importantly, we let our clients and subscribers know it and also made sure we used public outlets as much as we could.) Because we saw patterns that we have researched and seen before. In December we started talking about a pattern that set up in January of 1994 that set record low temperatures in the Midwest. Sure enough, two weeks later, like clockwork, down it came. I even posted this on our site nine days before showing subscribers how this was going to occur! We did our research and saw it coming. It had nothing to do with CO2.
This is not an all glory and honor to Joe post. In fact I am still smarting over the gross over-forecast of the hurricane season, but I used that to set up winter too, as examining closely what happened brought to light the La Nina hurricane season of 1917 which had only four storms, followed by a severe winter. But who would actually use a beating by the weather to go and find past situations that could help them in the future? Certainly not someone who claims everything that happens, even when it’s opposite of what was being said, means he is right.
I can go on and on. Those of you that hear me on the radio know that. But the title of this is “Wake Up Cold.” America needs to wake up. The blackouts in the severe cold we just had should not be happening. It’s a sign that our infrastructure will not be able to satisfy the needs of people when repeat severe cold shots in the winters that are coming in the next 20 to 30 years because of the natural cyclical swings of the weather return. It’s a sign that suffering and misery, which this nation has always used as something to drive it to improve and help the weakest among us, is of no consequence to people that have an agenda that trumps any sense of reality. And their words prove it. The fact anyone can use the opposite of what they were saying to look for several years ago as evidence they are right shows we are dealing with people who will stop at nothing to have their way. And weather and climate are mere tools to them to try to enforce their will. As I said a few years ago, a nation built on the freedoms to confront reality will not survive if shackled by policies that chase utopian ghosts.
The wake up cold is a wake up call.
Joe Bastardi is chief forecaster at WeatherBELL Analytics, a meteorological consulting firm.