The Patriot Post® · A Look at the Upcoming Hurricane Season

In 2006 I made a comment that the East Coast was looking down the barrel of a gun over the next 10 years (unfortunately and unknown to me, someone publicized it as it just being in 2006). I made the comment because I felt we were going into a period similar to the 1950s. I stated that at least two major hurricanes would hit from the Carolinas and points north over the next ten years. It was a simple forecast. We had eight major hurricane in seven years in a similar cold PDO/warm AMO cycle and I knew it was coming back on! I knew where the climate cycle was going, so if I take 25% of what happened in a similar cycle, then I think I have a good chance of being right. Not brain surgery. Not hyping something to get attention. Just simple deductive process.

Now it would be convenient to say, “See, we have had Irene and Sandy,” but that would be deceiving. Neither storm was major on the Saffir Simpson scale. They were not Hazel, Carol, Edna, Connie, Helene, Gracie, Donna or Ione. On my much more descriptive power and impact scale, Sandy was borderline major. But with two years left, that is arguably one.

Yet the hysteria whipped up after 2005 based on false premises did not match the actual reason for concern, which I believe most of the AGW-driven know is the truth – that the Eastern Seaboard is a target in this kind of global pattern.

But the long list of fizzlers would make a great book, even though no one would buy it. The greatest non-hits of the century:

• Ernesto, 2006. The track was too close to land.

• The 2007 season, in spite of the La Nina.

• Hanna, 2008. It got tangled up with Hispaniola, and wound up a tropical storm in spite of a classic track up the East Coast.

• El Nino in 2009, which cut down the totals.

• The gentle giant season of 2010. Lots of storms, but no big hitters on the U.S.

• Irene, 2011, which 350.org spokesman said was evidence of global warming. It weakened as it ran up the East Coast – very close to the mean of the eight major storms that devastated the East Coast from 1954-1960.

• Sandy, 2012 – a storm long overdue so to speak, based on short and long term trends, but arguably the only storm one could say actually fulfilled concerns (all of which were natural).

• 2013: The modern day 1917 non-season. A great ocean temperature set up and yet nothing.

If this were football, it would make one of those lists of draft choices that washed out!

So it leaves me with this: Two years to have two majors storms. I think my power and impact scale describes it better, but the scale was not out at that time, so really, we have to score it by the way the game started; I am not going to change the rules. So far, I am 0 for the forecast.

Now this is a nasty looking year as far as impact, in that the East Coast is most frequented in relatively low numbered years with a lower ACE index (accumulated cyclonic energy, a much more descriptive measure of the years activity than the number) when activity is lower south of 22.5 north. But consider the bind I am in, and it’s not just that my fragile ego might get hurt if we don’t get two majors over the next two years. Suppose we have 1954 plus 1955 divided by two (God forbid if we got those two years back-to-back). Once again, I will have made a forecast, had it turn out right and have someone who has no idea of what they are talking about blaming it on something that has nothing to do with it (AGW/climate change/climate disruption..etc). Think about it. I am hearing tales of people trashing a video I made back in 2011 about the winters starting last year being cold through next year. Now the first half of last winter was not right, but it came on, and if we take the 180 days of “winter” out of the two years, about 75% of that forecast was right. The panic with some of my competition is starting now because they see the threat of the Modiki El Nino and a nasty winter next year, which would mean that the ideas were darn good – just like the ideas about the global downturn in temperatures based on the PDO were.

But here is the dirty little secret: None of this is based on any great revelation. All of it is based on what anyone that loves the weather and looks at the past would come up with. There is nothing “special” about any of these ideas I had, because a lot of other people knew it also. They know why, which means this is not some exercise in Hooray for Joe, It’s implying that there are simple natural reasons for what you see – from the cold over the U.S. (by the way, major cold for spring coming next week into the heartland – again!), to the warmth in other places; heavy rains in one spot, to dry in another. That one has to defend the obvious against people that do not share yours or my love of the weather speaks volumes about what has happened to this field.

It’s ironic. For years, given what I was taught in school when we moved to New Jersey, I knew it was just a matter of time before the shore would suffer a devastating storm. When my wife’s family inherited property in Tuckerton, I advised strongly they sell it as soon as possible (this was in 1994). Each year until Sandy, they gave me a hard time about selling it. But I knew what has to happen based on what happened before. It’s strange that in looking at this situation with hurricanes, I am amazed at what has not happened, not what has.

The hurricane forecast this year for low ACE, higher impact on the East Coast is based on ideas I always look to – weighting the factors I see and trying to come up with the best idea. It’s not to get attention or hype. Below is the map we have issued, indicating there is liable to be as much or more activity very close to the U.S. than the deep tropics. The forecast is meant to convey the idea, like 2012, that storms would be at their strongest close to our coast, even though there may be fewer overall. It’s the kind of year where storms develop within a couple of days of a landfall threat – certainly a major challenge, even though overall activity may be down.

There is an El Nino coming on and the tropical Atlantic has cooled. Besides, Chris Farley put it best: “I am El Nino; all other Tropical Storms Bow Before El Nino.”

Here is 23 seconds of weather hilarity.

I am someone trying to tell you the why before the what, and I am hoping that we don’t buy into the agenda-driven ideas that are bound to get press. By the way, while I am at it, the overall set up is likely to produce another cold, snowy winter next year for the U.S. from the Plains east. That is another story for another time, but if right, it won’t be because of man-made global warming, but nature doing what nature does.

Joe Bastardi is chief forecaster at WeatherBELL Analytics, a meteorological consulting firm.