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Joe Bastardi / May 12, 2014

Misdirection Increasing in Size, Intensity & Coverage

Once upon a time, oh, say 20 years ago, the talk was that the Pacific would be in a constant state of El Nino. Though this was an admission that the antics of the tropical Pacific control a large part of the global temperature, the idea of the El Nino and a forever warming planet was a global warming proponent’s dream come true. Because they ignored climate cycles and did not understand what Weatherbell.com meteorologist Joe D’Aleo, who also runs the climate blog “ICECAP,” showed plainly – that in the colder cycles of the Pacific, the La Ninas outdo El Ninos and vice versa – they assumed this would continue forever. As the earth adjusted to the warmth supplied by this natural cycle, the warmth that was occurring, combined with the change of the Atlantic cycle to warmer, lead to a marked decrease in Arctic sea ice. It reached a crescendo in 2007, the year of the death spiral along with forecasts of no summer ice in 2014. Through it all, our side of the AGW argument said this is a natural phenomena, and once the AMO flipped, the summer sea ice, which is the most obvious talking point for those advocating the Arctic death spiral, would come back. As always, the Southern Hemisphere ice, because it was above normal, was ignored.

Once upon a time, oh, say 20 years ago, the talk was that the Pacific would be in a constant state of El Nino. Though this was an admission that the antics of the tropical Pacific control a large part of the global temperature, the idea of the El Nino and a forever warming planet was a global warming proponent’s dream come true. Because they ignored climate cycles and did not understand what Weatherbell.com meteorologist Joe D'Aleo, who also runs the climate blog “ICECAP,” showed plainly – that in the colder cycles of the Pacific, the La Ninas outdo El Ninos and vice versa – they assumed this would continue forever.

As the earth adjusted to the warmth supplied by this natural cycle, the warmth that was occurring, combined with the change of the Atlantic cycle to warmer, lead to a marked decrease in Arctic sea ice. It reached a crescendo in 2007, the year of the death spiral along with forecasts of no summer ice in 2014. Through it all, our side of the AGW argument said this is a natural phenomena, and once the AMO flipped, the summer sea ice, which is the most obvious talking point for those advocating the Arctic death spiral, would come back. As always, the Southern Hemisphere ice, because it was above normal, was ignored.

So here we are, with the summer of 2014 approaching. Much is being made of the coming El Nino, including for the fifth time since 1997, the dream of many of a “Super Nino” to get the badly busting global temp forecast back on track. We believe strongly this a classic Multivariate ENSO (MEI) bounce back event that spikes quickly then retreats, as we are back in the period that favors this. We can plainly see this cycle by looking at the MEI chart below.

The theory is not rocket science. It simply says the strongest events are after prolonged warm run ups, which happen when the Pacific in the overall sense is cool. You can plainly see the cyclical nature of the overall MEI and the spikes that occur, both when it’s been warm and cold. As I have said a thousand times, the explanation for the behavior of the oceans lies with Dr. William Gray’s ideas.

But here we are with the talk of a Super Nino, yet the far bigger event climate-wise is the increasingly positive summer sea ice anomaly being forecast that’s getting more impressive by the week. When combined with the major positive anomaly in the Southern Hemisphere, this offers a chance, in the summer of Al Gore’s no Arctic ice cap, for a record high global ice anomaly.

Heck of a way to run a global warm up, eh? There’s a chance of a record high global ice anomaly because of an above average summer sea ice anomaly in the north and what appears to be a a Southern Hemispheric sea ice that is heading for a record high itself. As of this writing, the Southern Hemisphere looks like this:

The north, as you can see, is below average, and you see the two summer sea ice minimums that lead to the hysteria. But while they were happening there was robust sea ice in the south (and I am all for thinking globally).

Average all this out, and here’s what you get.

Again, this is not rocket science. Given where we are globally now with the Arctic still below average, a forecast for the winter around Antarctica as depicted on the graph below would mean it’s likely each anomaly in their winter would remain well above average.

Should the northern ice cap expand to above average, the global average would have to go up, perhaps breaking the record. And you have to love all this, as it would occur in the summer touted by Al Gore to perhaps see the Arctic ice cap disappear. Ouch, that is going to leave a mark. If only someone would actually watch it!

The reason for the increase in the Arctic ice is because the north Atlantic, at least for the time being, has cooled. Most of the reason for the decrease in ice is not because of the warmth of the winters but because the warm cycle in the north Atlantic attacks the ice cap at the warm time of the year – both with warmer air temperatures and the warmer current below! But what happens when that changes for good? There were times in the 1950s when Arctic sea ice was very low, and though I have no satellite measurements, we do have panic reports like this from 1957.

20 years ago the idea of a constant El Nino warming the planet was a big deal, which is why we see the current fervor about the threat of a Super Nino. But the other, greater story is this canary in the coal mine; that the AMO will flip to cold for good by 2020, as Dr. Gray has opined, because of the cyclical nature of the oceans. This means that the darling of the warming crowd a few years ago – sea ice – will be the lipstick on a pig it always has been.

Think about it.

Super Ninos galore – NOT.

Ice caps decreasing. How did that work out given the Southern Hemisphere?

And now this?

Yet what are we hearing about? A likely overhyped event to get attention and whip up fervor, while the event that actually means something is ignored.

Now let me ask you this question. If we have a world with less than average global sea ice meaning all this warmth, what should be the natural progression of thought to the same person that pushed this missive as to what two above normal caps mean?

A question they probably do not want to answer.

Joe Bastardi is chief forecaster at WeatherBELL Analytics, a meteorological consulting firm.

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