June 28, 2015

Papal Economics and Papal Climatology

Pope Francis weighed in on global warming the other day after convening a conference of climate scientists from around the world. His recent encyclical on the subject, “Laudato Si,” was awful in describing what we know about climate science, dreadful in discussing possible solutions and completely wrong in understanding the role that economics must play. Let’s begin by distinguishing between “is” and “ought.” Scientists try to understand what is. And there is broad agreement about what we know and don’t know. (I’ll briefly summarize that below.) But there is not broad agreement about what we should do about it or whether we should do anything at all. And even if there were, there is no reason why the rest of us should pay any particular attention to it.

Pope Francis weighed in on global warming the other day after convening a conference of climate scientists from around the world. His recent encyclical on the subject, “Laudato Si,” was awful in describing what we know about climate science, dreadful in discussing possible solutions and completely wrong in understanding the role that economics must play.

Let’s begin by distinguishing between “is” and “ought.” Scientists try to understand what is. And there is broad agreement about what we know and don’t know. (I’ll briefly summarize that below.) But there is not broad agreement about what we should do about it or whether we should do anything at all. And even if there were, there is no reason why the rest of us should pay any particular attention to it.

The reason? What we should do belongs in the realm of the ought. That requires value judgments. And climate scientists are no better than anyone else in making those judgments. Deciding what ought to be done also requires thinking through the economics implications of various alternatives. And most climate scientists typically know nothing whatever about serious economics.

As for what we know, Pope Francis said “If current trends continue, the century will witness unprecedented climate change and destruction of the ecosystem with tragic consequences.”

Where does that fact come from? No less a figure that President Obama’s chief climate scientist begs to disagree. Writing in the Wall Street Journal, Steven Koonin, undersecretary for science in the first Obama administration, says:

The idea that “Climate science is settled” runs through today’s popular and policy discussions. Unfortunately, that claim is misguided. It has not only distorted our public and policy debates on issues related to energy, greenhouse-gas emissions and the environment. But it also has inhibited the scientific and policy discussions that we need to have about our climate future.

Here are some things we do know:

  • The surface of the earth has been warming on and off since the last ice age ended, about 10,000 years ago.

  • During the 20th century, the global surface temperature increased by about 3/4th of a degree centigrade.

  • However, there was no close association between the release of carbon dioxide (CO2) and warming.

  • There has been no global warming for the past 16, 19 or 26 years — depending on whether you choose the surface temperature record or one of two satellite records of the lower atmosphere. (See Matt Ridley in the Wall Street Journal.)

  • The climate record of the last one to three decades is completely inconsistent with all known climate models (In other words, we don’t understand what is going on.)

  • Climate scientists (using admittedly faulty models) are generally predicting an increase in global temperatures of 2.5 to 9 degrees Fahrenheit over the next 100 years. However, even the alarmists admit that if we are at the lower bound, there is not much to worry about.

  • In fact, moderate warming may actually be a good thing — the benefits outweigh the costs.

So what, if anything, should be done? That is where economics comes into play. University of Chicago economist Kevin Murphy has shown that a strong economic case can be made for “watchful waiting,” based on straightforward cost-benefit analysis. (See David Henderson’s explanation.)

Yet the economic way of thinking is explicitly rejected by the pope. The environment cannot be “safeguarded or promoted by market forces,” he says. That means no carbon tax and no market for carbon emissions — the two techniques favored by almost all economists, given the need to do something.

For most of its history the Catholic Church was at war with science. Thankfully, a cease fire has been declared over the past several hundred years when it comes to the physical and biological sciences. Today, the Church does not dispute the Copernican Revolution; it accepts the big bang theory; and it does not deny biological evolution.

There is one exception to the truce between the theologians and the scientists, however: the field of economics.

Yet here are some undisputed facts. For the 100,000-year history of the human race (including most of the 2,000 year history of the Catholic Church) virtually every human on this planet lived on about $1 a day — rarely more than $3 a day. This was no one’s fault. It was the natural condition of humankind. And then, about 200 years ago, a remarkable thing happened. It’s called capitalism. Wherever free markets and the institutions that sustain them have developed, the lives of people have become immeasurably better.

Those are facts we need to keep in mind in finding a solution to the problem of climate change.

Who We Are

The Patriot Post is a highly acclaimed weekday digest of news analysis, policy and opinion written from the heartland — as opposed to the MSM’s ubiquitous Beltway echo chambers — for grassroots leaders nationwide. More

What We Offer

On the Web

We provide solid conservative perspective on the most important issues, including analysis, opinion columns, headline summaries, memes, cartoons and much more.

Via Email

Choose our full-length Digest or our quick-reading Snapshot for a summary of important news. We also offer Cartoons & Memes on Monday and Alexander’s column on Wednesday.

Our Mission

The Patriot Post is steadfast in our mission to extend the endowment of Liberty to the next generation by advocating for individual rights and responsibilities, supporting the restoration of constitutional limits on government and the judiciary, and promoting free enterprise, national defense and traditional American values. We are a rock-solid conservative touchstone for the expanding ranks of grassroots Americans Patriots from all walks of life. Our mission and operation budgets are not financed by any political or special interest groups, and to protect our editorial integrity, we accept no advertising. We are sustained solely by you. Please support The Patriot Fund today!


The Patriot Post and Patriot Foundation Trust, in keeping with our Military Mission of Service to our uniformed service members and veterans, are proud to support and promote the National Medal of Honor Heritage Center, the Congressional Medal of Honor Society, both the Honoring the Sacrifice and Warrior Freedom Service Dogs aiding wounded veterans, the National Veterans Entrepreneurship Program, the Folds of Honor outreach, and Officer Christian Fellowship, the Air University Foundation, and Naval War College Foundation, and the Naval Aviation Museum Foundation. "Greater love has no one than this, to lay down one's life for his friends." (John 15:13)

★ PUBLIUS ★

“Our cause is noble; it is the cause of mankind!” —George Washington

Please join us in prayer for our nation — that righteous leaders would rise and prevail and we would be united as Americans. Pray also for the protection of our Military Patriots, Veterans, First Responders, and their families. Please lift up your Patriot team and our mission to support and defend our Republic's Founding Principle of Liberty, that the fires of freedom would be ignited in the hearts and minds of our countrymen.

The Patriot Post is protected speech, as enumerated in the First Amendment and enforced by the Second Amendment of the Constitution of the United States of America, in accordance with the endowed and unalienable Rights of All Mankind.

Copyright © 2024 The Patriot Post. All Rights Reserved.

The Patriot Post does not support Internet Explorer. We recommend installing the latest version of Microsoft Edge, Mozilla Firefox, or Google Chrome.