Nature Wins Again
While Matthew is still going to be a damaging storm all the way to the Carolinas, it was not the devastating storm that was portrayed to be by myself and others for the Space Coast of Florida. There are three points to make here:
1) The idea that the government is purposely overhyping data in regards to hurricanes is absurd. The national hurricane center is absolutely above board on this issue. I happen to know some people there and they are objective scientists. IT DOES THEM NO GOOD TO OVER FORECAST OR UNDER FORECAST A STORM. I am sensitive to that because in what I do the same standard applies. So thinking they were purposely overplaying what this storm was doing is nonsense.
2) It is also nonsense to try to claim any tropical cyclone is because of some man-caused issue. I love the way Mother Nature works. When Irene was a strong hurricane approaching the coast, you heard the same thing, and it fell apart. Well since 1851 no major hurricane has struck within 75 miles of the Kennedy Space center. There are physical reasons for that involving the weather patterns that spawn these monsters, the latitude and shape of the coast. In fact its very hard to get a major hurricane to make landfall between Tampa and Cedar Key in the northeast gulf. But the point is that proclaiming this or Hermine are examples of climate change is absurd. People who do that are either painfully ignorant of the facts on hurricane history or they are willfully trying to deceive people who don’t know their facts.
3) Here is the fact, In spite of the best modeling and all man’s efforts, nature wins out in the end. We don’t own the weather or the climate and even though when its all said and done, when we get through with the rain, wind and storm surge further north, Matthew will be the most damaging hurricane since Sandy to hit the U.S., it was nothing that is not well within the realm of expected normals for hurricanes in the Atlantic. We all grieve for what happened in Haiti, but this was one major hurricane in one season. Hazel in 1954 killed 1,000 people and Haiti was hit BY 3 MAJORS IN 4 YEARS 1963-1966 (Flora, Cleo, Inez). It’s hurricane season, and this is what they do. Moreover, well before the fact I posted here on what this season was likely to bring. Coming out after and accusing the government of conspiracies or that it’s a climate change example is nonsense, and nothing more.
Joe Bastardi is chief forecaster at WeatherBELL Analytics, a meteorological consulting firm.
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