The Patriot Post® · Trump, Kelly, Congress and Negotiations

General John Kelly has been chief of staff for only a couple of days, and already the conventional media wisdom is that he will fail. He will be unable to corral the strong West Wing staff personalities and, more importantly, will never be able to manage the Boss. I’m not so sure.   The word is that General Kelly will have control over the personnel and all will “report” to him, but we don’t have a clear definition of what that means. If everyone is expecting a gatekeeper between Trump and everyone who wants to communicate with him, forget it; that’s not Trump’s style and it’s not going to happen, nor is it necessary. What’s important is that no one goes around Kelly. As long as he is aware of what’s going on in one-on-one meetings with the president and involved in the aftermath so that the staff stays on message and inappropriate leaks stop, things will be fine.

Far more critical is the relationship with the president. And on that score the prospects are very encouraging. Exhibit A was the firing of the communications director. Everyone is pointing to the colorful New Yorker interview language as the culprit, but that’s a cover. Anyone who has spent time on trading floors at investment banks or in locker rooms in Congress or happens to be a retired marine has heard a lot worse. The problem was that the first order of business was a self-aggrandizing interview with a magazine in which the off-the-record protocol wasn’t nailed down, not a career-enhancing move for someone whose job title is “communications director.” But even that pales in comparison to what looked like a power play showdown in which unfettered access to the president was at issue. The general stood firm, and Trump backed him up; game/set/match, and a strong signal to the peanut gallery.   So let’s hope that the general will also turn some of that magic toward the Boss. In Trump we have a superb communicator/negotiator/deal-maker who had a simple campaign message and agenda that resonated with folks across the spectrum, from the populist working class crowd all the way through to all but the most extreme conservatives. I remember thinking, gee, if he somehow manages to win, and can get half of this done, we’ll be ecstatic. Plus he was light years better than the alternative.   But we also had the guy who seemed to need to respond to every personal affront, regardless of the source or how slight. That took him off message and had the potential to drown out all the good stuff. This might have peaked when the president decided to take a break from promoting good economic news to pick a fight with a couple of cable news hosts whose ratings wouldn’t fill the box seat section at Yankee Stadium, but it is always lurking as a distraction. Trump is uniquely capable of defining the template for the modern presidency. The blend of communication skills, his ability to relate to the average American, and his familiarity with social media makes him potentially the most powerful communicator in chief since Ronald Reagan. These just need to be channeled to support his agenda, not settle personal scores.   But there’s also an issue with marrying the communication tools at Trump’s disposal with his negotiating style. In the business world, Trump had a reputation for taking very aggressive negotiating positions that gave him room to compromise and still come out way ahead. That obviously works best when you go into the fray with lots of leverage. It’s a bit like the advice I get from my doctor when I ask about avoiding heart trouble. He tells me to pick my parents well. Part of Trump’s business genius has been the ability to choose the deals he pursued well; ones where he had leverage and could design negotiating tactics to take full advantage.

The transition from business to DC is not straightforward, in part because the leverage points are different, and that seems to be a learning process for Trump. For big things to get done, Trump needs congressional support. But finding the right levers to move Congress remains a work in process. Negotiations are all about preparation, being brutally honest with yourself about what you want, and studying what the other guy wants and then designing a set of negotiating strategies and tactics to get more of the former. In business deals, the goals tend to be financial, so while the analysis might be complex, the measuring stick is clear. But in DC, jobs one through 10 are to get re-elected. I often scratch my head about positions taken by our esteemed representatives because their goals are so inconsistent with a business deal-maker’s mindset. Seeing folks who prefer to be, rather than do, something may not compute, but it is what it is, and successful negotiators need to accept that and act accordingly.

Not sure that has sunk in yet for Trump. Exhibit A was the focus on threatening to cancel congressional health care insurance subsidies as a repeal/replace lever. That may be annoying to Congress, but it doesn’t move the dial in terms of re-election prospects. For that Trump needs to use his enormous communication skills to rally public support, bump his poll numbers, and create the fear/leverage that he has influence over the outcomes of jobs one through 10. Carrots and sticks surely both play a role, but with earmarks largely a thing of the past, the carrot more resembles coattails, and the stick becomes more prominent. But the stick has to have credibility and is usually best done behind closed doors. Without understanding theses push/pulls, it’s a bit like focusing on trying to sell municipalities on the benefits of your real estate project, only to discover that your competitor has bribed the zoning board.

Contrary to media conventional wisdom, stopping the tweets is exactly the wrong answer. Let Trump continue to be Trump with a direct pipeline to the folks, but channel the message. That’s what got him elected. The agenda is a great one and will resonate with enough folks to tilt the congressional playing field. Success breeds success. It just needs to be presented continually as a coordinated focused message — personal rallies, tweets and official events/speeches all require the discipline to stay on message, keep the staff on board, and make optimal use of the vast Trump communication skills. Managing the White House is important, but steering the Boss is more so. If the Mooch matter is any indication, getting the general in place with the clout to act and aiming his efforts with the Boss in this direction could be the turning point.