The Patriot Post® · Trump Negotiations Continued

I have a few more observations on the Donald Trump negotiating style from the weekend news and cable shows, but a more general comment first.

It’s difficult to keep things that matter in perspective these days. On the one hand we have the mainstream media, led by CNN and MSNBC, granting over 100 on-air interviews to the lawyer of a porn actress who supposedly had a one-night stand with the current president 10 years ago. Estimates of the value of equivalent ad time run to nine figures. I wonder if that is considered an in-kind campaign contribution to the DNC?

On the other hand you have virtual crickets from the same media sources on what arguably is the single most egregious use of government power against its citizens in memory. For some time that distinction was held by the previous administration, which used the power of its intel and law enforcement agencies to get permission to spy on members of the opposition party by lying to the court responsible for granting that action. This was nudged into the silver medal position last week with a report indicating that the FBI may have planted a spy inside the Trump campaign. If the timing of this is as reported, it also undercuts the entirety of the FBI claims that it used leaks from a Trump campaign staffer about information he received from a foreign ambassador to justify the Russian probes.

Lies upon lies to allow the government to spy on citizens of the opposition party. The only thing worse would have been if Hillary Clinton were in the White House. Then the behavior of this sort would not be the stuff of banana republics but rather a résumé enhancer.

Back to Trump and his multi-prong negotiating strategy. Look at what happened on the North Korea front. Kim Jong-un unilaterally agrees to junk his nuclear weapons testing facility and allow media observation of the event. Trump correctly gives Kim an “attaboy” while continuing to up the stakes by expressing optimism that a total deal can be cut. The naysayers are appalled, fretting that the expectations are too high, and if things go south, there is no option left but war. But that’s the whole point. They neglect to note that this has far more downside to Kim than Trump. Trump has maneuvered the situation, including whatever he is doing with China (and don’t discount the announcement yesterday that Trump is reconsidering sanctions against the Chinese phone giant ZTE), to a point where, ironically, Kim now views his nuke program as more of a liability than an asset. Sure, it may be a bit more risky, but if the anti-Trumpers were really honest about who has more leverage, it is far more in Trump’s camp.

Then Trump dispatched Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to make two profound statements. First, in response to a question about giving Kim security guarantees if he totally, irrevocably and verifiably gets rid of his nuke program, Pompeo immediately said “Of course.” In other words, Kim can remain king. This goes to the heart of the quid pro quo if you believe that Kim is motivated by the fact that it is good to keep that title. I have long held the belief that Trump should borrow a page out of the Cuban missile crisis book and offer a “no invasion” pledge in exchange for dismantling the nuke program. Pompeo added in a separate speech that we would also be prepared to lift sanctions and work with North Korea to provide economic benefits and help its people achieve prosperity that “will rival that of our friends in South Korea.” It was brilliant phrasing that gave North Korea equal potential status and implied the North could be our friend too.

The “no invasion” pledge will not be enough to seal the deal, but it could be the first step in what will almost certainly have to be some kind of phased stair-step approach. It’s an ice-in-winter give and would set the stage for a more rapid all-encompassing deal that must have proof of North Korea’s dismantling its nuke program before any economic benefits are granted. My hope is that no invasion can be the one concession that will cause North Korea to be willing to go first on the total elimination of its nukes, after which things like economic goodies, treaties and even troop reductions can occur.

Iran was next. Trump is adamant that tougher-than-ever sanctions on Iran are coming, including against any European company that does business with Iran. When Pompeo was asked about that, he repeated that the sanction protocols are well known by everyone (tacitly including Europe), but his goal of improving the Iran deal was still paramount and included permanent restrictions on developing a nuke program with full verification and changing Iranian behavior in the region. The Iranians will try to drive a wedge between Trump and European governments that are beholden to their companies that have major Iranian business arrangements, but Trump will not bend to that, and those efforts will eventually fail because the choice of doing business with the U.S. versus Iran is a no-brainer. Combine that with tough sanctions against Iran’s fragile economy, and again, Trump has the upper hand.

There is risk, of course, that Iran will ramp up its proxy forces in the region like it tried to with Israel, but how did that work out? And any claim from Iran that it will crank its nuke program back up is also a bluff. If it did that, it would totally undercut its attempts to split the Europeans from Trump because that would violate whatever agreements it still claim to have in place with the non-U.S. participants. It may take some time for the impact of economic efforts to take effect, but the leverage once again rests with Trump if he stays the course. As in North Korea, regime change is not job number one if the components of the deals, which are clearly understood, can be achieved by other means. But the threat is real and has a major way of focusing the mind.

And finally, to drive the points home further: Trump is opening the U.S. embassy in Jerusalem this week. In for a dime and all that.