July 28, 2011

Dreaming of a Post August 2nd World

I have a recurring dream of a post August 2nd world. It could be apocalyptic. According to every Democrat politician and the mainstream media, failure to raise the debt ceiling ipso facto results in national financial default, soaring interest rates, and economic calamity – not just in the United States but globally. The entire world is sure to sink into a severe Depression unrivalled in human history.

But this is not my dream.

It could be beneficent. Apparently the debt ceiling is the only real problem right now. It is thus important that we raise it high enough to avoid the issue until after the elections. If we do so, the effects will be inherently positive and economic recovery is certain.

But this is not my dream.

It could be a dream of continued political warfare. If we ratchet the debt ceiling ever so slightly, in exchange for ever so slight budget cuts, some political heads will roll come election day.

But this is not my dream.

Some anticipate, and perhaps even long for a stalemate. No deal at all. No small and short term increase in the debt ceiling in exchange for small spending cuts. No larger increase in the debt ceiling designed to get us past the 2012 elections in exchange for mythical future budget decreases. When you are out of money the only budget that really counts is today’s, tomorrow’s, next week, this year. Budget cuts on projected future increases in spending for next year are a pipe dream.

Closer, and in the real world, not necessarily a bad choice, but this is not my dream. At least with a stalemate, once and for all politicians should be forced to acknowledge this truth – not raising the debt ceiling does not mean a default. The government has plenty of income to pay those bills that must be paid to avoid a financial default. Things like interest on the staggering debt they have run up and the salaries of those in the military that have volunteered to protect us. They can also pay the social security benefits of retirees, despite the political lie that such “entitlements” are a firm obligation.

In my dream a small increase in tax revenue makes an appearance. Not an increase in tax rates on the so-called rich, or successful small businesses or profitable corporations. Just a bit of extra revenue that might result from changes that dramatically simplify the tax code, reduce its inherent social engineering, eliminate subsidies and other corporate welfare, in exchange for lower rates for all. In my dream there is a palpable sense that my generation has been stealing from our children and grandchildren for our own gratification and this has gone on far too long. There is an acknowledgement that we must step up and pay our own bills. They may have been run up without our agreement but it still happened on our watch. Eventually this increase in tax revenue turns out to be a parable pointing to a much bigger truth.

My dream is inspirational when experienced, yet so far removed from reality that some would call it fantasy. Often I succumb to the pessimistic view that my dream is impossible. And then I remember some of my earlier dreams.

As a young child in 1962 I dreamed that man would someday go to the moon and live for extended periods in space.

In 1963 I had a dream that a black man is elected President of the United States. Many years later, this dream occasionally recurs and I now know that black man is politically conservative and will be a great success.

In 1973 I dreamed I would marry the woman of my dreams and we would have two healthy baby boys that would grow into fine men.

In 1985 I dreamed that the Soviet Union would disintegrate and the Berlin Wall would fall.

Throughout my life I had a vivid recurring dream that the San Francisco Giants would win the World Series. I now dream they will win another one.

Is my current dream any more impossible than these dreams seemed when I experienced them?

In my current dream, Congress and the President come together on August 2nd in a bi-partisan fashion and announce the following: “We will not raise the debt ceiling but will immediately cap and begin to reduce our national debt. We will make the hard spending choices necessary to accomplish this. We will reduce the regulatory burden on the economy. We will overhaul our tax code to simplify the system, eliminate loopholes and corporate welfare, lower rates for all, and make it easier and more profitable for companies to do business in the United States and hire citizens of the United States.” In the following weeks and months they follow through with specific legislation implementing these promises. Perhaps you can imagine what happens. At first there are some troubled times for some individuals. But financial capital floods into the United States. Instead of being seen as an increasing risk, we are once again known to be the safest and most productive haven for capital. The increased supply of capital drives interest rates lower on both treasury securities and business debt. Immense amounts of capital are made available to American businesses to take advantage of the new financial reality of the United States. Employment soars. Even those that initially experienced troubles find good jobs or start their own businesses. Tax revenues increase dramatically and the need for government benefits declines precipitously. The federal government generates a surplus which is used to pay down its debt, infusing even more capital into the economy. We actually pay our own national bills instead of pushing them on our children and grandchildren.

In my dreams I look forward to this post August 2nd world.

David Butler is happily married to a Blue Star Mom, a proud father of two young men, and a small business executive living in Danville, CA.

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