The Right Opinion

This Storm Is Long Overdue!

By Joe Bastardi · Oct. 25, 2012

Since the weekend I have been loudly warning Weatherbell clients that an historic storm is in the making. For years I have wondered why a storm like what I have forecasted – a hurricane hit on the mid or north Atlantic Coast from the southeast – has not occurred. In this case a tropical cyclone is entrained into a massive early season cold air mass and is forced to turn northwest into the Mid-Atlantic States. In fact, in talks I give about hurricanes, I show the example of this kind of storm, which I call the “Philadelphia Story” – a hurricane hits the mid Atlantic states from the southeast near or south of the mouth of the Delaware Bay. It sends its storm surge up Delaware Bay which is funnel shaped, much like the 1938 hurricane did in Providence, and that rising storm surge is met by flooding coming down the Delaware River. The flooding is worse than it would have been, because the lakes that were not dammed up years ago are, so they must release their water downstream into the river. In addition such a storm would devastate the Jersey shore worse than 1944.

But here is the key point: It is a product of past events that we have seen, that have never happened to combine in one place. Instead of asking why something like this is happening, I have always wondered why it has not!

Weatherbell.com has been saying since the start of the hurricane season that the end of the season this year would feature a tropical cyclone coming out of the Caribbean that would threaten the East Coast. Just like the season started with in-close storms, we felt it would end with it, too. 3 weeks ago we told clients again the pattern was setting up for this.

On Sunday we put out a chart hitting NYC from the SSE with this storm, even before it was named, with a 75kt hurricane early next week. My forecast today has been adjusted a bit south but calls for this to go into New Jersey with a major snowstorm on the western side from western PA into WVA. Clients have been told this is a multi billion dollar storm in the making where it hits, and that this could be the worse ever in some places along the Mid-Atlantic Coast. While there is still room for me to be wrong, the window is closing on the chance of this escaping. And what I always wondered about, looks like will happen.

It will not be because of Global warming, but because of the combination of natural events that will cause it. In fact, my father, a degreed meteorologist, would show me tracks from hurricanes when I was a kid and then say, “all one needs to do was move that track a couple of hundred miles and what appears to be ready to happen now, would happen.” The point there is that this was seen as something that could happen years ago, even by people in the field before me. If it does occur, it will be because of nature, not man.

Please join us on Weatherbell.com to track this event. If you wish, take a trial run on our site to see the intricate details (you can even go back to the archives to see how long we have been setting this up.) The weather is a majestic display of creation, and something as a man I am in awe of. We can't control it, but we can watch and try to understand it!

Joe Bastardi is chief forecaster at WeatherBELL Analytics, a meteorological consulting firm.

© Copyright 2012 The Patriot Post

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17 Comments

wjm in Colorado said:

The enviro whackos will have a field day touting this projected storm as some form of "climate change". Golbal Cooling was a farce, then Global Warming, so now any major storm is proof of Climate Change, another farce. When will these zealots of insanity give it a rest? Proven wrong over and over, at what point do they get up, look at themselves in the mirror, and say it ain't so? Maybe they look to their Algore poster in the living room, and just start a song of Puff the Magic Dragon?

Thursday, October 25, 2012 at 10:08 AM

rab in jo,mo replied:

"Maybe they look to their Algore poster in the living room," take a few hits off their bong, "and just start a song of Puff the Magic Dragon?"

Fixed it for you. :)

Thursday, October 25, 2012 at 11:13 AM

richard ryan in Lamar,Missouri said:

I have been saying that George W. Bush should go down in history as the greatest president of the 21st. century for the simple fact that he kept Gore from ever being president of this country. Now that would have been a man made disaster of epic proportions.

Thursday, October 25, 2012 at 11:40 AM

JIm Garafalo in Catskill, NY said:

Joe, During Irene the Greene County Catskill in New York State took the wurst of Irene. A Town in our County Prattsville was basically wipe off the map with Historical Flooding. We recieved over 20" of rain from Irene. There are still people living in FEMA Trailers. Does Sandy poise the same threat.

Thursday, October 25, 2012 at 11:43 AM

Jim Bob jr in West Salem, VA said:

I guess "Please keep comments civil and brief. Obscene, profane, abusive and off-topic comments will be deleted. Repeat offenders will be blocked." does not apply if you are bashing the "enviro whackos "

Thursday, October 25, 2012 at 11:58 AM

rab in jo,mo replied:

I guess some people were born without a sense of humor.

I've been called a "denier", 'ignorant", "unscientific", and a "stupid redneck" because I won't buy the "man-made climate change" stuff spewed by Algore, but let someone imply that the proponents of same are smoking dope and someone gets their panties all wadded up. Sheesh!

Thursday, October 25, 2012 at 2:13 PM

richard ryan in Lamar,Missouri replied:

Jim Bob, the problem is that there is no civil way to reply to, or refer to the envior whack jobs. You have to get down on the same simplistic mindless level, and that`s pretty hard to do.

Thursday, October 25, 2012 at 5:52 PM

JO in Somewhere, NY replied:

Nope.

Thursday, April 11, 2013 at 9:04 PM

jay Woodward in Highlands nj Jersey shore Sandy Hook said:

Great article!! I have read so much on how man and Global Warming is causing this !! Not TRUE !! Keep up the good work !!!

Thursday, October 25, 2012 at 1:22 PM

S. in Halles said:

Thank you Joe. You're the best!

Thursday, October 25, 2012 at 2:33 PM

JtC in TX replied:

What S. Said.

Thursday, October 25, 2012 at 2:53 PM

Steph in Barto, PA said:

Joe, I followed you during your tenure with Accuweather and you consistently blew my mind on the accuracy of your long-range forecasts. Now, I follow you on Twitter. People laughed at me when I first told them of your storm forecast early this week. They've changed their tunes now. My family is better prepared for this storm because we didn't wait for either Accuweather or TWC to agree with you.

Thursday, October 25, 2012 at 7:28 PM

Kevin from Arkansas in USA said:

All I can say is if this storm has to hit I'm glad it's soon and not the week of the election. I can just see the Democrats screaming about postponing Election Day or extending it. They may still try.

Thursday, October 25, 2012 at 8:31 PM

Wayne in Hinesville, GA replied:

KN, Just heard on the news that Virginia is already talking about extending election day until the 7th depending on how much damage Sandy does. I hope it doesn't happen because we will have enough voter fraud as it is. It would give the Demorats another day to find more fraudlent voters.

Friday, October 26, 2012 at 6:14 PM

Ted Strecker in Pittsburgh, Pa said:

Joe,

I have followed you and your weather forecasts for many years. I first heard you on a South Texas radio station, KFTX. You were always ahead of the curve with your winter forecasting down there. Summers, with the exception of hurricanes were pretty mundane weather wise. I have always respected your meteorological insight as well as your staunch and firm positions on Global warming. I appreciate you Mr. Bastardi for everything you do both in the weather field and how it relates to human beings and politics in general. Thank You.

Highest Regards,
Ted B. Strecker

Sunday, October 28, 2012 at 8:52 PM

Mike in NY said:

Congratulations Joe on your forecast. Finally after calling for this storm for the last 10 years it finally came to fruition. I guess even a blind pig will find an acorn once in awhile.

Tuesday, October 30, 2012 at 10:23 PM

Dick Vader in Cleveland Ohio said:

Im a weather Hobbyist and remember when i was a kid the hurricanes from the 1950s like Hazel,Carol,etc.. I remember Hazel went up thru North Carolina and passed near Washington DC up to near Toronto Ontario..

Thursday, November 29, 2012 at 2:27 AM