The Right Opinion

Was It Global Warming When Stronger Hurricanes Hit the East Coast in the 1950s?

By Joe Bastardi · Nov. 2, 2012

The following three articles by me have dealt in some degree before the fact on the matter of Hurricanes and climate change: This Storm Is Long Overdue!, Increased U.S. Hurricane Threat in Coming Years, Hurricanes and Climate Change.

It is frustrating to be out in front of the hurricane threat on the U.S. Coast, and then have people who either have not looked, or have, and are simply ignoring the facts, come in after the fact and make their claims. I have referred to these people as weather “voyeurs.” They only look when it suits their purpose. In the private sector, our fight is every day, and the knowledge of the past and the reasons for the weather and climate are the foundations for any success in the future. A good meteorologist has to know his weather and climate history or he will fall prey to the whims of the computer models. Perhaps you saw some of that with Hurricane Sandy. Until the middle of the week before the storm, the U.S. generated model was taking the storm out to sea and there was denial in some circles that Sandy was going to come back and hit the coast.

Of course, the usual suspects piled on the disaster train once it became obvious, to push their AGW agenda. They are nowhere to be found before the fact, but certainly come out of the woodwork after. I leave the reader to judge the tree by the fruit on it.

Here are a few reminders that will assure you that a storm like Sandy is well within the realm of what nature can, and in reality, should do, especially given the cycle we are in, which is very similar to the 1950s (cooling Pacific, with a still warm Atlantic). This cycle was forecasted years ago by Dr William Gray from Colorado State, and for my money, he was spot on. As with many visionaries, he was scoffed at, and what is particularly galling is now that it is happening, people pushing AGW try to discredit him. But his generation of meteorologist that did not rely on computers had a keen sense of the past and actual weather rather than the virtual reality type forecasting that seems to be in vogue today. Example: Look at the ride the climate models have taken us on. Their forecast for warming has obviously gone astray as seen below:

You have seen the chart many times, but it does not get old, nor does the fact change that the earth is no longer warming, but CO2 is going up. That chart should be enough to debunk the AGW idea on hurricanes since if the earth is not warming, it can't be warming that is causing more hurricane hits. The other problem is that there are not more hurricane hits – the total global tropical activity is down! The Global ACE index (accumulated cyclonic energy) which gives us an objective way at looking at total global tropical cyclone activity, has tailed off to record low levels:

So we have two objective measurements saying that:

a.) The earth is no longer warming.
b.) Tropical activity is not getting worse.

Interestingly enough, as if to teach a lesson to the Nobel Committee, the tropical activity started tailing off most strongly after Al Gore was awarded a Nobel prize for his movie “An Inconvenient Truth.” The actual Truth is the opposite (which is inconvenient, though apparently largely ignored by Al Gore.)

But the irony grows even richer when one considers the fact that hurricane hits on the U.S. Coast were greatest when there was less CO2!

Now, if I wanted to demagogue this in the spirit of some of the AGW advocates, I could say, “Look, more CO2 drives down hurricane hits!” But I know there is no proof of that. But I also know that given the actual facts, it's certainly not leading to more hits!

Finally, the cycle we have entered is one that should lead to more storms hitting the East Coast. This happened in the 1950s – the Pacific cooled, the Atlantic was in its warm cycle, and the resultant climate pattern lead to drought and heat over much of the nation in the summer, and increased hurricane hits on the East Coast. The facts are clear: The 1950s had a road map of destruction up the East Coast, not 2 in 2 years (by the way, neither Irene or Sandy were major hurricanes by the 1950's standards, so one can say we still are not close to where we were. Sandy was a major hurricane on my power scale, which I am trying to replace the Saffir Simpson Scale with … another story for another time.) But this map speaks for itself:

By the way, the destruction of Sandy, as bad as it was, is not the “ultimate” storm by any means for the Northeast, the same way Katrina was not the “ultimate” storm for New Orleans. While not wishing to bore you with the details, in my hurricane talks I cover the tracks of storms that would cause the most damage to the various areas of the coast that have been hit over the past 20 years (again we have been lucky compared to the 1940s and 1950s.) If you are interested in this, I do give talks on this and please feel free to contact the office on it. The more people I can get my message out to, the more I can do to counter the distortions that are out there.

In the end, blaming Sandy on Global Warming or “Climate Change” is, as I put it on the O'Reilly Factor, shockingly ignorant or shockingly deceptive. The facts are clear on this and not hard to see, if one simply looks!

The following is my discussion with Bill O'Reilly on Al Gore's comments connecting AGW to Sandy:

Joe Bastardi is chief forecaster at WeatherBELL Analytics, a meteorological consulting firm.

© Copyright 2012 The Patriot Post


Army Officer (Ret) in Kansas said:

A person with no memory will be surprised when the sun rises in the East.

Widespread knowledge of history is a society's collective memory. When few people bother with history, most people will be surprised when utterly predictable events (like East Coast hurricanes) occur.

Friday, November 2, 2012 at 4:50 PM

Wayne in Hinesville, GA replied:

Army Officer, If you look at the history being taught in our schools an Universities yoiu will undestand why it doesn;t ring a bell with these folks. Most of the main events in our History are no longer taught and now the big thing is to denigrate our Founding fathers. They can't see that our system of government has survived all these years because until recently the Constitutiion was honored and not beiing interpreted as a "living document" that has to evolve to match the left-wing agenda.. Liberals are brain-dead and have no idea of just how great this nation is as compared to the rest of the world. They should have to live in some of these countries and then maybe, just maybe, they wouldn't be so eager to change our country.

Sunday, November 4, 2012 at 4:19 PM

p3orion in Midland, Georgia replied:

Oh, but you can bet that children in public schools next month will know that the traffic light (that pinnacle of human technology) was invented by a black man!

Friday, January 10, 2014 at 12:46 PM

Richard of CT in Cheshire, CT said:

As a child in the 1950's I recall the experience of those incredible hurricanes. And it wasn't just one per year. There were years when two or three hit my home town of New Haven, CT. Year after year for most of the 1950 and into the early 1960 we had hurricanes as bad and in most cases worse than we've seen with Irene and Sandy.
One of the facts that gets lost in all the hype of the Goreistas is that far more people are living in the coastal areas than there were back then.
AGW is a hoax perpetrated to squeeze more money and more political power out of the hands of the American people.
Gore is a phat phony.

Saturday, November 3, 2012 at 12:36 AM

Anymoose in Cheyenne, WY said:

Joe, I love your no-B.S. style!

Saturday, November 3, 2012 at 1:32 PM

Tony in Columbia, MO said:

Joe's understanding of the science, but especially his command of weather history, are first rate. He's right on when discussing Sandy and climate change.

Saturday, November 3, 2012 at 2:37 PM

sunforester in left coast said:

Joe Cassandra tells the truth, but the people who count still won't listen or respond appropriately. Look at our top global insurers: all of them have their own sizeable climate change think tanks and talk climate change to the press nonstop. All of our insurers who are supposed to be the experts in what is real vs. what is fake are backing the party line that climate change is real. Are they shockingly ignorant or shockingly deceptive?

Neither. They are under the bootheel of the governments who rule their lives and control their fates, demanding our insurers to act as if man-made climate change truly exists. They are under the bootheel of a United Nations that uses climate change to extort wealth from allegedly polluter nations in order to redistribute it generously to those nations allegedly suffering the consequences of climate change. They are under the bootheel of our own government that hands out billions in green energy boondoggles to cronies, and insists that our insurers reconfigure their strategies to establish the artificially jacked-up premiums they take from us and the subsequent lavish payouts they will make to undeserving recipients on account of climate change.

It is not only we the people who must acknowledge the lie of climate change. It is those who are in charge who are the people who must be either dissuaded or thrown completely OUT of office. I don't count on liars, thieves and racketeers in public office to change their tune, but I very, very much hope that we the people will be able at long last to throw them OUT of office. The sooner we have leaders who don't exploit junk science in laws and regulations for their own benefit, the better our future will be for us all.

Sunday, November 4, 2012 at 11:38 AM

Kurt.S in Missouri said:

I think that what a lot of these "the world is warming" climatologists need is a "weather beetle" like Granny Clampett had on the TV show "the Beverly Hillbillies". Then they wouldn't have to bog themselves down with facts.
Thanks, Joe for keeping things straight.

Monday, November 5, 2012 at 12:13 PM

Alan in St Cloud, MN. said:

The Main Ingredient when forecasting Weather, that is totally missing, in all this discussion, is the ALMIGHTY. I base all my weather forecasts, on the wrath of the Almighty. due to an extremely sinful Nation, all you have to do, is look at all the RECORD WEATHER events in the last 5-7yrs. Not to mention all, the plagues and curses of the 100's of invasive species, that have infected the USA. TO know that the Almighty is not happy with this Nation. Yes weather conditions maybe the same, as they were back in the 50's, However the Almighty is the same today, as he was yesterday. So the USA can expect more corrective punishment from the Almighty, to intensify and grow worse. The democrats deny the Almighty, beat their chests that he doesn't exist, and the republicans, (to include foxnews) are too scared, to call the democrats for what they are...and thus the USA Suffers...

Sunday, December 2, 2012 at 1:05 PM

Steven Yaskell in Mount Holly, Vermont said:

Newer data on solar-earth connection possibilities arise in my newest book, Grand Phases On The Sun: the case for a mechanism responsible for extended solar minima and maxima by Trafford Publishers (15.90 US D online). Covered for instance is the Hadley Cell and Quasi-Biennial Oscillation from a solar-science perspective.

Sunday, January 13, 2013 at 3:55 PM

1 old codger in Bellevue,WA said:

Having been born in 1932 on Long Island,NY and lived around there until 1972. I experiemced to one degree or another many the numerous Hurricanes of that period. The ones that cme by my parents hourse were pretty distructive . But media andn other technology did not permit either accurate and timely forecoasting or the visual broadcating of thier ferocity. to the same extentasthat exisits today. It is only oldcogers like me who canconfirm from experience the accuracy of whwat you now report. The repeated repbuilding along the vulnerable shorelines with public funds. is the very definition of iinsanity. .

Thursday, January 9, 2014 at 2:38 PM