The Right Opinion

Using Facts to Fight

By Joe Bastardi · Dec. 11, 2012

The AGW Agenda is on a major offensive now. The election, Hurricane Sandy, the warm start to winter in the U.S. (that will switch around) and the latest World Climate Conference, has lead to a barrage of disinformation.

Their strategy is to come out with strongly worded ideas on impending doom, use the current weather if it's warm (or there was a major storm) and tell the public this is proof.

Through it all, the facts remain that the science, economics and social high ground is on the side of those that don't believe in human induced global warming, for the economies of the world would prosper most with all forms of energy being used, as billions of people are being sentenced to a life of little hope with no change to their fate in sight.

The more I study this, the more I cannot figure out, using common sense, how this argument is raging. The AGW side claims there is no doubt, yet if we look at actual facts, it appears that there is not only doubt, but evidence CO2 cannot be a factor in regulating climate. It may react to the climate, but it is not the driver.

First of all, from a piece by Dr. Robert Brown at Duke University, “On certainty: Truth is the Daugher of Time”:

“[T]he Ordovician Silurian ice age began with CO2 levels of 7000 ppm. That is around 17 times the current level, almost 1% of the atmosphere CO2 – and persisted for millions of years with CO2 levels consistently in the ballpark of 4000 ppm.”

This immediately calls into question the idea that CO2 causes warming. Is one to argue that the ice age would have even been colder with lesser amounts of CO2?

But there is much more, though I will only show a few.

Climatologist Cliff Harris and Meteorologist Randy Mann have constructed a chart of global temperatures with their projection of temperatures to 2040 (which I don't agree with – I believe it will cool). While Cliff, Randy and I can argue about the coming weather, we are all in agreement on the past:

I don't believe this shows up in Al Gore's movie. This is an inconvenient truth that he did not want you to see.

And since the start of the satellite era, when we can measure temperatures objectively, temperatures have looked like this with CO2 on its merry way up, while ocean temps and air temps seem to be moving in tandem:

So how does someone say it's warming, since it no longer is, and CO2 is to blame, since the leveling off is correlated with the leveling off in the rise of water temperatures?

But apparently global warming is occurring faster than “we thought.” Kind of odd since the models they based all this on are plainly wrong:

Let's look at the absurd notion that CO2 is leading to the increase in hurricane related disasters.

This chart by Dr. William Gray of Colorado State shows us that as CO2 rises, the hits on the U.S. Coast by major hurricanes has fallen:

I want to be clear: I would never say that more CO2 means less major hurricane hits because I don't think CO2 has anything to do with it. So you don't see me “spinning” this to say that. BUT IT SURELY CAN'T MEAN THAT IT MEANS THERE ARE MORE MAJOR HURRICANES HITTING, BECAUSE THE FACTS SAY THE OPPOSITE! So saying that is simply lying. Let's call it what it is.

Additionally, Global Tropical Cyclone activity has fallen:

The use of Sandy as an example of CO2 induced disasters on the way is pure deceit. Trying to use an event that is a) not indicative of CO2 induced warming and b) uses only one example on the East Coast – where hurricane activity is long overdue given the natural cycle – as evidence of the impending global problem, is again deceit.

As far as the ice caps, the northern ice cap is well below normal, but since the turn of the Pacific to colder, the western part of the cap around Alaska has experienced record growth. The northern ice cap will recover once the current warm cycle of the Atlantic ends, which should be in 10 years. But lack of ice is nothing new here:

August 1959

May 1987

But the outright lie has to do with the southern hemisphere ice, which hit a record high this year in their cold season

It's been nice and warm in the U.S. this past week, but get ready: Winter is coming (it has already started in the plains) and lest we forget, there were 2 snow events in the I-95 corridor from Philadelphia northeastward in November, a rare event. But did the AGW people let you know what is going on in Europe, or the far east, or Alaska where November was the coldest on record, BEATING LAST YEAR'S RECORD? It was 10 years ago that AGW people were saying that snow and cold would be increasingly rare in Europe, and this is now the 4th severe winter in a row with winter weather causing havoc.

Alaska – the supposed Canary in the coal mine of global warming because it was warm when the Pacific was in its warm phase – is in for yet another severe winter with record rapid ice growth in the seas around them. Frozen canaries can't sing.

It is clear what the strategy is. Al Gore claims the earth has a fever (no, the solution is not “more cowbell” for you SNL fans). Instead, it's to debunk AGW claims at every turn.

In fact, the AGW idea is akin to filling up your bathtub with hot water, noticing that the air in the bathroom warms and the mirror steams up, and then concluding it was because you turned on the light when you went in.

We own the high ground, the science, the economic and the social aspects of this fight. There is no reason to be on the defensive when you are in the right, and the use of facts in the face of the opposition and demanding they explain their positions against these facts is the way to counter this assault.

Joe Bastardi is chief forecaster at WeatherBELL Analytics, a meteorological consulting firm.

© Copyright 2012 The Patriot Post

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33 Comments

Wayne in Hinesville, GA said:

Mr. Bastardi, Don't confuse the left with facts. They can't handle the truth and will go into a rage if you prove they are wrong. Facts to them are messy and not necessary to their agenda. Only their truth counts and even if yours is the correct truth they will deny it. They will make every effort to mislead the public concerning any issue whether it be Global Warming, Benghazi, Fast and Furious, etc. Lenin and Stalin would be proud of them!

Tuesday, December 11, 2012 at 11:13 AM

Robinius in Broomfield, Colorado said:

Facts? We don need no stinkin facts!

Tuesday, December 11, 2012 at 11:40 AM

John L in Birmingham said:

Isn't part of this issue Joe the sheer contradictory nature of the alarmists? For example from your article - lower cyclonic activity as a result of a warmer world is arguable in a sensible manner (albeit I worry about identifying trends in a chaotic system creating false positive results simply through extrapolation of where you place your data points). Its the having your cake and eating it of using any and every weather event as evidence that needs to be challenged. If a warming world reduces cyclonic activity, how can one "superstorm" be evidence for a meme of "climate chaos"?

Exposing contradictions is, although tiring, an essential part of the process.

Tuesday, December 11, 2012 at 11:44 AM

P. Long in Texas said:

Control and power. That's all the whole mess amounts to. Look up and read about Agenda 21. (All tied together. Global Warming: Greenies: Sustainable Development: Animal Rights)

Tuesday, December 11, 2012 at 12:30 PM

Common Sense in Boston replied:

Indeed . . . in particular, the tie between AGW Deniers and the Big Oil Agenda.

Tuesday, December 11, 2012 at 12:44 PM

Tapdaddy in Indiana replied:

There is no such thing as common sense anywhere in Massachusetts.

Tuesday, December 11, 2012 at 2:32 PM

wjm in Colorado replied:

You display a complete void of Sense...

Wednesday, December 12, 2012 at 10:33 AM

richard ryan in Lamar,Missouri said:

When you`ve been around nigh on to 80 years as I have, you learn to become skeptical of weather alarmists. I remember very well something like 40 years ago when the same crowd was crying "global cooling and an impending new ice age caused by, you guessed it, CO2. I refuse to get my undies in a wad over the global warming hoax. Climate change we have and always will. It just ain`t caused by man`s activity.

Tuesday, December 11, 2012 at 12:33 PM

Common Sense in Boston said:

"Out of 3.8 million sq miles of the U.S., only an area half the size of Rhode Island actually has below normal temps so far this month!" - H. Margusity

Tuesday, December 11, 2012 at 12:42 PM

Joe Bastardi in Boalsbirg replied:

As a trained meteorologist, you should look at the entire planet so far this month. The Forecasted temps over the landmasses of the northern hemisphere in the 8-16 day period, of which the US is less than 10%, but now over 90% of the country is forecasted cold, is close to -2.0C against the normals. Make sure when dispersing information in a global argument, you let people know what the global picture is, not merely the US ( a point I made above, which assumes the reader wont go and look at the entire picture. Such an assumption relies on ignorance, rather than the total factual picture, to make a point). I suspect between the 20th and the 30th, the opposite of now will be true, or close too it. Nature being what it is has a sense of balance. Cheers- JB

Tuesday, December 11, 2012 at 2:00 PM

Common Sense in Boston replied:

If the US is freakishly above normal, divert attention to the rest of the world. If the Arctic Sea Ice is the lowest ever recorded, divert atention to the Antarctic. If the facts don't support your argument, redefine your terms. Brilliant dissemblance. Unfortunately, as thin and transparent as your forecasts.

Tuesday, December 11, 2012 at 2:12 PM

wjm in Colorado replied:

You delusional tool, you can't understand factual analysis if it interferes with your idiocy. You exemplify the braind dead idiots that support AGW. Your facts don't support your arguments. You are in reality Brain Dead in Boston.

Wednesday, December 12, 2012 at 10:36 AM

Joe Bastardi in Boalsbirg said:

Folks here is that 8-16 day forecast.

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/278526483331440640/photo/1

The warmth in the US,after the coldest November in NYC in over 15 years btw ( 2 can play the cherry pick game) is about to come to an end right in time to put us all in the merry holiday spirit. I would hope when this occurs, that anyone pointing out who warm its been in less than 10% of the northern hemisphere will actually show the total picture.

Tuesday, December 11, 2012 at 2:06 PM

Common Sense in Boston replied:

The hottest year in the US, EVER, on record. The 15th year IN A ROW of above ave. temps. That cherry makes yours look like a shriveled raisin. When you're driveling on about Siberia, Alaska and the Antactic in the face of unprecedented North American warmth, don't kid yourself, you're collecting your own bushel of cherries. But your harvest is blighted, my friend. When you were insisting 30 days ago that the "Hammer of frigid cold was going to SLAM the US starting in December, leading to one of the coldest, snowiest on record" and here on the 11th we continue to bask in spring-like warmth, why should your "8-16 day forecast" be anything but dismissed as not the careful analysis of a professional meteoroligist, but rather the continued rantings of a far-right, co-opted AGW Denier? Science skewed by politics is nothing but rubbish.

Tuesday, December 11, 2012 at 2:23 PM

Joe in Texas replied:

Hey dummy,

Bastardi just said that the cold winter will be coming later this month! It's the 11th. The end of December isn't the 1st. Moron.

Tuesday, December 11, 2012 at 2:37 PM

Common Sense in Boston replied:

And 30 days ago he said it would be the BEGINNING of December. That was my point, "Dummy."

Tuesday, December 11, 2012 at 2:47 PM

Joe in Texas replied:

"When you were insisting 30 days ago that the 'Hammer of frigid cold was going to SLAM the US starting in December, leading to one of the coldest, snowiest on record'"

"Starting in December" doesn't mean "the start of December". I'm using your own words, dummy. It's still December, so, technically it can still "start in December".

BTW, why are you arguing with a meteorologist anyway? Do you also tell neurosurgeons they're not operating right and farmers they're plowing the wrong way?

Tuesday, December 11, 2012 at 3:09 PM

Common Sense in Boston replied:

LOL!! When "one of the coldest, snowiest Decembers" actually turns out to be one of the warmest, snowless in decades, we'll see what other cock-and-bull "facts" you pull out of thin air to skew the facts, dissemble the truth, and further support this "political scientist". A flock of Faux News Sheep following their Emporer with No Clothes right off the fiscal cliff. BAAAAAAAAAA!!

Tuesday, December 11, 2012 at 4:58 PM

Joe in Texas replied:

Common, you've really lost it. An emporer is a head of state...that would be Obama.

And if you don't think academia practices politics supporting AGW so they get federal grants, you're even more delusional.

You're the sheep that follows conventional (non)wisdom. We question authority.

Tuesday, December 11, 2012 at 6:17 PM

JC Smith in Atlanta, GA replied:

Here's the 8 - 14 day outlook as of today at NOAA. Maybe this will help you guys with resolving the issue:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php

Thursday, December 27, 2012 at 8:20 AM

ArmyofOne in MN replied:

No common sense...I see you've fallen for the hoak of "scientific'" man-made global warming/climate change. Just wondering what is your 'scientific' expertice in relating such non-sense? Also please explain this as scientifically as you possibly can...Sunday it was 23 degress above zero. Today.. Tuesday it is 6 below zero. What do YOU call this? We call it "weather" and we EXPECT it to change every day! I bet even in Boston the temperatures don't remain the same all year round! I'll bet you are a Democrat and voted for Obama too...I believe you are a moron! Now that is a 'scientific fact', because it is the truth.

Tuesday, December 11, 2012 at 3:12 PM

Joe in Texas said:

I really don't understand how CO2, which makes up WAY less than 1% of the atmosphere can change world climate THAT much. Sorry but CO2 aint THAT strong.

It has to do with punishing energy companies by liberal pols who cater to enviro nuts...wackos that want all of us to walk to work, live in the city, and buy produce from local urban farms everyday just to eat.

My geology professors at U of Texas always talked about ice ages as the prominent reason for changing temps and we're currently peaking at the high temp phase.

Tuesday, December 11, 2012 at 2:33 PM

rab in jo,mo said:

Since we hit a record low of 17degrees last night and a high of 31 yesterday, I'd have to wave the bs flag on the global warming crowd. The facts show that we're in a global cooling phase. Next thing we'll hear about the "coming ice age" like we did in the '70s. Back then we were subject to all kinds of schemes to melt the polar ice.

It's simple, there's a great big heat engine ~93 million miles from Earth that controls our climate. The output of this heat engine fluctuates and causes periods of warming and cooling. If someone out there thinks we can globally affect the weather (outside of a massive nuclear winter), please explain how you would stop a tornado.

And yes, Joe has it right, CO2 levels follow warming not the other way around.

Tuesday, December 11, 2012 at 2:35 PM

Common Sense in Boston replied:

Funny . . . yet today you were a comfortable 48 and by Saturday you will be breaking records at 60+.

Tuesday, December 11, 2012 at 5:02 PM

Joe in Texas replied:

Dummy, they're called cold fronts. I'm sure he's heard of them. No, he won't be shocked if the temp rises again.

Tuesday, December 11, 2012 at 5:25 PM

rab in jo,mo replied:

Yep, cold front - the jet stream shifted. Funny, wind out of the north - gonna be cold, wind out of the south - gonna be warm.

Blow all the hot air you want, I don't think you're going to contol the wind, Common (non)Sense.

Wednesday, December 12, 2012 at 8:08 AM

wjm in Colorado replied:

Hey NO Sense, you are funny, funny in the head. Ignore facts at your peril, living in an urban environment, you will face the economic collapse first, and when you try to survive outside your urban meltdown, we who have prepared will speed you on your way to hell you traitor.

Wednesday, December 12, 2012 at 10:40 AM

Peter in Flen said:

Wish you were wrong !!!. Moving house on December 27 th and already so much snow as to make it difficult and more on the way. Its been like this for the last four years in Flen ( small town 100 km south of Stockholm Sweden)
Looking back to the early august in 1998 when we had tropical temps for a few days

Tuesday, December 11, 2012 at 4:04 PM

MAJ USA Ret in Saint Louis said:

When AGW supporters can explain how Vikings managed to raise two generations of wheat crops and livestock in Iceland during the middle ages, centuries before the our evil industrial age man-made CO2, then I might reconsider their claims.
Correlation is NOT causation. Just because two phenomena are correlated, even with a high ratio of correlation, does not indicate one caused the other. AGW observed increasing temperatures and correlated increasing human use of CO2. But they knew correlation is not causation. So they created simulations with dubious unproven assumptions that "proved" the increase in CO2 is causing global warming. Then a disgruntled embittered has-been (Al Gore) exploited the fears of the willing ignorant, hyped a movie and created a hysteria. Further money lobbying conferred him international acclaim, and voila, a movement is born of the willing ignorant led by greedy power elites.
Follow the money. Al Gore and his ilk are ROTFLTAO and drowning in money!
The rest of us must choose: search the truth or remain ignorant and proud of it.
(ROTFLTAO: "Rolling On The Floor Laughing Their A** Off")

Tuesday, December 11, 2012 at 4:50 PM

A Voice in the Wilderness . . . in Claremont, CA said:

The simple problem is that facts don't matter to these people - you can attack them with facts all day and they'll simply call you a name - and make fun of how you want cute little animals to die and have entire countries swamped by the oceans . . . you can't win with facts.

These people do not let facts get in the way of their belief system.

Tuesday, December 11, 2012 at 7:14 PM

Common Sense in Boston said:

3 storms next week, ALL rain for the I95 Corridor. Above ave. temps for the next 10 days. Record 60s in Boston next Friday. Winter cold and snow hype a proven crock of crap! AGW deniers proven a deluded pack of political dillitentes. Bastard(i), you're a laughing stock.

Saturday, December 15, 2012 at 12:57 PM

Mervyn Sullivan in Australia said:

Thankfully with so much debate now happening on the internet regarding climate change, it has become abundantly clear that the climate is most certainly influenced by many factors.

It is also clear that the IPCC's climate model-based scenarios/predictions are unreliable. It is also clear that the climate system is just so highly complex, scientists will never be able to fully understand exactly how the roles of all the mechanisms at play do actually influence climate. It is clear that when it comes to climate, 'the science is settled' mantra is blatantly infantile and ridiculous.

Accepting that the climate system is just too complex to simulate and predict unless and until we truly understand it fully, you'd think someone would instruct the IPCC to withdraw its assertion that carbon dioxide emitted from human activity is causing catastrophic warming and is the key driver of climate change. There is no justification by which the IPCC can make such a claim. Such a claim has never been scientifically proven and, at best, is just a bad guess.

What really is ridiculous is that the IPCC AR4 claimed that 97% of the carbon dioxide entering the atmosphere each year is from natural sources, and the remaining 3% is from all forms of human activity. This means that for every 10 giga-tonnes of carbon dioxide entering the atmosphere each year, 9.7 giga-tonnes is from natural sources and just 0.3 giga-tonnes is from various human activities.

Now think about it... are you prepared to be conned... that the human activity emitted carbon dioxide (the 3%) is so dangerous to the planet it must be heavily regulated, traded and taxed to save the planet... while the overwhelming source of carbon dioxide from natural sources is ok?

Common sense dictates that the carbon dioxide emitted from human activity is statistically insignificant and scientifically irrelevant, and it cannot be the key driver of climate change.

Monday, December 17, 2012 at 7:54 AM

JC Smith in Atlanta, GA said:

Joe: What is your forecast for the Arctic ice extent minimum for 2013?

Thanks....JC Smith

Thursday, December 27, 2012 at 7:24 AM