The Right Opinion

Global Warming: We Didn't Start the Fire

By Joe Bastardi · Jan. 9, 2013

In 2006 I caused quite a stir by saying that by 2015, at least two major hurricanes would strike the U.S. Coast from Cape Hatteras northward. This was viewed by many as sensationalism in the wake of the monster hurricane seasons of '04 and '05, when all I was doing was saying that the global weather pattern – a cooling Pacific and warm Atlantic – would produce a pattern like the 1950s in which major hurricanes ran the East Coast (the weather equal of the I-95 rush hour from DC to Boston).

The reasoning is based on research done by many others besides myself. I find it very interesting that with Hurricane Irene, and now Sandy, having hit the East Coast before 2015, I have not had any questions asked about that statement. Even more interesting is the fact that after being chastised about it, we now have people talking about the era of big storms that is coming. But they base it on Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW), not the simple fact that the same pattern that caused it before, is causing it again. Of course, it does not take a lot of grant money to come up with my conclusion – just a need to be able to compete in the private sector so you can give clients something of value that can help them. So my research is because I need to be paid for the product of my idea, not the idea itself.

And by the way, technically, I am not yet right! Neither Irene nor Sandy were major hurricanes and the worst is yet to come as far as intense hurricanes near the East Coast, because of the pattern we are in. It has nothing to do with what is being pushed on the AGW front.

In the wake of Sandy, I was on the O'Reilly Factor debating some of this with Dr. Brenda Ekwurzel from the Union of Concerned Scientists. Watch the video below:

Dr. Ekwurzel brought up sea level rise as a factor for fear of the future and, being I did not want to be distracted from my message, which is that the storms we are seeing now are what is to be expected from the natural cycle of the weather and climate we are in, I let it go. But the simple answer is if glaciers have once covered New York City (I would assume the sea level had to be lower then) and the Gulf of Mexico once covered all the way up to north of Memphis (one of the reasons that area of our country is so fertile) then a sea level rise of 8" in the past century is well within the realm of what can be expected naturally.

But the bigger problem lies with one-sided reporting. Take the assertion that 2012 was the hottest year ever in the US. There are challenges to that.

1.) So what? The rest of the globe was only .04C above normal and global temperatures are not rising as seen below (but CO2 is).

So why are they pushing an agenda for the entire globe based on evidence covering less than 3% of the earth? In fact, if the global temperature was only .04C above normal, it had to be as cold somewhere to counter the US warmth. It's funny how quickly the weather turned around the Holidays despite the warm start to winter, with a twice normal 67% of the nation covered with snow on New Years Day, and the most since 1989. (Wait 'till late January and February in the East, West and Plains sooner.) Given the warm start, no one made mention of how cold it's been in Alaska, or China. The cold coming into Russia as January wears on and then back into Europe again, will make news even with people trying to avoid reporting on it.

2.) If you used only the thermometer sites we used back in the 1930s, without all the extra new sites we did not have then, it's debatable as to whether it's the warmest on record. In other words, if you used only the stations we used in the hot years in the 30s, you may not have the same result . If you are so inclined, this report by Anthony Watts can explain the reason to be skeptical.

3.) Temperatures in the pre-satellite era (1978) are being adjusted down. I don't know what gives them the idea that a reading 50 years ago needs to be adjusted based on “discoveries” today, but they're now making measurements warmer. But all this is a moot point. What if it was a little warmer than the previous warmest year in less than 3% of the globe. So what? It's countered by cooling elsewhere, especially in the Tropical Pacific where the energy in tropical waters has much greater implications for future global temperatures than what we measure over the US.

And what about the sea ice? We have two ice caps, right? Apparently not, because you never hear about the southern one. Well, NASA says this year had the smallest Arctic sea ice in the satellite era.

Okay, but why is there no reporting that Antarctic sea ice was the HIGHEST ever in the satellite era? (By the way, it appears it is going to challenge the record for least melting. It's darn close right now as you can see in the graph.)

A couple of posts ago I pulled out a song by Bob Seger called “In Your Time” that referenced wild weather in a way to explain the huge variances that naturally occur in life. We are dealing with people today and a complicit press that simply refuse to look at the fact that there are two sides to this story. The simplest natural explanation can explain better what we observe today than trying to blame man for the evils of something he did not create, nor can control. So in the Spirit of Rock and Roll, which many of us true open minded people do believe is an Exercise in Freedom, perhaps this whole climate issue can be summed up with a verse, from the Book of Joel, in this case Billy: We Didn't Start the Fire.

When it comes to climate, The Long Island Poet Laureate (IMO) chorus sums it up for me:

We didn't start the fire
It was always burning
Since the world's been turning
We didn't start the fire
No we didn't light it
But we tried to fight it

Even in the Climate Wars, Rock and Roll can set you free.

Joe Bastardi is chief forecaster at WeatherBELL Analytics, a meteorological consulting firm.

© Copyright 2013 The Patriot Post

26 Comments

Tapdaddy in Indiana said:

"And what about the sea ice? We have two ice caps, right? Apparently not, because you never hear about the southern one. Well, NASA says this year had the smallest arctic sea ice in the satellite era."
When physical evidence doesn't support the desired results then just ignore the available evidence.

Wednesday, January 9, 2013 at 4:12 PM

BunnySlippers in Colorado said:

Thanks, Joe, for continuing to fight the good fight. It can be thankless, but a lot of people do appreciate those who take the arrrows from the junk science left.

Wednesday, January 9, 2013 at 6:02 PM

Common Sense in Boston said:

Talk to the folks in Australia right now who are RECALIBRATING their weather maps to accomodate insane 140 degree teperatures. Don't talk too much about that do ya Joe?? You say the Media selectively ignores cold anomalies, but that works both ways, right chum? It's the middle of winter and Boston has had 4" of snow so far. Basking in 50 degrees. Following the HOTTEST YEAR ON RECORD. Your obfuscation, disembling and outright misreputation/manipulation of facts and data, in a sad attempt to support an insane delusion of scientific denial, and a neurotic, obsessive need to be RIGHT is a clear and continuing sign to every meteorological professional and educated laymen of your sad dissassociation with reality and mental deterioration. You taunt and ridicule colleagues whose scientific data and analysis does not agree with your conjured theories, like an insecure fifth-grade bully, which matches the increasing Napoleonic-complexities of your bodybuilding-hypermasculine fantasies of superiority to overcompensate for what is clearly gender inadequacy. You are sad, sad example of fanaticism and egoism, and indeed an increasing threat to the very welfare of your (presumed) profession and the citizens it attempts to serve, not to mention your own mental well being. Please, get some therapy.

Wednesday, January 9, 2013 at 6:49 PM

Lyna in AL replied:

Take a deep breath, actually READ the article, and then check out the research cited in the article-- http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2009/05/surfacestationsreport_spring09.pdf --Read the whole thing, please.
Garbage in, garbage out. If the temperature records are faulty because of irregular reporting, instruments poorly located and maintained, and so forth, then we do not have accurate data to make meaningful decisions. What we have now is emotion and politics.

Wednesday, January 9, 2013 at 9:30 PM

billy396 in ohio replied:

Just because Joe uses objective facts and historic evidence, you don't have to get your panties in a bunch. When you drink the kool-aid, you must realize that there will be those who actually tell the truth, rather than agree with others who would love to rule the earth just because their Commie sympathies demand so. You'd be much better off if you checked the historical data. This planet has been through ice ages and very hot periods since the beginning of time. Do you blame global warming for the demise of the dinosaurs? I don't think there were too many people around at that time. Did cavemen cause the global warming that stopped the glaciers that carved out the Great Lakes? Didn't you read the article? They're changing historical data to fit their present story line. That should be a dead giveaway. This planet will continue to warm and cool as it sees fit and man can't change facts, just the perception of leftists everywhere.

Wednesday, January 9, 2013 at 9:49 PM

PA Meteo in State College replied:

Common Sense speaks the truth. Joe is, unfortunately, a laughingstock of the profession. A running joke, in baby oil and bikini briefs. That's why Accuweather canned him. Science is about facts, research, debate and responsible analysis. Religion, politics, polemics and grandstanding has no place is scientific discourse. Joe has no concept of that. And weather forecasting for private profit leads to corruption of the science. Which is why FOX is the only media outlet available to him.

Wednesday, January 9, 2013 at 11:03 PM

wjm in Colorado replied:

You are an indoctrinated fool, I bet you are parrotting the marxist statist party line of your professors. Or maybe you are one of the marxist faculty?

Thursday, January 10, 2013 at 10:55 AM

Robinius in Broomfield, Colorado replied:

PA Mateo in State College, Accuweather is global warming friendly as seen by programs like "Earth Friendly" and "Earth Matters." It is also "for profit," something I thought you libs abhorred as evidenced by your statement, "And weather forecasting for private profit leads to corruption of the science." They are based in State College, PA. Perhaps you are employed by them? You folks are always saying that it's about the science, but when the facts don't agree with your agenda you don't mind subverting them. You are duplicitous. Do you expect me to believe you didn't know Accuweather was for profit? I am not as stupid as you believe me to be hypocrite.

Thursday, January 10, 2013 at 10:03 PM

Trevor in Perth , Australia. replied:

"Common Sense in Boston"............ummm ! I wonder about that !

I don't know where you get the 60 degrees Celcius ( 140 fahrenheit ) from .
Perhaps from a hot-tin-roof somewhere BUT that is not the air temperature we are currently experiencing at all. In fact it isn't anywhere near that hot on the tennis-courts either !
Get your facts right or please cease posting your misinformation.

Thursday, January 10, 2013 at 1:56 AM

Capt. Call in New Mexico replied:

Your response is typical leftist distraction to avoid responsibility by blaming others for what you yourself are doing. YOU are the one who taunts and ridicules people of differing opinions. YOU are the one who lashes out like a fifth-grade bully. YOU are the one who resorts to epithets because you have no facts to support your opinions. YOU are in need of therapy, not Joe. Stop shouting your ignorance, and stop taking the liberal mind-dulling drug of "follow-the-(Obama)-leader."

Thursday, January 10, 2013 at 2:20 AM

wjm in Colorado replied:

I think you should change your handle to "Idiot in Boston", as you are incapable of clear thinking and factual analysis. Climate change is a fraud that you evidently have been suckered into, at your own peril.

Thursday, January 10, 2013 at 10:47 AM

ArmyofOne in MN replied:

Common Sense in Boston...Really is not very common in Boston! Is it? Take your own advice and seek treatment for mental instability immediately... you are about to implode!

Thursday, January 10, 2013 at 1:17 PM

HP in Kalispell, MT replied:

What are you, 12 years old? Keep drinking the Kool Aid. More taxpayer funding for all the less than brilliant science majors is on the way. Something as serious as GW needs barrels of money for grants, research, jobs for idiots, etc. I know disagreement isn't welcome by Al and the rest of you morons, but hang on OBS has your back!

Thursday, January 10, 2013 at 7:27 PM

Robinius in Broomfield, Colorado replied:

Common Sense, quite a rant. Perhaps you should know that this winter started on December 21, 2012. That would be 19 days ago. So you are saying winter will last 38 days this year? Great news! BTW the highest temperature in Australia in December 2012 was at Emu Creek (WA) at 47.3C (117.13F). This is a fact published by the Australian government that I found easily on the internet. Where is your documentation of 140F temperatures in Australia? Every sentence of your diatribe against Joe Bastardi could be turned against you and actually be true. Perhaps you should change your user name to "No Sense In Boston."

Thursday, January 10, 2013 at 9:37 PM

Fanakapan in Limeyland/Europe replied:

Sir, I know Americans have a reputation for an Incomplete grasp of Geography, but there's really no need for you to try and confirm peoples prejudices ??

Australia, gets Hotter'n hell, and Bush Fires are so common, that Many varieties of the fauna have evolved to cope with fire's, indeed some, even require fire as a part of their process of reproduction. Same goes for some of the Animal's out there, check out how the Echidna copes. Add to all of that the so called Green ideas of not clearing combustible materials, or even fining people who clear firebreaks around their homes, and you have all the elements for what we have seen lately, no need for so called Warming to be the cause.

A while back the Warming crowd were using the low levels of the Murray Darling Basin as their 'Tattered Flag' I have not heard too much about that of late, and I'm guessing that the almost Biblical amounts of rain they've had over the last couple of years has maybe filled it up again ??

Sunday, January 13, 2013 at 1:56 AM

Lillian in Dallas said:

What's happening RIGHT NOW to people in Australia is horrible, tragic, unprecedented and frightening. Now to mention the pain and suffering of U.S. farmers and their crops of this past scorching summer. Yet Joe is tweeting he is "praying" for the people of SIBERIA because some model predicts in a week or so it's going to be cold. Unbelievable! And he purports to be a man of God. Shame.

Wednesday, January 9, 2013 at 11:18 PM

Trevor in Perth , Australia. replied:

What are you on about Lillian ?
There are the usual summer bush-fires occuring during the usual summer heatwave. That is all. (unfortunately some of the fires have been deliberately lit.......but that has always been the case. Most occur after lightning-strike during summer storms .......that's right ! We often get rain in summer ! )
The so-called disasters in Tasmania are a result of "Green-policy" where inadequate control of vegetation (trees along roads and overhanging houses etc unable to be removed due to idealistic greenie legislation) and preventive burning has provided a massive build-up of fuel.
Tasmania , under greenie influence has suppressed industry and development and has literally been turned into a 'national park' with little or no finances ( or desire , it seems ) to correct the situation. Tasmania has become dependent on the rest of Australia for a financial 'hand-out' just to exist !
In effect , the bush-fires are the result of bad policy and were thoroughly predictable and could well have been prevented had wiser counsel prevailed.
It may seem hard-hearted but in life you tend to reap what you sow !

Thursday, January 10, 2013 at 1:48 AM

Robinius in Broomfield, Colorado replied:

Trevor, I wonder about some of these comments about the weather in Australia this year. The thing that seems obvious to me is that some of my countrymen who have commented may not realize that the seasons are inverted between the northern and southern hemispheres. They are supporters of "science," though, so I may be wrong.

Thursday, January 10, 2013 at 10:13 PM

Pauly in Philly said:

Yo! Where's da SNOW, Big Joe??? "December to remember"??? Freakin joke!

Wednesday, January 9, 2013 at 11:30 PM

Capt. Call in New Mexico replied:

You obviously either didn't read the article, or learned nothing from it.

Thursday, January 10, 2013 at 2:23 AM

wjm in Colorado replied:

Pauly, you are indeed, a JOKE!

Thursday, January 10, 2013 at 10:56 AM

Billy fisc in Deptford, nj said:

Joe is right as usual. Junk science from the left is used to convince that global warming is real caused my man made pollution and ozone holes, and fluorocarbons, and Santa Claus, and the Easter Bunny.

Thursday, January 10, 2013 at 11:19 AM

Semi Demi in Al said:

We are yet to have a balanced discussion on global warming. What bothers me most is all of the Warmers are trying to garner political power or profit from climate change. Just seems sketchy!

Thursday, January 10, 2013 at 4:56 PM

M Rick Timms MD in Georgia replied:

Like so many of our problems today the GW debate is tarnished by the fact that all the money - tax money - is in Washington, and they use it to generate the storyline that suits the agenda.

Thank God for some independent thinking climatologists willing to look at facts from a truly scientific perspective that is always open to new insight and data -- unlike the Globing Warming claims of "settled science". Bull.

Thanks Joe - keep up the good work.

Friday, January 11, 2013 at 1:42 AM

Mervyn in Australia said:

Billy Joel would have had no idea that decades after penning his hit "We Didin't Start the Fire" the words of the chorus would have such relevance today regarding the global warming controversy! And how so true those chorus words are!

Saturday, January 12, 2013 at 8:12 AM

Robert in Lawrenceville, Georgia said:

I can not believe that the so called educated/brainwashed can not see that weather patterns repeat themselves when the temperature of the oceans change and have a direct effect.

The lefts agenda is government control.

Wednesday, January 23, 2013 at 3:08 AM