January 30, 2014

Left Turn in the Emerging Markets

There’s a new cynical perception among international investors that Brazil is becoming Argentina, and Argentina is becoming Venezuela. But these investors are starting to boycott all the so-called emerging markets, since nearly all of them are moving to the left, abandoning free-market principles, reverting to the bad old days of higher spending and taxing, inflating the money supply, accumulating large trade deficits and letting their currencies go to hell in a hand basket. In other words, the emerging-market investment paradigm, or the BRIC model, may be over.

There’s a new cynical perception among international investors that Brazil is becoming Argentina, and Argentina is becoming Venezuela. But these investors are starting to boycott all the so-called emerging markets, since nearly all of them are moving to the left, abandoning free-market principles, reverting to the bad old days of higher spending and taxing, inflating the money supply, accumulating large trade deficits and letting their currencies go to hell in a hand basket.

In other words, the emerging-market investment paradigm, or the BRIC model, may be over.

Toward the end of last week, the U.S. stock market sold off nearly 500 points. Much of the blame has been placed on the collapse of the emerging-market currencies. Correct. The emerging-market tail was wagging the U.S. stock market dog.

We all know the Fed is playing a role in this as it tapers its bond purchases and injects less new cash into the economy. In recent years, some of that Fed-created excess liquidity has gone into emerging-market investments. But now, as the Fed begins to wind down, it’s as if the tide is going out to sea and revealing all the countries that left their bathing suits behind.

In other words, the left turn of many emerging-market nations is now naked for all to see. High inflation, crashing currencies, trade protectionism and economic redistribution are not the policies that grew these economies over the years and attracted investment. (South Korea, by the way, is a notable exception.)

You can go down the list. Argentina is on the verge of collapse under the left-wing populism of the Kirchner regime. Travelling leftward from Lula to Rousseff, Brazil has built a huge current-account deficit while pulling back on free trade. In India, free-market policies have stalled, and if the Gandhis return to power, so will their socialist approach. And for various political and cultural reasons, the Erdogan government in Turkey has been moving hard to the left, all while the Turkish economy deteriorates. Turkey’s central bank may defend the lira with higher interest rates, but that tightening will worsen the economy and the political situation.

China, it’s important to note, has a different problem than these other emerging markets. The Peoples Bank of China is cutting back on liquidity and credit in the so-called shadow banking system. And while the Chinese economy is not plunging into recession, its growth has dropped from 12 to 7 percent. China’s slowdown remains a threat to the U.S. as well as the other emerging markets.

Fortunately, Europe’s economy is beginning to look better around the edges. So is Japan’s, following that nation’s massive monetary pump priming. And while some may disagree, the U.S. economy looks to be getting better, despite tax hikes, Obamacare and new regulations.

But the biggest challenge of our time is not income inequality or taxing the rich. It’s economic growth for the long run. Looking globally, the challenge is maintaining the liberal economic order, with free markets and free trade at the center.

But now we’re seeing developing countries such as India, Brazil, Argentina and Turkey move away from free markets and free trade, and from the very principles that attracted capital, ignited their growth and stabilized their currencies.

In the last couple of decades, hundreds of millions of the ultra-poor were lifted into the middle class as developing nations around the world moved towards free-market capitalism. But right now I must warn investors: Stay out of the emerging markets. They’re going the wrong way.

COPYRIGHT 2014 CREATORS.COM

Who We Are

The Patriot Post is a highly acclaimed weekday digest of news analysis, policy and opinion written from the heartland — as opposed to the MSM’s ubiquitous Beltway echo chambers — for grassroots leaders nationwide. More

What We Offer

On the Web

We provide solid conservative perspective on the most important issues, including analysis, opinion columns, headline summaries, memes, cartoons and much more.

Via Email

Choose our full-length Digest or our quick-reading Snapshot for a summary of important news. We also offer Cartoons & Memes on Monday and Alexander’s column on Wednesday.

Our Mission

The Patriot Post is steadfast in our mission to extend the endowment of Liberty to the next generation by advocating for individual rights and responsibilities, supporting the restoration of constitutional limits on government and the judiciary, and promoting free enterprise, national defense and traditional American values. We are a rock-solid conservative touchstone for the expanding ranks of grassroots Americans Patriots from all walks of life. Our mission and operation budgets are not financed by any political or special interest groups, and to protect our editorial integrity, we accept no advertising. We are sustained solely by you. Please support The Patriot Fund today!


The Patriot Post and Patriot Foundation Trust, in keeping with our Military Mission of Service to our uniformed service members and veterans, are proud to support and promote the National Medal of Honor Heritage Center, the Congressional Medal of Honor Society, both the Honoring the Sacrifice and Warrior Freedom Service Dogs aiding wounded veterans, the National Veterans Entrepreneurship Program, the Folds of Honor outreach, and Officer Christian Fellowship, the Air University Foundation, and Naval War College Foundation, and the Naval Aviation Museum Foundation. "Greater love has no one than this, to lay down one's life for his friends." (John 15:13)

★ PUBLIUS ★

“Our cause is noble; it is the cause of mankind!” —George Washington

Please join us in prayer for our nation — that righteous leaders would rise and prevail and we would be united as Americans. Pray also for the protection of our Military Patriots, Veterans, First Responders, and their families. Please lift up your Patriot team and our mission to support and defend our Republic's Founding Principle of Liberty, that the fires of freedom would be ignited in the hearts and minds of our countrymen.

The Patriot Post is protected speech, as enumerated in the First Amendment and enforced by the Second Amendment of the Constitution of the United States of America, in accordance with the endowed and unalienable Rights of All Mankind.

Copyright © 2024 The Patriot Post. All Rights Reserved.

The Patriot Post does not support Internet Explorer. We recommend installing the latest version of Microsoft Edge, Mozilla Firefox, or Google Chrome.