A Crisis of Cold
I have stated often that knowing climate is huge in being able to accurately forecast the weather. I want to show an example.
Back in the spring of 2008 I got a chance to talk to a science class at my old high school, Mainland Regional, in Linwood, New Jersey. One of my dearest friends had a son that was interested in weather, so we were very close. His other son is now a budding TV journalist in Little Rock, Arkansas (perhaps I will get a chance to do a global warming interview with him if I play my cards right). I jumped at the chance to talk to them. It was kind of funny because one of the teachers was the captain of my high school’s cheerleading team when I was a 5' 2", 160 lb. freshman weather geek and my crushes at the time alternated between the captain and her sister. But she was in the audience and I guess she probably thought,“Wow, this guy is still a weather geek” – or perhaps not since she probably was not aware I was alive when I was a freshman in high school.
That was when I first introduced the theory of why the winters of ‘12-'13, '13-'14, and '14-'15 could be very harsh. Basically I expected La Ninas to dominate because I knew the PDO (Pacific Decadol Oscillation) was going into its cold phase, and any “bounceback” with an El Nino with the Pacific in its cold phase usually means severe winters in the US. It was a matter of not buying into the idea of CO2-induced El Ninos and so called “Super Ninos” occurring year after year (they cause a spike in global temperatures, once again an admission that a natural event is in control of the the planet’s temperature), but rather understanding where we were in the natural cycle and where we were going.
By 2011 I had taken a public stand, and below is an example of what was written about it. I always advise people to read the whole article.
“A combination of factors that parallel the precursors to historically cold winters is leading Bastardi to this forecast.
He said, "We have a cold Pacific now. We had a La Nina, El Nino, then a stronger La Nina [similar to the cycle] that happened in the early to mid '70s that set up the winters of the late '70s.”
These weather patterns, plus the wild cards of volcanic activity and solar activity, have Bastardi looking ahead.
“The last time we had arctic volcanoes go off, in 1912 – similar to what we had two winters ago – the winters three years removed got very bad across the United States,” Bastardi said.
“If we put together the combination of La Nina, El Nino, La Nina again and we look at what happened when that happened before with a cold Pacific, and we also understand that the volcanoes may be involved along with the low sunspot activity, one could come to the conclusion that a series of very cold winters … could be on the way,” he said. Bastardi said this is all part of a natural pattern of reversal which he believes will lead to a crash in global temperatures over the next nine months, from the very warm levels set off by El Nino – as forecast globally by AccuWeather.com.
In the longer term, this is all part of a cyclical event which Bastardi believes will return the earth’s temperatures by 2030 back to where they were in the late '70s at the end of the last cold PDO [Pacific Decadal Oscillation or El Nino like pattern] and the beginning of the satellite era of measuring temperatures objectively.“
Notice what is going on here. Sure, it’s a lot of mumbo jumbo to the average person, but it’s obvious that the reasons for me believing these winters could be severe was based on a calculated reconstruction of past natural events that tipped me off to this possibility.
Now this is an important point: I am not saying, "See, I am right.” I am saying, “See, I did the work to give me a chance to have an edge,” but It was based on research and the proper use of climate – not as an agenda but as a needed building block for the product that I need to bring value to the consumer to get paid.“
And unlike some of the so-called forecasts from people that look down the road a hundred years with no chance of being held accountable, this was only a few years away.
So again, my knowledge of climate is as needed for me in my forecasting as air, water and food are for me to live. I have always looked at it that way.
We did get off to a slow start last year, but I think you will agree that mid and later winter into spring made up for it. And I don’t need to hype this winter – you have seen our forecast and the result. The AGW crowd is screaming with delight about the likelihood of 2014 being warm as they always do when an El Nino is coming on – which I think it is – because they know it will "spike” the global temps and they can use that as evidence of man-made global warming. What they won’t tell you is that because we are in the cold version of the Pacific cycle overall, what will follow is a bigger fall. That is what has been going on since this started, as seen here:
Notice the “spike” in the '07 El Nino, then the fall after; the spike in the '09-'10 El Nino, the fall after. The overall trend though is unmistakably down. But another round of heat hysteria is certainly on the way. Problem is, as I said, it will mean a cold winter for the US for one, and a bigger drop after. But how much you want to bet the cold winter next year will be twisted into something it’s not (caused by CO2)? Do you think any of them will possibly acknowledge what global temperatures will do after the spike? They don’t even want anyone to look at this now.
Now contrast that idea and the actual temperatures to the modeling the EPA is using as one of their three lines of evidence for their endangerment findings, giving them free reign to do what they are doing. From Dr. John Christy. University of Alabama, Huntsville:
Here is the fact: Again, I am not arrogant enough to claim a perfect forecast, but I am sure a heck of a lot closer than what is one of the so called “settled science” claims. You don’t have to believe my forecasts, but why would you believe the others which are visibly in error?
Now here is what is scary to me. In talking to people in the energy industry, 89% of coal fired plants that are operating now by supplying electricity will be forced off line on Jan. 1, 2015 by EPA regulations. I want you to imagine what this winter’s energy situation would be like without those plants operating. Two weeks ago, I said the pattern between Jan. 20-Feb. 5 would be a “crisis of cold.” While we see a brief break in the East this weekend, we believe a cold stormy February is on the way for the nation.
So this idea, based on actual climate trends and past patterns, continues. Now I want to ask you: What are we going to do next year if my idea above is right?
And ask yourself this: If CO2 is causing these extremes in weather, how come we never see people factoring it into a forecast, coming out before hand saying CO2 will cause this event or that event when the event is about to occur? Instead it’s wait till its over, and then blame it on man-made global warming. Who the heck would actually believe such a thing?
If what I said a few years ago holds, with those sources for energy off line, next winter would make the term “crisis of cold” an understatement.
Joe Bastardi is chief forecaster at WeatherBELL Analytics, a meteorological consulting firm.
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