Obama's Next Act

· Friday, July 16, 2010

WASHINGTON -- In the political marketplace, there's now a run on Obama shares. The left is disappointed with the president. Independents are abandoning him in droves. And the right is already dancing on his political grave, salivating about November when, his own press secretary admitted Sunday, Democrats might lose the House.

I have a warning for Republicans: Don't underestimate Barack Obama.

Consider what he has already achieved. Obamacare alone makes his presidency historic. It has irrevocably changed one-sixth of the economy, put the country inexorably on the road to national health care and, as acknowledged by Senate Finance Committee Chairman Max Baucus but few others, begun one of the most massive wealth redistributions in U.S. history.

Second, there is major financial reform, which passed Congress on Thursday. Economists argue whether it will prevent meltdowns and bailouts as promised. But there is no argument that it will give the government unprecedented power in the financial marketplace. Its 2,300 pages will create at least 243 new regulations that will affect not only, as many assume, the big banks but just about everyone including, as noted in one summary (The Wall Street Journal), "storefront check cashiers, city governments, small manufacturers, homebuyers and credit bureaus."

Third is the near $1 trillion stimulus, the largest spending bill in U.S. history. And that's not even counting nationalizing the student loan program, regulating carbon emissions by EPA fiat, and still-fitful attempts to pass cap-and-trade through Congress.

But Obama's most far-reaching accomplishment is his structural alteration of the U.S. budget. The stimulus, the vast expansion of domestic spending, the creation of ruinous deficits as far as the eye can see are not easily reversed.

These are not mere temporary countercyclical measures. They are structural deficits because, as everyone from Obama on down admits, the real money is in entitlements, most specifically Medicare and Medicaid. But Obamacare freezes these out as a source of debt reduction. Obamacare's $500 billion in Medicare cuts and $600 billion in tax increases are siphoned away for a new entitlement -- and no longer available for deficit reduction.

The result? There just isn't enough to cut elsewhere to prevent national insolvency. That will require massive tax increases -- most likely a European-style value-added tax. Just as President Reagan cut taxes to starve the federal government and prevent massive growth in spending, Obama's wild spending -- and quarantining health-care costs from providing possible relief -- will necessitate huge tax increases.

The net effect of 18 months of Obamaism will be to undo much of Reaganism. Both presidencies were highly ideological, grandly ambitious and often underappreciated by their own side. In his early years, Reagan was bitterly attacked from his right. (Typical Washington Post headline: "For Reagan and the New Right, the Honeymoon Is Over" -- and that was six months into his presidency!) Obama is attacked from his left for insufficient zeal on gay rights, immigration reform, closing Guantanamo -- the list is long. The critics don't understand the big picture. Obama's transformational agenda is a play in two acts.

Act One is over. The stimulus, Obamacare, financial reform have exhausted his first-term mandate. It will bear no more heavy lifting. And the Democrats will pay the price for ideological overreaching by losing one or both houses, whether de facto or de jure. The rest of the first term will be spent consolidating these gains (writing the regulations, for example) and preparing for Act Two.

The next burst of ideological energy -- massive regulation of the energy economy, federalizing higher education and "comprehensive" immigration reform (i.e., amnesty) -- will require a second mandate, meaning re-election in 2012.

That's why there's so much tension between Obama and the congressional Democrats. For Obama, 2010 matters little. If Democrats lose control of one or both houses, Obama will likely have an easier time in 2012, just as Bill Clinton used Newt Gingrich and the Republicans as his foil for his 1996 re-election campaign.

Obama is down, but it's very early in the play. Like Reagan, he came here to do things. And he's done much in his first 500 days. What he has left to do he knows must await his next 500 days -- those that come after re-election.

2012 is the real prize. Obama sees far, farther than even his own partisans. Republicans underestimate him at their peril.

(c) 2010, The Washington Post Writers Group


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Comments

Sheldon

Amen. This is something about which I have been trying to convince my fellow conservatives. A win in November by the Republicans will only lay the groundwork for Obama to continue to shift the blame for any of our nation's woes back onto the Republicans, just as Clinton did in '96. I have a feeling we may not be so jubilant come 2012. By then, if Obama is re-elected, it will be too late for this great country. Freedom as we know it (we'll all be paying far too much in taxes to truly be free) will be gone.

Posted July 16, 2010 at 4:49:53 AM


veritaseequitas

Oh...if.

Then it is up to Conservatives, Republicans and Independents to make sure that BO does not get re-elected in 2012. We have to quit being nice, we have to fight the dirty fight.

It is too bad that BO did not get his agenda passed by legitimate means. He has had to bribe, bully and twist arms to get these things passed, against the will of the American people I might add. This fact makes him nothing more than a street punk, a school yard bully, a moronic "gangsta." America is too great a country to be bested by the likes of him.

Posted July 16, 2010 at 5:59:55 AM


Gloria

I see our country crumbling before our eyes, Our president is obviously not for the people. He is for the destruction of a country that he does not like. If he serves another term, the united states will never recover to the state of freedomes this country were founded on. People need to wake up and soon, it's no longer what we want, it's what he want's and he can certainly buy people in high places to help him do the job. I cry for what our country is becoming because of him.

Posted July 16, 2010 at 6:23:33 AM


Sophie

If "our" president doesn't care about his own party and cares even less about the other party, then it's painfully obvious that he only cares about his ideology. We all know what that ideology is, now don't we?

He cut his political teeth on Saul Alinsky's "Rules for Radicals."

Be prepared for the great awakening. In 2008 the "independents" were looking for change? Well they got change, and it isn't going to be pretty.

Posted July 16, 2010 at 7:05:11 AM


DSS

I don't like a thing you wrote in the piece because you are exactly right. The unraveling of the destruction created by liberals is a most difficult task indeed. We must begin that task with the mid-term elections, but the bigger task is keeping to a conservative direction beginning in 2012 if we succeed in 2010.

Posted July 16, 2010 at 9:44:11 AM


kevin

A big difference is that Clinton was able and basically willing to move to the center - even signing 'historic' welfare reform.

Obama is unwilling, and probably unable to move to the center - he's already proven that. He will spend 2011 & 2012 vetoing Republican bills to undo 2009 & 2010 - putting further at odds from the majority of American's - putting him out of a job come 2012.

Posted July 16, 2010 at 11:37:38 AM


Ed

I read a book about Obama several years ago. It was entitled, "The Man Who Wanted To Be King." It won't be long before the Congress and Senate have bowed to their new King, and presented him their powers as his Coronation gifts.

Posted July 16, 2010 at 12:59:56 PM


TJS

Call out the socialist fools. They are clearly incompetent and crazy. They are committing political suicide for the sake of establishing more socialism. Give them the political death penalty.

Everything 0bama has done must be repealed and replaced.

1. Stimulus - worthless, harmful. Stop it immediately.

2. Reduce federal spending back to Clinton levels, about 18% of GDP.

3. Health care - repeal entirely. Replace with a bill full of actual cost reductions. Reduce medical costs in America by at least 30% through HSA's and creating and actual market, with prices and customers who care about costs.

4. FinReg - repeal entirely. Replace with a revamp of the 7 layers of dozing Federal agencies which created the problem. Break up the big banks and financial houses. Make it so failure means the death of the failed, not rescue.

Write retirement legislation which creates private accounts aimed at making all full-time, lifelong workers milllionaires at retirement. Most could easily achieve it with just half the 15.2% of income the Feds now confiscate.

This is an age of unpredented prosperity. In the last century America median income rose by a factor of eight. The next century should be much better. Socialism and communism were thoroughly road tested in the 20th century and failed. Time to move on to freedom.

Posted July 16, 2010 at 1:26:07 PM


frank E.

07/26/10

The only good thing about the half-breed who

would be"KING" will leave his throne a LAME-DUCK

HALF BREED.

Posted July 16, 2010 at 9:15:48 PM


Sam

I agree with Dr. Krauthammer, and I am very much afraid that Obama might win reelection. For the record, I have been called many names, most of which are unprintable, but short-sighted has not been one of them.

Posted July 16, 2010 at 9:28:35 PM


Sam Hill

What nobody's recognized, so far I think, is that he is our first affirmative-action president, i.e., he was elected because of his race and in spite of his demonstrable lack of qualification for the office, beating a white guy who was obviously more qualified.

Posted July 16, 2010 at 10:33:24 PM


Jon C Savage

Dr.Krauthammer, in my view, is absolutely accurate in his assesments. It is terrifying! And foretelling. Nearly forty years participating in the defense, fighting the wars, of this Republic. Now to see the victory lost---as was predicted! The foes, foreign and domestic---it was the domestic foes that won the battle, and Liberty, and this Republic, for now, at least, are lost. "Hand me mah rifle, Ma!"

Posted July 17, 2010 at 10:05:53 PM


Jennifer Holzapfel

I have been saying for some time that Obama will not be leaving the oval office even if he is not re-elected. There are many dictators who have sham elections, and he is not above doing the same.

Posted July 17, 2010 at 11:09:56 PM


ObserverOnTheHill

anyone who thinks any Democrat is out is not aware that the Diebold electronic voting machine being used many places today has been hacked to allow pre-chosen victor as shown here -

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cy1IlAXeV30

Posted July 18, 2010 at 10:52:14 AM


Paul Matthews

I very much agree with Mr. Krauthammer, BO is a very savy politician and it appears that he will soon have the 60 votes in the senate that he wants so that he can push more of his agenda down our throats, but what did you expect he is the enemy? When are we conservatives going to stop nominating candidates who are willing to compromise away our values. John McCain and Mitt Romney can't beat BO because when it comes to the choice between a left wing Communist and a candidate who tries to look a little more liberal for the sake of getting a few votes; come election day voters will go for the real deal (at least he's a real communist and not trying to look like something he's not; some conservative republicans will vote for the RINO (actually just voting against BO and most independants and Tea Partiers will just stay home since they have no-one in the race. You can see this one coming 2 1/2 years away. Who has the courage to take the bull by horns and the coallition of the Tea Partiers, the Independents and the diappointed real Republicans and restore this country to it's true greatness

Posted July 18, 2010 at 6:41:14 PM


Howard

Booting Obama is just part of the solution. We need to hit the 'reset button' with a Constitutional Convention to enact the Bill or Federalism or something very much like it. Otherwise, we will simply continue this dreary cycle.

Posted July 19, 2010 at 11:25:08 AM


der schuh

the republican party would do well to listen to Dr Krauthammer, he has great insight and common sense that this country needs. in my opinion obama will be reelected in 2012 by stealing the election, or will take over by marshall law due to the crisis stage and race confrontations that he is initiating. his theme is divide and conquer and he is doing it masterfully while our great elected girlie-man republicans sit idly by and watch it happen. this is classic presidential abuse of power in action. we are reaping what we have sown.

Posted July 19, 2010 at 11:44:38 AM


Anna Gandee

I too have been telling everyone i know that Obama is counting on winning in 2012, i'll even say that he is sure of his victory.

I like what you have to say and how you say what you feel right down to the phrases you use to describe mr. obama. I trust your judgement and your outlook on current political affairs.

Please continue educating America on the misbegotten agenda of this administation. i await your views on just who would be a good candidate for 2012.

Posted July 19, 2010 at 12:41:37 PM


Phil Chapman

If Republicans take back the House in November, they can deny funding to all Obama's destructive initiatives. This could stop the rot but it would mean gridlock until 2012. Obama will then blame Republicans for every conceivable problem, saying that his schemes would have brought paradise on Earth without callous right-wing obstructionism -- and this message might get him re-elected.

What the Republicans MUST do in 2011-12 is to pass bill after bill (at least in the House and hopefully in the Senate) repealing Obamacare and all the rest, and also dismantling every unconstitutional law of the past 75 years (i.e., since FDR). The Dems will defeat these measures in the Senate, if they can, or Obama will veto them -- but a vigorous effort to pass such bills will reveal Obama as the obstructionist, and allow Republicans to preview what they will do if given the power.

This is the way to rake the White House and the Congress in 2012.

Posted July 19, 2010 at 5:24:26 PM


Jim Helwig

The real question in 2012 is who, exactly will the Republicans run? I kept waiting for John McCain to take the gloves off and fly into this sham (Obama) and show him for what he really is. This never happened, and we all know what the result was. I, for one, would like to see whomever the Republican's run not be so worried about "perceptions" and un-written rules of running for office. Take the gloves off, present a meaningful platform, be a "man" (sorry Sarah, you aren't ready yet). Although Newt has some baggage, I'm beginning to think that he just might be the guy to show OB up for what he really is. I supported Mitt for the nomination in the last election, but I'm wavering on that now.

Posted July 19, 2010 at 10:31:24 PM


Michael Eyles

I agree with what Dr. Krauthammer and others are saying. One of the big problems is the national press tailoring the news to fit O's agenda. Many millions of Americans trust them totally. We need more conservative venues to speak and write the truth.

Posted July 20, 2010 at 12:36:31 AM


Garry Newby

His reckless spending, his contempt for the Constitution, and his arrogance to the people, his Communist policies just to name a few. 20 million illegals and 30 million new government welfare dependence add some voter fraud to that and a few threatening goons with clubs at the polls. I don't think the voting booth will put this nation back to Constitutional rule. More like using our rights and doing our duty found in the Declaration of Independence.

Posted August 8, 2010 at 11:57:54 AM


dan ehrlich

I have no problem with a national health service...that's essentially what I get with the VA. And havinbg lived for years in the UK, I think its all great.

But BO will be beatable in 2012 if the GOP can produce and intelligent and charismatic candidate..that's the real challenge...read

www.hard-truths.blogspot.com

Posted September 9, 2010 at 2:29:31 AM


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