A Good Debt-Ceiling Deal

· Tuesday, July 19, 2011

As uncertain and unruly and disheveled as the debt-ceiling debate may be, there are still good grounds to reach a deal. It could help the economy. It could keep the policy ball moving in the direction of smaller government. It could add a key business tax incentive for economic growth. And it could even stabilize the dollar.

There really are two problems here: First is raising the debt ceiling to avoid default. (That's a real good idea.) Second is stuffing enough spending and deficit reduction into the deal to accommodate the newly militant demands of S&P and Moody's, which want roughly $4 trillion in cuts over 10 years in order to keep our AAA rating.

But here's the tricky part for me: What kind of numbers are we talking about in the event of a last-minute deal? So many of these numbers are phony, and they often reflect baseline fiddling and out-year budget cuts that never materialize.

But the credit raters are on the warpath. The small deal offered by Sen. Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., would raise the debt ceiling in three parts. But with only $1 trillion in so-called cuts, this "Plan B" won't pass the S&P/Moody's test. The number is too small.

Then there's the grand design for President Obama's big-picture deal. It is over $4 trillion, but it includes taxes that look to be off the table from the Republican standpoint.

But this has me thinking. Assuming there are real spending cuts in the Obama package, I wonder if it's possible to insert a business tax cut in the deal that would repatriate foreign earnings of U.S. companies. Let's say with a 5 percent tax holiday. And let's say it's a two- to three-year plan, or lasts until full-fledged business tax reform can come about. That would be a big plus for growth and jobs. We're talking a base here of nearly $2 trillion in corporate cash that one way or another can come into our economy.

Next up is cut, cap and balance. Did Obama budget director Jack Lew open the door to this Republican House plan during the Sunday shows? This is my preferred option right now. The burden of government on the economy would be reduced from roughly 24 percent to 20 percent. That narrows the wedge between work and reward. It strengthens private market resources by curbing government redistribution. This is probably the biggest philosophical sticking point in the whole political debate. Of course, I'm for free-market capitalism.

But here too I'm not sure about the numbers. Various news accounts talk about a $2.4 trillion debt-ceiling increase with an equal spending cut. I presume that's a 10-year number on the spending side. But that wouldn't pass the S&P/Moody's test of $4 trillion.

Other accounts of cut, cap and balance use the Paul Ryan fiscal-year 2012 spending cut of $110 billion. That would be a home run. It would come to $5.8 trillion over 10 years and would certainly satisfy the credit-rating agencies. In other words, the GOP House plan is far better from a rating-agency standpoint than any other plan out there -- that is, if the Ryan numbers are actually part of the plan. But we don't know the numerical details yet. That's a problem.

We've learned from the cash-flow analysis of Treasury revenues and government spending that there just has to be a debt increase. As many have already written, the Jay Powell bipartisan policy analysis shows that you can cover the interest on Treasury debt along with Social Security and health entitlements. You could pay the Defense Department vendor bills. You could keep unemployment insurance benefits. But you'd still be $134 billion short for the rest of the August budget.

The U.S government has $172 billion of revenues coming in that month. But prior budgets have obligated $306 billion of spending. So you're looking at a 44 percent budget cut. Maybe a good idea, but not realistic in one month. It's just too big a shock to the system. And according to the Powell analysis, you couldn't pay active duty military, veterans or the FBI, to name just a few.

So the revenue-allocation view of not raising the debt ceiling really doesn't hold any practical water. Why some of my conservative friends keeps pushing this is beyond me.

So is a deal possible? I still think it is. The high end of the budget cuts from the White House and the House GOP possibly could be coupled with a tax deal on repatriation and even future tax reform. After all, economic-growth measures should be crucial in this sputtering economy.

Reducing the corporate-tax wedge and reducing the budget-spending wedge, to quote my friend Arthur Laffer, would provide a tonic for the economy. In other words, a debt deal can still work and promote growth.

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Comments

COS911

There is an easy starting point--take the 2008 Federal Budget, before all the Keynsian excess for the recent recession (which did nothing anyway), and make that the baseline. The 2012 Budget should not exceed that number. Since then the Feds have said that there hasn't been any inflation (as indicated by the lack of Social Security CPI adjustments), then the Federal budget shouldn't be any higher either. Then start cutting. Any program that wasn't in existance in 2009 should be easy to eliminate--we didn't need it then, and we don't need it now. Follow that with elimination of all direct subsidy payments to any industry or agriculture group; it's time they all stand on their own. Then take the entire tax code, through it out and put the whole thing in 10 pages or less. That should be more than sufficient and can be revenue nuetral. Any tax code longer than 10 pages is simply a subsidy to lawyers and accountants and needs to end also.

Posted July 19, 2011 at 11:31:09 AM


Marcus

if i went to my banker, and told him i needed to borrow more money or i will default, and the reason i told him i couldn't pay my mortgage or whatever was due to my contributions to church and charity were so high and that I MUST continue paying to these charities due to my ideals, i feel certain that he would deny me a credit extension.

why should we the people allow more credit extensions(debt ceiling increase) because the government operators want to continue to give out entitlements(charity)?

well maybe they don't want to keep giving out entitlements but they feel they have to due to attitudes/expectations of the citizens, so whose really responsible?

the government operators are, because they accepted the responsibility of leadership when they accepted nomination and won election.

shame on them for being wussies and being too afraid to tell citizens to use their God-given brains to understand there is not enough money left to give to the social security charity or any of the others, nor is it right to go steal more (taxes and inflation).

this fight isn't about rich and poor as the democrats try to make you believe, but it is between the private earners/taxpayers and the entitlement recipients(includes government workers high pay and bennies, and their unions) who won't relent on relenquishing their handouts(see Wisconsin).

if the leaders won't take the lead and fix this(except ones like Gov. Walker), then some sort of BIG ugliness is in our future as this situation is intractable in its present state.

taking the steps to bring everything back into balance will be a series of small uglies. all we taxpayers want to see is that these steps are being taken.

Posted July 19, 2011 at 12:18:49 PM


Ken in Tyler

The only "good" debt ceiling would be ZERO!

Anyone who truly loves God-given Liberty abhors debt for it makes one a slave to the lender.

Having said that, I confess the reality that it took us a hundred-odd years of fiscal stupidity to arrive where we are. It will take many years to undo our calamity though we should begin the process immediately by refusing to increase the debt limit. period.

Posted July 19, 2011 at 12:32:36 PM


Gelio

$4 trillion in cuts over 10 years is nothing when you are expected to spend $45 trillion in that same time period. Plus, the cuts are smoke and mirror cuts. It is like you saying that you intend to keep buying more eggs, but just not as many as you would have. That is how Washington calculates a cut. They need to pass a balanced budget amendment (Which they do not need Obama's signature to send off to teh states), stop over regulating, stop the everyone needs a house crap, as they will just collapse the economy further, cut taxes (flat tax would be best, but I am not totally delusional) close the loopholes, so comapnies who had zero tax obligation (see GE) will actually pay tax, privatize social security (see Chile's model), term limits on Congress of one terms limited to 6 years and no benefits, no private planes, no paid cell service, and slash Congressional/Presidential pay/staff by 20% (they should be working for free until the country returns to profitibility, if my mayor Bing of Detroit and Governor Snyder of Michigan can work for free for that reason then Congress and the president can too).

Posted July 19, 2011 at 12:52:55 PM


Bill

Let's start with the 2008 budget (suggested above) as the baseline amount to spend in F/Y 12. During the year, look at all the waste, duplication, fraud and non-performing programs and cut another 10% for F/Y 13.

Any program that is funded should have a designated sunset, 3, 5 or 7 years. If it doesn't meet the objectives when established, it goes away.

We have been fighting the war on poverty for 45 years and there are as many people living in poverty now as in 1965. the war on poverty has been an abject failure and needs to go away. Take away the incentive to not work and the people will find a way to survive.

Posted July 19, 2011 at 1:57:51 PM


RedCar

Mr. Kudlow's article is very close to what a budget/debt ceiling deal should look like. The comments of the various respondents show how complex the entire issue has become. There are a host of individual issues that need to be addressed, some practical, some philosophical, some big, some small It is simply not realistic to think a century of government growth and intrusion on our freedom can be undone in the short term. It will take years and the political will to continue will have to be gained and maintained. That is your challenge, citizens. To paraphrase Marcus, we want a start to be made and I would add, we want clear direction to develop a comprehensive program to continue the process over many years to come. Republicans are you listening? Conservatives? Democrats? Anyone?

Posted July 19, 2011 at 2:20:51 PM


keycat

@Gelio - what concerns me is another off-radar story about Holder aggressively pursuing banks [in a bad way!] that are not making as many minority mortgage loans as "non-minority" mortgages, regardless of income or ability to repay. seriously? do these guys not get the connection b/w what was done in the clinton era so "everyone can have a house" - the American Dream gone haywire? --- and, btw, i really liked your post!!

Posted July 19, 2011 at 2:55:35 PM


COS911

There is an easy starting point--take the 2008 Federal Budget, before all the Keynsian excess for the recent recession (which did nothing anyway), and make that the baseline. The 2012 Budget should not exceed that number. Since then the Feds have said that there hasn't been any inflation (as indicated by the lack of Social Security CPI adjustments), then the Federal budget shouldn't be any higher either. Then start cutting. Any program that wasn't in existance in 2009 should be easy to eliminate--we didn't need it then, and we don't need it now. Follow that with elimination of all direct subsidy payments to any industry or agriculture group; it's time they all stand on their own. Then take the entire tax code, through it out and put the whole thing in 10 pages or less. That should be more than sufficient and can be revenue nuetral. Any tax code longer than 10 pages is simply a subsidy to lawyers and accountants and needs to end also.

Posted July 19, 2011 at 3:02:47 PM


Aaron Stovall

The correct business tax rate is 0%. Businesses are just a group of people working for a common purpose. Businesses don't pay taxes--people do. Businesses factor taxes into their cost of doing business to determine prices, wages, dividends, expansion/investment, etc.

Business taxes are nothing more than misdirection about who is actually paying the taxes, which would be customers, employees, shareholders and owners.

Any other business tax rate than 0% is a result of political hack sophistry.

Posted July 19, 2011 at 7:08:28 PM


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