New Reality Emerging on Illegal Immigration

· Thursday, July 14, 2011

The United States is a country that has been peopled largely by vast surges of migration -- from the British Isles in the 18th century, from Ireland and Germany in the 19th century, from Eastern and Southern Europe in the early 20th century, and from Latin America and Asia in the last three decades.

Going back in history, almost no one predicted that these surges of migration would begin -- and almost no one predicted that they would stop when they did.

Thus when the 1965 Immigration Reform Act was passed, almost no one predicted that we would have massive immigration from Mexico. Experts told us that immigrants came in large numbers only from Europe.

The experts got that wrong. From 1980 to 2008, more than 5 million Mexicans legally entered the United States. And Mexicans account for about 60 percent of the estimated 11 million illegal immigrants in the U.S. today.

Immigration policymakers have assumed that the flow of Mexican immigrants would continue indefinitely at this high level. But now evidence is accumulating that this vast surge of migration is ending.

The Pew Hispanic Center, analyzing Census statistics, has estimated that illegal Mexican entrants have been reduced from 525,000 annually in the 2000-04 years to 100,000 in 2010.

"The flow has already stopped," Douglas Massey of the Mexican Migration Project at Princeton recently told The New York Times. "The net traffic has gone to zero and is probably a little bit negative."

One reason is the deep recession and slow economic recovery here in the United States. Tens of thousands of construction jobs, once plentiful in high-immigration states, have disappeared. Foreclosures on mortgages that should never have been granted have been especially high among Hispanics.

State laws, like Arizona's law requiring use of the federal e-Verify system to check on immigration status of new hires, have clearly had some impact. And the cost of crossing the border illegally has sharply increased.

The Pew Hispanic Center estimates the 2010 illegal population at 11.2 million, down from the 2007 peak of 12.0 million and just about the same level as in 2005. It's probably lower today.

Even more important, things have changed in Mexico. Its birth rate has fallen from 7 children per woman in 1971 to 3.2 in 1990 and 2 in 2010, barely enough to prevent population loss.

Mexico has finally become a majority middle-class country, former Foreign Minister Jorge Castaneda argues in his recent book "Manana Forever?" Mexico has more cars and television sets than households now, most Mexicans have credit cards, and there are almost as many cell phones as people.

There has been a boom in higher education, especially in technical schools. The increasing numbers of well-educated Mexicans have no need to go to the United States to live a comfortable and even affluent life. Mexico has grown its way out of poverty.

The historic experience has been that countries cease generating large numbers of immigrants when they reach a certain economic level, as Germany did in the 1880s. Mass migration from Puerto Rico, whose residents are U.S. citizens, ended in the early 1960s, when income levels reached one-third of those on the mainland.

All of which has implications for U.S. immigration policy. It seems clear that tougher enforcement measures, like requiring use of e-Verify, can reduce the number of illegals in the United States. Returning to Mexico is a more attractive alternative than it used to be.

And the desire of legal immigrants to bring in collateral relatives under family reunification provisions is likely to diminish. That means we can shift our immigration quotas to higher-skill immigrants, as recommended by a panel convened by the Brookings Institution and Duke University's Kenan Institute and as done currently by Canada and Australia.

Such a change would be in line with the new situation. Mexican immigrants have tended to be less educated and lower-skill than immigrants from other Latin or Asian countries. Lower Mexican immigration means lower low-skill immigration. Employers of such immigrants may have to adjust their business models.

Probably they are already doing so. But government adjusts more slowly.

Barack Obama has been calling for immigration legislation similar to what George W. Bush sought, legislation geared to a status quo that no longer exists and seems unlikely to return. That's going nowhere. But sooner or later we should adjust the law to address the new emerging reality.

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Comments

Jeremy

Mr. Barone writes that "...increasing numbers of well-educated Mexicans have no need to go to the United States to live a comfortable and even affluent life." I wouldn't argue with that, but there are still 10's of millions of Mexicans who live in abject poverty. When the U.S. economy picks up and/or the Mexican economy slips, a lot of those poor people will want to come here. Add to that the lure of eventual amnesty/citizenship, and I don't see the onslaught of illegal immigration from south of the border ending any time soon. Tougher laws and an enforced border would make a real difference, but such laws are sure to be gutted by activist judges and neither political party really wants to create an impermeable border.

Even if Mr. Barone's rosy scenario does come true, we will have to live with the negative consequences of decades of massive illegal immigration. In effect, we have imported poverty from Mexico on a grand scale. Once rooted, poverty is exceeding difficult to uproot.

Posted July 14, 2011 at 9:27:34 AM


Sapient

Jeremy

Ditto Sir...

How long will it take us to recover from the embracing of lawlessness this represents:

--the negative effects of voter fraud,

--MS13, drunk drivers,

--murdered police,

--child porn and predators,

--drugs,

--hospital systems in chaos,

--school system chaos, etc...a

All that, not to mention the "others" who came into our nation along the same routes...

And of course, the monies that are sent directly back to Mexico from our Government.

Posted July 14, 2011 at 11:07:29 AM


Abu Nudnik

Good news. The slipping below replacement birthrate (2 live births per woman is less than is needed) is the surest indication of, not only increasing prosperity but an interest in maintaining it.

Posted July 14, 2011 at 12:27:30 PM


Sapient

Abu

The "over population" myth and resultant policies of the 1960's is how we got to where we are today, with not enough workers and tax payers.

Hmmmm...maybe we can go down there and work huh?

God bless

Posted July 14, 2011 at 2:03:28 PM


PDK

Michael, I would love to believe all that you have written but, I cannot. First though, with illegal immagration down, now would be the time to raise the fence. Personally I would prefer a hugh wall, a statement wall, but to many American citizens of the liberal mindset say no.

Illegal Mexicans raise their children, born in America to be Mexicans with American rights, this not only dillutes American culture, not only impugns real Americans, it breeds democrat voters as well. The democrat party should have gone along the way of the dinosaurs, the way of extinction. The socialism of the democrat party would have died out with the democrats, but first, second, and probably third generation Mexicans vote democrat. This allows the liberal mindset to continue their dream of a marxist utopian culture, with democrat leaders at the top, fat and powerful, looking down on their lowly flock, the American citizenry, wallowing in poverty and tyranny.

I would take solace in your column, and I hope there is some semblence of truth there. I for one however, will only believe it when I see it, and I am quite sure I will never see it.

NAFTA has fatten Mexico greatly, and this has come at an unfair cost, and an unfair price to Americans. Let us now get something for the unfair economic exchange. Let America build the wall, real shovel ready jobs, or if not the wall at least the full 2000 mile fence. Except for the fact that democrats are in controll, now would be the oppertunity to be seized, let us seize it.

Posted July 14, 2011 at 2:43:36 PM


Sapient

PDK

I could not agree more.

The very act of illegal immigration violates the sine qua non principles of America...that we are a nation of equal protection under the law, and that We have the right to choose who we want to associated with and allow among us...

...that certainly not being those who violate our laws and nation from the beginning. To enter a home uninvited by the owner, is at best the crime of trespassing, and quite possibly a home invasion, legitimately repelled by force.

Thomas Jefferson put it this way:

"Born in other countries, yet believing you could be happy in this, our laws acknowledge, as they should do, your right to join us in society, conforming, as I doubt not you will do, to our established rules."

He said a mouthful...not only that they do so by our established rules, the first being how they arrive, but further, that they wish to join us at all rather than plunder us as an invader would...

Illegal immigrants are quite literally saying to us that WE do not have the right to accept or reject based on OUR criteria. They are expressing contempt for our sovereignty, our property rights, etc.

Is that the kind of person we want to join us here in fellowship of society? I think not, for they cannot be trusted to do what is good for the nation, but only themselves and the nation they bear true allegiance to, at the expense of others.

I say, "If you want to live among the law abiding, and reap the blessings of liberty, show yourself worthy of that liberty by being law abiding."

That's me.

God bless

Posted July 14, 2011 at 2:59:26 PM


Tony in MO

I take exception to Mr. Barone's estimate of the number of illegal aliens in this country. The numbers 11 million and 12 million have been bandied about for over a decade, while the true numbers would more closely approach over 20 million. Furthermore, to depend on the credibility of a Pew Hispanic Center statistic of the current rate of illegal entries is foolish. Illegal immigration from Mexico and Central America exceeds 100,000 per year by FAR! Even Mexico admits that fully over 10% of their ENTIRE POPULATION is living in the U.S. illegally. What's even more infuriating is that, with the financial mess this country is in, Mexico is whining about having to contend with all those Mexicans who are returning back to their home country and in need of social services.

Not only that, but Janet Napolitano and her counterpart, John Morton, of ICE have both doctored statistics on the rate of illegal immigration numbers, making it appear as though illegal immigration is down when in actuality, it remains high and will continue to remain high until our government gets serious about enforcement.

Posted July 14, 2011 at 3:44:42 PM


PDK

I believe Michael we are up against sophistry.

Posted July 14, 2011 at 5:03:13 PM


M Rick Timms, MD

This is problem #1 for our country.

All other problems can be resolved by enforcing the immigration laws of this country.

Effectively close the border. That is what the National Guard is for -- Guarding the Nation.

Then deal with the 20 million here illegally. It's called a "plea Bargain". Give them 90 days to come forward and be identified, and put on the tax plan. Based on idividually circumstances of education, work status, and clean criminal record (apart from the obvious violation of immigration and tax laws for which they are seeking a plea bargain) they will be allowed to pay a significant/large fine, stay for a limited period of 12-18 months with detailed review at that time.

Those who make a Plea Bargain get no path to citizenship. They may choose to get in line behind all those doing it the right way - and apply for a Green Card.

At the end of 90 days, any illegal found here will be fingerprinted and deported, and never allowed back in the US.

Carrot and Stick. The criminals, and reconquisttas will not come forward and will eventually be found and deported. Those that are willing to work and become assiminlated into our society as Americans, are given a chance to contribute legally.

Close the border now while the tide is low!

Posted July 14, 2011 at 6:05:57 PM


Sapient

PDK

RE: I believe Michael we are up against sophistry.

Sir...you are a much kinder man than I.

For my money, they are rogues, the lot of them, and should be treated as such.

In Texas we have what is called "The Castle Doctrine"....we are not particularly fond of aiding and abetting either.

God bless

"Where the principle of difference [between political parties] is as substantial and as strongly pronounced as between the republicans and the monocrats of our country, I hold it as honorable to take a firm and decided part and as immoral to pursue a middle line, as between the parties of honest men and rogues, into which every country is divided." --Thomas Jefferson to William Branch Giles, 1795. ME 9:317

Posted July 14, 2011 at 11:03:56 PM


Merry Colin

I'll just cut and paste as I wrote in response to the Linda Chavez column:

This woman is as stupid as a stump! I LIVE in Arizona and this biatch is telling lies just like the SOB we have in the WH.

Hey Linda--- try going here and SEE what these scumbags have done to our state.

http://www.marstonchronicles.info/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=490&Itemid=1337.

The pictures are undeniable; even a libtard like you can get it IF YOU CARE TO! When there are signs posted by the federal gubmint a full 60 miles inside OUR border telling us is is dangerous to be there and to stay out, I say it's time we rise up and defend our own borders, State by State. We don't need your, or the federal gubmint lies, to tell us what's happening in OUR State. You are a liar, plain and simple.

It appears Barone is just another Chavez.

Posted July 15, 2011 at 1:55:09 PM


Clarence E. DeBarrows

Sounds great, Michael, but it's all rosy rhetoric calculated conjecture until we SECURE OUR SOUTHERN BORDER AND ENFORCE THE LAW!

Posted July 17, 2011 at 1:07:22 PM


karo pones

This country is collapsing under the weight of millions of immigrants mostly illegals from Mexico and their astronomical birth rate, idiotically supported by the gullible American tax payer.

Posted July 18, 2011 at 5:42:16 PM


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