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What the Debt Limit Battle Is All About
· Monday, July 18, 2011
It's hard to keep up with all the arguments and proposals in the debt limit struggle. But what's at stake is fundamental.
The bedrock issue is whether we should have a larger and more expensive federal government. Over many years, federal spending has averaged about 20 percent of gross domestic product.
The Obama Democrats have raised that to 24 or 25 percent. And the president's budget projects that that percentage will stay the same or increase far into the future.
In the process, the national debt as a percentage of gross domestic product has increased from a manageable 40 percent in 2008 to 62 percent this year and an estimated 72 percent in 2012. And it's headed to the 90 percent level that economists Kenneth Rogoff and Carmen Reinhart have identified as the danger point, when governments face fiscal collapse.
This is a level of spending as a share of the economy Americans haven't seen since World War II. It seems more like Europe than like the America we have known.
President Obama insisted in his somber press conference Friday that he is willing to reduce federal spending from these levels. But he remained vague on specifics and intransigent in his demand that any debt limit deal include "revenue," which translated into English means tax increases.
Mainstream media have pummeled Republicans for pushing spending cuts and refusing to support tax increases in connection with raising the debt limit.
But Republicans had a mandate from the voters in November 2010 to advance such policies. In contrast, it's not at all clear that voters in November 2008 gave Obama and the Democrats a mandate to increase non-defense discretionary spending by 24 percent (84 percent if you count the stimulus package) in 2009 and 2010.
In negotiations on the debt limit, Obama has fenced off several programs from any cuts at all. One is Obamacare, even though majorities in polls continue to favor its repeal.
Another is, astonishingly, the $53 billion he wants to spend on high-speed rail projects. To call high-speed rail a "boondoggle," as does House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan, is to engage in considerable understatement.
These projects include $715 million for construction of 100 miles of track between the small towns of Borden and Corcoran in California's Central Valley.
They include a train from Iowa City, Iowa, that will take longer to get to Chicago than already existing bus service and a train from Minneapolis to Duluth, Minn., that will average 69 miles per hour -- about what you could average on the parallel Interstate 35.
Obama has rhapsodized about the pleasure of walking to a train station and taking a high-speed rail trip to another city. But the great majority of Americans don't live within an easy drive of a train station.
He has called high-speed rail an "investment" in cutting-edge technology. But it's hardly cutting-edge: Japan debuted its bullet train in 1964, and France inaugurated its TGV in 1981.
As for investment, Oxford professor Bent Flyvbjerg analyzed results from dozens of rail projects in 20 countries over the last 70 years. He found that 75 percent ended up costing at least 24 percent over projections and 25 percent exceeded projections by more than 60 percent.
No wonder the governors of Wisconsin, Ohio and Florida have turned down federal money for rail projects that parallel interstate highways. They realize that their taxpayers would get stuck for inevitable cost overruns and operating deficits.
A high-speed rail line might make sense in the densely populated Northeast corridor between Washington and Boston, and as a Washingtonian who travels frequently to Manhattan I would love a faster train than the current Acela. But these projects make no sense in most of the rest of America.
High-speed rail is not the biggest item in the budget. But it's emblematic of the Obama Democrats' theory that government spending can stimulate the economy.
That theory has been pretty well demolished by the fact of 9.2 percent unemployment. The clear signal from both economic markets and political polls is that we should cut federal spending back from 25 percent of GDP toward 20 percent.
It's not clear how far the Republicans can move toward this goal in the debt limit battle, or whether they can move any distance at all. But it's worth trying if only to clarify the choice before voters next year.
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PDK
If I were President, my policy would be first, cut taxes, second cut spending, third lower debt.
Taxation should be cut first to grow the economy and create jobs, lowering unemployment and making room for more people to become employed.
Spending should be cut by reducing the bureaucracy, that means firing as much as 25% of federal employees who would then have jobs available in the enlarged by growth, free market. A few of the government programs such as NEA should be eliminated completely.
Americas debt over time should be reduced to zero, where it should forever stay, for we should by then have learned the common sensical reality of living within our means, like every normal matured person who has ever both worked for a living and paid his own bills.
This would sound the death bell for the democrat party unless they evolved into some other than, socialist purveying ideologists. This they will not do therefore America shall live in debt in purpetude.
It is this reality, and my awareness of it, that raises my Patrick Henry hackels, which in turn crow out, end the tyranny or end the Union, your choice liberals, your choice democrats.
If one dreams the dream, what a wonderfull world it could be. Thank you
Posted July 18, 2011 at 1:40:46 AM
PDK
Michael, may I also say that democrats, and their constituants, the liberals, can never play Texas Holdem poker and expect to win. In the game, the players that bet on every hand are the unsucessfull, for when they finally have a winning hand they have no money left to bet with, they blew it on all the other hands.
The high speed train idea sounds good when placed properly in the most densely populated areas, and therefore are by definition few and far between. However that money which would be well spent on the very few such projects has already been spent, and has been blown, by democrat socialist ideology on something else of lesser value. Perhaps if democrat spending was based solely on democrat taxation they could find a way to curb their insatiable appitite for spending. Just a thought.
Posted July 18, 2011 at 1:57:00 AM
Sapient
Ditto Michael and PDK
And, I have to tell you that I am MOST concerned about the GOP's Balanced Budget Amendment proposal...for it does not simply say "the budget must be balanced"...it shifts the way things are done, who has what powers, etc.
It says:
`Section 1. Total outlays for any fiscal year shall not exceed total receipts for that fiscal year, unless three-fifths of the whole number of each House of Congress shall provide by law for a specific excess of outlays over receipts by a rollcall vote.
`Section 2. The limit on the debt of the United States held by the public shall not be increased, unless three-fifths of the whole number of each House shall provide by law for such an increase by a rollcall vote.
`Section 3. Prior to each fiscal year, the President shall transmit to the Congress a proposed budget for the United States Government for that fiscal year in which total outlays do not exceed total receipts.
`Section 4. No bill to increase revenue shall become law unless approved by a majority of the whole number of each House by a rollcall vote.
`Section 5. The Congress may waive the provisions of this article for any fiscal year in which a declaration of war is in effect. The provisions of this article may be waived for any fiscal year in which the United States is engaged in military conflict which causes an imminent and serious military threat to national security and is so declared by a joint resolution, adopted by a majority of the whole number of each House, which becomes law.
`Section 6. The Congress shall enforce and implement this article by appropriate legislation, which may rely on estimates of outlays and receipts.
`Section 7. Total receipts shall include all receipts of the United States Government except those derived from borrowing. Total outlays shall include all outlays of the United States Government except for those for repayment of debt principal.
`Section 8. This article shall take effect beginning with the later of the second fiscal year beginning after its ratification or the first fiscal year beginning after December 31, 2016.'.
Personally, I am always uneasy when the Constitution is being monkeyed with.
My word to my Rep and Senator was that it matters little if a Balanced Budget Amendment is passed, even a good one...
....for the WHOLE ISSUE IS THAT CONGRESS DOES NOT FOLLOW THE CONSTITUTION WE HAVE NOW....which gives it enumerated powers, reserving the rest to the States and People.
Most of what it is doing is ALREADY unconstitutional...will the same people who scoff at the Constitution now suddenly became lawful?
I think not.
Smoke screen.
God bless
Posted July 18, 2011 at 9:43:06 AM
JTG
If the intent is to close the loopholes for the rich, let's start with Mr. & Mrs. Pelosi and close the loopholes enjoyed by the both of them. Next Jay Rockefeller and then John Kerry and his wife. You can keep going as these people became rich by creating their own loopholes. They need to "eat some peas" and put their money where thrie mouths are. Then they would have some skin in the game.
Posted July 18, 2011 at 11:42:35 AM
Robert A. Hall
Great column; I will link to it from my Old Jarhead blog. We are very close to the tipping point from with recovery will not be possible. Failure to control spending, a larger terrorist attack and/or the collapse of the EU could all drug us into the abyss. I fear 2012 will be our last chance, and what is needed so painful that the public will not support it now, enduring disaster and bloodshed later instead.
Robert A. Hall
Author: The Coming Collapse of the American Republic
(All royalties go to a charity to help wounded veterans)
Posted July 18, 2011 at 12:23:55 PM
TJS
The national debt is $14.4 trillion. GDP is about $14.8 trillion. National debt is therefore 97% of GDP, rising $4.5 billion per day. Within months debt will be 100% of GDP. Counting only "public debt" ignores the roughly $4.5 trillion embezzled from the trust funds like social security, Medicare, and civilian and military pensions. Ignoring those debts minimized the problem and plays into the hands of the socialists.
The US economy will not recover until we slash government from its current 61% of GDP - government spending is 41% of GDP and regulations are another 20% of GDP. We are a virtually socialist nation, and will have slow growth, high unemployment, and frequent recessions until we resume being a free market economy.
We must kill socialism before it kills our economy and our republic. Europe is showing us our future - economic chaos and collapse.
Posted July 18, 2011 at 12:44:52 PM
Brad ONeal
The problem is that the US gave away its sovereign right to issue its own money to a for profit privately held central bank. Why does the US have debt? Why doesn't the government print its own dollar bills instead of borrowing them and immediately owing interest to the big Fed banks? Our income taxes pretty much fund transfer payments to the big banks. The intent of the Founding Fathers has been turned on its head. Now think about the incentives that Congress has to push debt. They get rewarded by Wall Street bankers to vote the right way to increase debt by war and/or welfare.
The problem is that we gave away our money supply. The solution is to print US dollar bills to pay our debt, nationalize the banks, and end the income tax! Check out the book "The Web of Debt" by Ellen Brown for answers on finding our way out of this morass. Also check out these videos on youtube: Money as Debt 2 Promises Unleashed: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_doYllBk5No
The Money Masters: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lXb-LrVkuwM
The solutions are not in the main stream media because they are owned and controlled by the banks.
Posted July 18, 2011 at 1:09:21 PM
RamonaG
So...I thought I was doing everything "right". I did not spend beyond my means; I paid off any credit cards as I used them; I bought a vehicle, though not the one I wanted, the one I could (barely) afford; I bought my condo, and did most of the improvements myself in order to save money. I work full-time and have lost 15% of my income due to furloughs. And now: I AM spending beyond my means because no matter what I do, I cannot get ahead of the debt chasing me down! I have had to resort to using credit cards for emergencies, like auto issues, health care (simply because my HMO doctors are a joke!), and any household issues (like the fact that my AC broke down even though it is less than 5-yrs old!). I cannot sell my condo in this Godforsaken state (CA) and after refinancing through Fannie Mae (it was the only way to get it), now the government literally owns my home and of course I cannot get a lower rate, etc., because the market values have decreased so much! Unfortunately, I cannot raise my debt limit - I am seeking additional employment in order to get out of this predicament - too bad no one is hiring!!!! Maybe I should just go on "welfare"; after all,if the Feds can do it, why not me? Talk about killing any initiative!
Posted July 18, 2011 at 2:08:34 PM
OL'Joe
Negotiating reasonably with Mr. Obama will never solve the current national economic crisis. He has shown he will deceive the American people to get HIS way. Whatever he says we will do in exchange for the Republicans allowing him to retain any part of his agenda, he and his Democratic Party and media enablers will quickly disregard.
Posted July 18, 2011 at 5:01:11 PM
Sapient
JTG
Lets remember what a loophole is...they were deliberately put into tax law to encourage certain kinds of activity. If you want drilling, you give a tax break. If you want charitable giving, you let people take it off their taxes.
These people who are decrying loopholes are the ones who put them in the tax code in the first place.
These are the ones who have resisted a flat tax where everyone pays the same percentage...they say that is not fair.
Go figure.
Its about power, pure and simple.
God bless
"Where the principle of difference [between political parties] is as substantial and as strongly pronounced as between the republicans and the monocrats of our country, I hold it as honorable to take a firm and decided part and as immoral to pursue a middle line, as between the parties of honest men and rogues, into which every country is divided." --Thomas Jefferson to William Branch Giles, 1795. ME 9:317
Posted July 18, 2011 at 10:37:47 PM
JeffInCR
Playing fair, or being fair, for everyone. This is what the President says he wants to do with his version of tax reform. How can getting rid of a tax break on corporate jets, which he crows will net $5 Billion a year over the next ten, be fair against a deficit of over $4 Trillion during the same period?
The tax code is nothing but a tangled web of federal social engineering, as Mr. Barone alluded to. That no one in Congress is serious about ending the engineering means that both sides of the aisle are convinced of their own (im)moral superiority that they can say to the people "Do as we say and don't live beyond your means, while we do that very thing with your money." And the key words there are "with your money".
Taxes are not the government's money, though they may believe it is. They are funds taken from taxpayers to perform those functions that only the government can do: run courts and post offices, raise and maintain an army and navy, provide for the enforcement of laws. I seem to have read that some where...I think it was in the Constitution, a document that I once swore uphold and defend, but which the administration at all has turned its back on.
End the social engineering and make the tax code fair. Make it cheaper to pay your taxes than to find shelters. Get rid of tax breaks, deductions and credits for corporations and lower their tax rates. Will they pay more than they do now? Yes, but it will be cheaper for them to do so.
At the same time, do the same tax leveling on the private citizen. If you are going to tax, tax fairly and evenly. Disallow the deductions and breaks that permit CEO's to pay less in taxes than their assistants.
Will these companies hire more people just because their bottom line gets fatter? Most likely not at first, but it will trickle down. Between the Laffer Curve and trickle down economics we can bring the country back. Then we can tackle the problems of entrenched entitlements the career politicians who love to live beyond our means.
After all, the politician who promises to give you everything will always have the support of those who want to be given everything. And we cannot afford that.
Posted July 19, 2011 at 11:49:58 AM
richard
I keep hearing this word mandate. so they took controll of the house. how does this allow the rep. the right too let business in the us to move their profits overseas to avoid paying taxes on them. then force the working people and the poor to make up for the lost revenue. I agree that spending needs to be cut. but it needs to be balanced approach.
Posted July 29, 2011 at 11:49:15 AM