Russia’s military presence in Syria is making headway for Bashar al-Assad’s government troops. This week the Islamic State suffered a big blow with the help of Kremlin-backed airstrikes. CBS News reports, “Syrian government forces on Tuesday broke a siege imposed by the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) on a northern military air base since 2013, marking the first major achievement by President Bashar Assad’s troops since Russia began its airstrikes in late September, state media said.” CBS described the multi-year battle as “a major victory for the government against ISIS — which controls nearly half of Syria. Syrian troops tried in the past to reach the air base with no luck but Russian airstrikes appear to have helped in forcing ISIS from the area.” It may be a Syrian victory, but Putin’s fingerprints are all over it. And his motives are becoming clearer by the day.

For starters, Russia appeared ambivalent toward Assad as recently as last week. The Associated Press wrote on Nov. 3 that “a Russian foreign ministry spokeswoman said … Moscow does not consider it a matter of principle that Syrian President Bashar Assad should stay in power.” Yet the same report added, “Russia is believed to be Assad’s strongest backer and has previously balked at the West’s suggestions that the Syrian president should be ousted.” What to make of these conflicting narratives?

Well, fast forward to today. “Russia has circulated a document on ending the nearly five-year-old Syrian conflict that calls for drafting a new constitution in up to 18 months that would be put to a popular referendum and be followed by an early presidential election,” the AP reported today. “The document … makes no mention of Syrian President Bashar Assad stepping down during the transition — a key opposition demand. It only mentions that ‘the president of Syria will not chair the constitutional commission.’” Whatever the case, Russia’s call for a referendum is eerily reminiscent of what happened in Crimea, which was annexed (read: conquered) by Putin following a “referendum.”

Obviously, we don’t know the details of the proposed referendum in Syria, but one thing is clear: Putin is less interested in what happens to Assad than what happens with Syria (for its oil resources if nothing else). In the end, he will do whatever it takes to expand Russian influence. And he’ll use devious tactics like he did in Crimea. Say what you will about him, but Putin is cunning when it comes to foreign policy. Too bad we don’t have a president strong enough to match it.