The Patriot Post® · Understanding Trump's Iran Memorandum
President Donald Trump has been teasing a deal with Iran since the middle of March, just a couple of weeks after the initial operations were launched. By early April, he announced a ceasefire that, as the weeks progressed, didn’t have much “cease” to it. Well, here we are, with the 14 points (transcribed below from a Trump administration official’s reading) of a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) to keep working toward a final deal. This isn’t the actual deal.
It doesn’t seem like we’ve achieved much, and I can’t say I’m full of confidence yet.
There are a couple of huge reasons for that. Namely, two of the 14 points outline how the U.S. will make money available now in exchange for promises of future actions. “Trust, but verify,” Ronald Reagan famously said. Memo to the Trump administration.
The U.S. “undertakes with regional partners to develop a definitive, mutually agreed plan with at least USD $300 billion for the reconstruction and economic development of the Islamic Republic of Iran,” reads point six. Point 11 adds a promise “to make fully available for use the frozen or restricted funds and assets of the Islamic Republic of Iran … during the negotiations” [emphasis added]. That frees up roughly $24 billion.
Meanwhile, point nine says, “The Islamic Republic of Iran will maintain the current status quo of its nuclear program, and the United States of America will not impose any new sanctions and will not deploy additional forces in the region.” The MOU concedes that Iran still has “nuclear needs,” and the only reference to enriched uranium is “down-blending on-site under the supervision of the IAEA.” That comes pretty much straight from Barack Obama’s 2015 Iran deal, orchestrated by Traitor John Kerry — the one Trump ditched in his first term.
So, after blowing Iran’s military to smithereens in the first 40 days or so of combat operations, we’re going to … give the radical Islamic and apocalyptic mullahs of Tehran a bunch of money and allow their (Peaceful!™) nuclear program to continue, essentially in exchange for a promise to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. And even that language implies that Iran may be permitted to exact tolls from passing ships.
Obama’s presidential library is opening tomorrow, but I didn’t realize he was still delivering pallets of cash to the Iranians.
Okay, that’s overly harsh, to make a point. However, as our Mark Alexander cautions, “Trump knows the only way to herd these squirrels is through incremental steps. The optics are bad, but I think the process is not as bleak as the MSM and some conservatives make it out to be.”
If things don’t work out, Trump threatened that the bomb-dropping will continue until morale improves.
“We’re gonna bomb the hell out of them if they violate the agreement,” Trump told reporters on Wednesday. “If it doesn’t get done in 60 days, that’s all right. We go back to bombing,” he added. “I don’t want to do that because [the MOU is] so good, but we might have to because we’re never going to let them have a nuclear weapon.”
Historian Victor Davis Hanson argues, “If we’re willing to … hit them hard every time they break it, then it might eventually work.”
We’ll see. President Trump already “bombed the hell out of them” last year in Operation Midnight Hammer, and again this year in Operation Epic Fury. The second operation was necessary because the first wasn’t as successful as Trump’s boasts suggested. Somehow, the regime stood the test and doesn’t appear to have conceded a whole lot.
The Iranians’ ballistic missile and drone stockpiles were conspicuously absent from the MOU. “We knocked out probably 84, 85% of their missiles,” argued President Trump. Besides, he added, “Missiles aren’t the problem. Missiles, they hurt a little location, but they don’t blow up the planet.” Well, missiles, drones, and mines are how the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has effectively held the Strait of Hormuz hostage. Missiles, as Trump himself noted in 2018, “could deliver nuclear warheads.” That seems like a problem to me.
Neither does the MOU contain any provision for Iran’s support and direction of proxy terrorists in the region. The only mention of it is in point one, which specifies “the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon.”
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu doesn’t seem to be on board with leaving Hezbollah alone because Hezbollah will never leave Israel in peace. “Just the other day,” notes Ben Shapiro, “Hezbollah literally attacked northern Israel. Israel then went after Dahiya, which is where Hezbollah’s leadership lives. And President Trump called up the prime minister of Israel and yelled at him.”
As for the people of Iran, Trump promised early on that “help is on the way” should they choose to topple the regime in Tehran. Tens of thousands of slaughtered Iranians later, we haven’t heard much about any public uprising or effort at regime change in Iran. Perhaps that was never realistic, given the brutality of the Islamofascists in charge, but we shouldn’t forget the Iranian people.
Strategically, this deal is, as most things in life, full of tradeoffs. There are rarely silver bullets that solve every problem, as much as we’d like there to be. Trump is playing a long game, calculating that he has so critically handicapped Iran militarily that the mullahs understand the danger. He’s also playing a much shorter game, realizing that high gas prices and rising inflation are going to kill his party in the midterms — and thus for the remainder of his term — if he doesn’t do something fast.
Given that he refused to go to Congress, has weathered numerous rebukes by resolution, and didn’t fully make a case to the American people before launching operations, he knows he’s got a short leash.
Vice President JD Vance is dutifully making the case for Trump’s MOU. He explained, “What the agreement does is fundamentally set up a structure whereby if the Iranians behave like a normal country, then we want to treat them like a normal country and welcome them to the world economy.”
For the last half century, the radical Islamists in charge of Iran have repeatedly said loud and clear that they don’t want to “behave like a normal country.” They want to bring about the demise of the “Great Satan” and the apocalypse itself because of their deluded theology. This war and deal are, at best, a setback for them, and Trump is merely the latest in a long line of U.S. presidents to discover just how difficult Iran can be.
Right now, there remain more questions than answers. But on the bright side, the U.S. has killed Iran’s ayatollah and much of its leadership, destroyed most of Iran’s military capabilities, and no matter its desires, it will take a long time to rebuild.
Here is the text of the MOU’s 14 points:
1.) The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran and their allies in the current war, by signing this MOU, declare the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon, and undertake from now on not to initiate any war or any military operation against each other, and to refrain from the threat or use of force against each other, and ensuring the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Lebanon. The final deal will confirm the permanent termination of the war on all fronts, including in Lebanon, and other provisions of this paragraph.
2.) The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran undertake to respect each other’s sovereignty and territorial integrity and to refrain from interfering in each other’s internal affairs.
3.) The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran commit to negotiating and achieving the final deal in maximum 60 days, extendable with mutual consent.
4.) Immediately upon the signing of this MOU, the United States of America will begin the removal of its naval blockade and any disturbances or impediments against the Islamic Republic of Iran, and will fully end the naval blockade within 30 days. During this period, the traffic of vessels will be in proportion to the numbers of pre-war traffic being restored by the Islamic Republic of Iran. The United States of America further undertakes to remove its forces from the proximity of the Islamic Republic of Iran within 30 days after the final deal.
5.) Upon the signing of this MOU, the Islamic Republic of Iran will make arrangements using its best efforts for the safe passage of commercial vessels with no charge for 60 days only from the Persian Gulf to the Sea of Oman, and vice versa. The traffic of commercial vessels will immediately start, and considering the need for removing the technical and military obstacles and demining by the Islamic Republic of Iran will be instated within 30 days. The Islamic Republic of Iran will conduct dialogue with the Sultanate of Oman to define the future administration and maritime services in the Strait of Hormuz, in discussion with other Persian Gulf or littoral states, in line with the applicable international law and the sovereign rights of coastal states of the Strait of Hormuz.
6.) The United States of America undertakes with regional partners to develop a definitive, mutually agreed plan with at least USD $300 billion for the reconstruction and economic development of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The mechanism for the implementation of this plan will be finalized as part of a final deal within 60 days. All required licenses, waivers, and permissions needed for the relevant financial transactions will be granted by the United States of America.
7.) The United States of America undertakes to terminate all types of sanctions against the Islamic Republic of Iran, including the United Nations Security Council resolutions, IAEA Board of Governors resolutions, and all unilateral U.S. sanctions, primary and secondary, in an agreed-upon schedule as part of the final deal. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States of America acknowledge the critical importance of the sanctions termination issue above mentioned, and expressed their intentions to immediately address these issues in the negotiations in order to achieve mutual agreement on them.
8.) The Islamic Republic of Iran reaffirms that it shall not procure or develop nuclear weapons. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran have agreed to resolve the disposition of stockpile enriched material pursuant to a mechanism that will be mutually agreed upon in accordance with the schedule mentioned in paragraph seven, with the minimum methodology to be down-blending on-site under the supervision of the IAEA. The two parties also agreed to discuss the issue of enrichment and other mutually agreed matters related to the Islamic Republic of Iran’s nuclear needs, based on a satisfactory framework being agreed upon in the final deal. The final deal will confirm the provisions of this paragraph. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran acknowledge the critical importance of the nuclear issues above mentioned and express their intention to immediately address these issues in the negotiations in order to achieve mutual agreement on them.
9.) Pending the final deal, the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran agree to maintain the status quo. The Islamic Republic of Iran will maintain the current status quo of its nuclear program, and the United States of America will not impose any new sanctions and will not deploy additional forces in the region.
10.) The United States of America undertakes that immediately upon the signing of this MOU until the termination of sanctions, the U.S. Department of Treasury will issue waivers for the export of Iranian crude oil, petroleum products, and derivatives, and all associated services, including banking transactions, insurances, transportation, etc.
11.) The United States of America undertakes to make fully available for use the frozen or restricted funds and assets of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Upon the implementation of this MOU, the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran will mutually agree on the procedures related to the release of these funds during the negotiations. Such funds, whether retained in the original account or transferred, shall be made fully usable for payment to any ultimate beneficiary designed by the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The United States of America undertakes to issue all necessary licenses and authorizations accordingly.
12.) The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran agree that an executive mechanism will be established to monitor the successful implementation of this MOU and the future compliance of the final deal.
13.) After signing this MOU, and subject to the beginning of the implementation of paragraphs 1, 4, 5, 10, and 11 of the MOU, and the continuing implementation of these measures, the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran will start negotiations regarding the final deal exclusively on the other paragraphs.
14.) The final deal will be endorsed by a binding UNSC resolution.